Most of you are wasting your lives chasing noise.
Indicators. News. Narratives.
Here’s the only card worth keeping by your screen.
Simple. Brutal: The Acid Trade Playbook
First, look at the trend.
Second, measure the risk.
Third, know your exit before you enter.
If you can’t do those three, you have no business pressing “buy.”
Test one fact. Just one.
Not a hundred signals. One line that can break your story.
If it doesn’t hold, walk away.
Risk assets are on a tear
Sure, there's a pullback
But the huge global carry from borrowing depreciating yen and buying US assets is in its ascendancy
The Fed is trapped by US growth
Ignore the aberration of today
The fiscal spend is baked in
It's a known entity that will underwrite US GDP into 2027
High US rates flood capital markets with the world's speculative capital
Sends asset prices to the stratosphere
The rest of the world (RoW) needs lower rates
ECB cuts will accentuate the draw into US markets
Inflate risk asset prices higher even more
BoJ rate hikes are a con...
Japanese trapped like the BoE in 1992
Yen rates today comparable to BoE at 12% on eve of Black Wednesday
Why ?
Because Japanese debt servicing already takes one third of government revenues at zero rates
In the twisted ballet of global trade, where market tales weave like specters in the shadows, Keynes glimpsed the riddle we face. Back in 44 at Bretton Woods, he rallied for a global trading realm aimed at regulating against persistent imbalances, but what we got is a far cry
The discourse on trade, if it even exists, is surely an oxymoron. I'm not certain it even reaches the dim hallways of technocracy. Myopic, unable to see the forest for the trees, policymakers consistently overlook the crux, the enduring gap between deficit and surplus nations.