It's been another 3 months, so I figured it's a good time to again break out COVID county-level, 2-dose, total population vaccination rates for all 50 states.
Again, I use CDC data for most states, w/state health dept. data for a few. 1/
ALABAMA: Fairly weak partisan correlation, mainly because the vaccination rate sucks pretty much EVERYWHERE. It does form an odd snake shape, though.
The graph on the right (w/out background graphics/etc) includes children 5-11 only.
ALASKA: AK has always been all over the place on COVID vaccination rates. Bristol Bay has supposedly vaxxed *over* 100% of its population which is impossible; this is caused by a variety of factors including error margin etc. I've set a max cap of 98% for any county's vaxx rate.
ARIZONA: A pretty strong correlation..but this is a case where the CDC's data is completely at odds w/@AZDHS data, which claims that both Apache & Najavo Counties (which CDC puts at nearly 100% vaxxed) are only around ~48% vaxxed apiece. Possible data overlap w/Navajo Nation??
ARKANSAS: Again, very little slope or correlation; again, this is because nearly *every* county is doing terribly at this point (Over a year in, any w/less than 60% of their total population 2-dose vaxxed is doing pretty poorly IMHO).
CALIFORNIA: The Big One, in more ways than one. A rather stunning slope & correlation...the R^2 is nearly 0.73.
This is also the only state I've completed the 5-11 yr old version for...and it shows nearly the same pattern. Sad.
COLORADO: Stunning. An even *stronger* R^2 correlation, over .076.
CT, DE, DC, HI, RI: None of them have more than a handful of counties, making a scatter plot kind of pointless, so I lump them together just for completeness. I've made a "no county is 100% vaxxed" exception for Kalawao County, HI which has only 82 residents, all of whom are 50+.
FLORIDA: Decent correlation, & the 5-11 yr old graph is just sad. Big outliers: Sumter County (makes sense since it's home of The Villages, the huge MAGA retirement community)...and Miami-Dade County, which I still believe is MASSIVELY overstating their vaxx rate.
GEORGIA. Like other Southern/Deep South states, Georgia has a fairly mild slope...again, mostly because the vaxx rate is poor in nearly *every* county.
IDAHO. I've heard conflicting feedback from different statisticians: Some say an R^2 isn't significant unless it's over 0.6 or so. Others say that when *both* the X *and* Y axes are based on *individual human decisions*, it's significant at a far lower level.
Idaho is 0.61 FWIW.
ILLINOIS. Looking at the 2nd graph, all I can think is that Illinois Republicans must really hate their children.
OK, I'm taking a breather for a bit; I'll continue the thread soon.
Meanwhile, if you want to support my work, you can do so here, thanks! acasignups.net/support
Update: Unfortunately I’m having some technical issues which will delay the rest of this series. Stay tuned…
OK, here's part 2...for technical reasons I'm only posting the "full population" graphs for now. Hope to get the 5-11 yr old versions ready soon.
IOWA:
KANSAS:
KENTUCKY:
LOUISIANA. I still have no idea what the deal is with West Feliciana Parish, other than the LA State Penitentiary being located there.
MAINE. Yes, you're reading the R^2 correctly: Nearly 0.8.
MARYLAND:
MASSACHUSETTS. Both Dukes & Nantucket are supposedly *over* 100% 2-dose vaxxed; obviously that can't be the case. They're capped at 98%.
MICHIGAN, my home state.
MINNESOTA.
MISSISSIPPI.
COVID-19 has killed 1 out of every 259 Mississippians to date.
MISSOURI.
MONTANA.
NEBRASKA.
NEVADA.
NEW HAMPSHIRE.
NEW JERSEY.
NEW MEXICO. Yes, the R^2 is 0.77.
NEW YORK.
NORTH CAROLINA.
NORTH DAKOTA.
OHIO.
OKLAHOMA.
OREGON. R^2: 0.772
PENNSYLVANIA.
SOUTH CAROLINA.
SOUTH DAKOTA.
TENNESSEE.
TEXAS.
UTAH.
VERMONT.
VIRGINIA (warning: The CDC's vaxx data for Virginia is kind of strange, but the state health dept. dashboard doesn't allow for easy county-level export, so be forewarned).
WASHINGTON STATE:
WEST VIRGINIA:
WISCONSIN.
AND FINALLY...WYOMING.
And yes, the R-squared below is 0.8673.
Whew! There you have it: All 50 states, plus DC.
I hope to break out 5-11 yr olds soon (as well as only counting those < 65, since seniors tended to get vaxxed across the board last year).
If you'd like to support my work, you can do so here, thanks!
Thread. ~20 years ago, one of the minor controversies surrounding then-President George W. Bush was after being warned that something he wanted to do was unconstitutional, he allegedly angrily replied that the Constitution is "just a damned piece of paper!" 1/
I don't know whether this actually happened or not, but regardless of how appalling it my is, on the most basic level that's actually *correct*: The Constitution *in and of itself* *is* "just a damned peice of paper." It's not a talisman. It doesn't have any magical powers. 2/
The power of The Constitution is in the hands of whoever the American People happen to be at any particular point in time.
If those in charge *and* enough of those who aren't either actively want to ignore the Constitution or just don't care enough to defend it, guess what? 3/
🧵 I just had a lengthy conversation with someone who wanted some insight as to how I've been so successful with my Democratic fundraising project over the past few cycles.
(obviously it wasn't called that in 2020 or 2022) 1/Blue24.org
For those unaware, I've raised nearly $8 MILLION *directly* for hundreds of Democratic candidates since 2019. And I've done it *without* a mailing list or texting anyone. I've done it without a PAC or a staff.
It's all been done purely online via social media. 2/
The reason I started "formally" raising money for Democrats online (as opposed to just occasionally retweeting some candidates ActBlue link now & then) is because I kept seeing Dems griping that they didn't trust how the DCCC/DSCC was allocating funds, etc. 3/
I said it's our only *chance* of doing so. It would also require, within the next 4 years, either:
1. Both Alito & Thomas retire (hah) or pass away.
Or...
2. Congress passes legislation to either expand or otherwise modify SCOTUS.
Even THEN, the damage done by the SCOTUS majority (half of which appointed by Trump) *until* either of those things happens would still take YEARS or DECADES to repair.
And some of it can never be repaired.
...all because some of you refused to vote for Hillary in 2016.
As someone pushing HARD for folks to donate to Democrats up & down the ballot, I’d like to note something about the AIPAC money brouhaha re NY-16.
Yes, money CAN make a significant difference in a race, but only up to a point. After that there’s diminishing returns. 1/
My guess is the first few million dollars AIPAC spent on the NY-16 race probably helped Latimer by a point or two. After that, however, it probably didn’t make much difference at all & may have even hurt him a bit due to residents getting sick of the constant ads/mailers etc. 2/
As a different example, in 2020, the poster child for throwing money down the drain was Amy McGrath for Senate in KY. She raised an insane $90 million & lost by 20 points. Even more insane is she probably would have lost by about the same margin if she’d spent 1/10th as much. 3/
I just returned from my 4th road trip from Detroit to DC & back over the past 2 years. Since it's the same route each time I have a pretty apples to apples comparison on EV public chargers over time. 1/
The good news is that it looks like Electrify America, which makes up most of the chargers along the route (I-275/280, I-80/90 (OH Turnpike), I-70/270 (PA Turnpike), seems to be in the process of upgrading their charging stations; the newer ones seem to be more reliable. 2/
The bad news is that they've raised their prices substantially, at least at the stations along this route--they were usually $0.35/kWh 2 years ago; now they're charging $0.56/kWh.
By comparison, residential electricity in Oakland Cty, MI is around $0.18/kWh. 3/