Good morning! This is some great data about the yield curve, #Fed hiking cycles, and how markets / $SPX react. The short version? Don't listen to all the claptrap you'll undoubtedly hear about how an inverted curve "doesn't matter" and/or "doesn't mean anything" when ...
https://twitter.com/matthew_miskin/status/1491392430989807624
... the curve inverts in this cycle. My take has been since last spring (and remains so today) that it'll happen a LOT earlier in this hiking cycle than the Dudleys of the world predict. But also, don't "jump the gun" and get short the market when the curve is only flattening ...
... It takes TIME for flattening to turn to inversion, and inversion to turn to #recession. You can still make money in a late-cycle environment. You just won't make the most of it in the same sectors/stocks you made the most of it in the early- and mid-cycle phases. Or IOW...
... Follow my three-point investor plan: "Recognize. Comprehend. Adapt." Make adjustments to your holdings to reflect the changing market environment. Cheers!
weissratings.com/en/weiss-ratin…
weissratings.com/en/weiss-ratin…
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