David Pepper Profile picture
Feb 8 19 tweets 4 min read
THREAD:

You want to read a Court decision absolutely throttling an out-of-control legislature that refuses follow the law but thinks Ohio voters are too dumb to figure them out?

Then read this opinion.

But in the meantime, highlights follow:

supremecourt.ohio.gov/rod/docs/pdf/0…
"...the map drawers & the commission knew that their approach—starting w the invalidated map & switching competitive GOP-leaning districts to competitive Dem-leaning districts—would have the dual effect of eliminating weak GOP districts & creating weak Dem districts.

2/
"DiRossi and Springhetti still ultimately drafted the plan, and they answered only to Senate President Huffman and House Speaker Cupp. As before, “the commission itself did not engage in any map drawing or hire independent staff to do so.”

3/
"We clearly invalidated the entire original plan.... The commission’s choice to nevertheless start with that plan and change it as little as possible is tantamount to an intent to preserve as much partisan favoritism as could be salvaged from the invalidated plan."

4/
"It is also clear that the commission rejected, without explanation, easy and obvious changes that would have made the revised map more proportional."

5/
"[T]he commission knowingly adopted a plan in which all the House districts whose voters favor Republicans do so at vote shares of 52.6 percent and above, while more than a quarter (12 out of 42) of the House districts whose voters “favor” Democrats do so at a vote share..."

6/
"...between 50 and 51 percent (meaning that a 1 percent swell in Republican vote share would sweep 12 additional districts into the Republican column). Nine of those districts favor Democrats at a level under 50.5 percent."

7/
"While the Constitution does not require exact parity in terms of the vote share of each district, the commission’s adoption of a plan in which the quality of partisan favoritism is monolithically disparate is further evidence of a Section 6(A) violation."

8/
"The commission’s adoption of a plan that absurdly labels what are by any definition “competitive” or “toss-up” districts as “Dem-leaning”—at least when the plan contains no proportional share of similar “GOP-leaning” districts—is demonstrative of an intent to favor the [GOP]."
"[I]f a [GOP] candidate were to win in half of the 12 House districts in which the Dem vote share is between 50 & 51 percent, the GOP could expect to have a 63-36 majority...This is an even larger GOP majority than the one contemplated in the Sept. 2021 plan that we invalidated."
"Regardless, the revised plan’s structure guarantees that the 58 percent seat share for Republicans is a floor whereas the 42 percent seat share for Democrats is a ceiling."

11/
"[T]he commission members are all public servants...and they are entrusted with the solemn duty to draw a district plan that complies with the requirements of Article XI. They are charged with drawing a plan that inures to the benefit of not just one political party..."

12/
"...not just one constituency, but of Ohio as a whole...Members of the legislature selected to serve on the commission must be, in good faith, commission members first, setting aside their usual partisan modes. Section 6(A) directly prohibits actions in conflict w this principle"
"“By counting what are really toss-up districts as ‘Democratic-leaning’ in this way, the Commission’s methodology grossly overestimates the number of Democratic-leaning districts under the revised plan.”

13/
"Bluntly, the commission’s labeling of a district with a Democratic vote share between 50 and 51 percent (in one case, a district having a 50.03 percent vote share) as “Democratic-leaning” is absurd on its face."

14/
"When 12 of the 42 “Dem-leaning” House districts (i.e., more than 25%) are very close “toss-up districts” yet there are 0 “Republican-leaning” districts that are similarly close, the proportion of districts whose voters “favor” each party is not being assessed properly."

15/
"[C]ompetitive districts—which the 12 districts identified by Dr. Imai surely are, under any reasonable measure—must either be excluded from the proportionality assessment or be allocated to each party in close proportion to its statewide vote share."

16/
And this, at the end, is especially important: "The General Assembly established the date of the primary election, see R.C. 3501.01(E)(1), and it has the authority to ease the pressure that the commission’s failure to adopt a constitutional redistricting plan..."

17/
"....has placed on the secretary of state and on county boards of elections by moving the primary election, should that action become necessary."

In sum, gerrymandered legislative hacks...welcome to the woodshed!

END

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More from @DavidPepper

Feb 7
🚨 🚨

NEW WHITEBOARD

Frank LaRose’s shameful attack on @staceyabrams inspired today’s whiteboard. Which is:

Don’t define the battle for democracy as only being about “Never/For Trump.”

OH’s LaRose provides a case study of how its broader than that.

(Receipts follow)

WATCH:
Point 1: Here’s a story on the stunning error rate in Ohio’s purging process.

But that didn’t stop LaRose from moving forward with the purging process, only to make more errors.

2/

nytimes.com/2019/10/14/us/…
Here’s LaRose promising, in 2018, that “I want my party to win elections because we have better candidates and better ideas - not because we use modern GIS mapping software…to draw district lines better than the other party.”

3/

cleveland.com/opinion/2018/0…
Read 12 tweets
Feb 3
A BENGALS THREAD: Evolving into a Burrow-style Bengals fan:

The Bengals had just lost two home games in a row, falling to 7-6 and behind their rivals in the AFC North.

The team was heading to Denver, where we always lose

The once great season looked to be coming to an end

1/
And then something happened.

It was the 3rd quarter. We weren’t playing well and Denver was hanging around.

Bengals fans like me had seen this all before. Filled with dread about the inevitable end

But then, texting with my brother @dougpepper , I did something crazy…

2/
Somewhat tongue in cheek, against all that I was actually feeling at the time and 30 years of fan experience, I texted three words: “We got this.”

Doug responded in exactly the way I would’ve if he had sent the same message.

3/ Image
Read 16 tweets
Jan 28
THREAD

The rules greatly constrained what they could do re Cincinnati. Thank the voters for that, not the legislators.

The heist was in then carving Hamilton county 3 ways, carving out Dem north central parts of the county and placing them in the 8th district to offset the

1/
…parts of the City they were forced by the new rules to add.

They then added Warren County to bail Chabot out for another decade.

A fair district would leave the County largely intact, w only a small portion allocated into another district. No need for Warren at all.

2/
.@CincySeitz — you know there’s simply no good defense of such an egregious gerrymander.

And you know that if you do it again it will be struck down again.

If you’re confident in Chabot, as you say, give the people of the County a fair district and ask their representative…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26
THREAD:

Late last night, those challenging the latest round of maps filed objections which made an incredibly strong argument about how Huffman and his gang of lawbreakers once again violated the Constitution.

Here are some of the lowlights:

1/

supremecourt.ohio.gov/pdf_viewer/pdf…
1. “the Commission chose once again to engage in a highly secretive, one-sided partisan process, [and] employed technical maneuvers to flout notice requirements….the Commission did not make data use relying the [plan] available until after its adoption….”

2/
2. In response to questions about the GOP map, “Co-chair Cupp jumped in to assert that the map-drawers had ‘given the answer that they can give’ and abruptly recessed the meeting.”

“As soon as the meeting resumed, Huffman immediately moved to adopt the [] proposal.”

3/
Read 10 tweets
Jan 25
THREAD

In 1993, right out of college, I was honored to do research for Zbigniew Brzezinski.

As brilliant as it gets, he was also an incredibly nice man, who had to get his tennis match in every day.

While others were celebrating Yeltsin and the…

1/

usatoday.com/story/news/202…
new Russia, my primary assignment for Dr. Brzezinski was to do deep and continuing research on the “new” Ukraine. It’s politics. Economics. Etc.

No one else was talking about Ukraine. But it’s all he wanted me to do.

Regular reports & a longer paper

(Before the Internet)

2/
He then explained it.

As he said then, Ukraine is the key. If Ukraine is a strong country that stands on its own, Russia will remain within its borders and not be tempted to return to its past expansionist ways.

But a weakened Ukraine risks an expansionist Russia

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 19
THREAD

For Manchin to use the underdog Ohio effort—still not over—to justify not fulfilling HIS constitutional duty to guarantee democracy in states is truly cynical

If you’re gonna use our victory for your ends, Senator, come talk to those who led that effort

I’m happy to

1/
…arrange the meeting.

We’ll fill you in on all the attacks on democracy we’re fighting. Where we’ve fought back. Where we haven’t been able to.

And if you’re going to mention our success in striking those rigged maps down, know that that success in court occurred…

2/
because we added language to our constitution that sets clear rules on how to draw those districts

Those rules are quite similar to the rules in the Freedom to Vote Act, meaning people in all states would have a chance for fair districts as we may have here if we succeed

3/
Read 5 tweets

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