Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #recession

Most recents (24)

The Fed had a chance to act. They didn't. Now, we're staring down the barrel of recession...

@DiMartinoBooth & @biancoresearch join forces to explore the fate of the 🌎 economy as #inflation rips across the planet & central banks try desperately to tame it.

🧵 👇
Let's start at the beginning... @DiMartinoBooth talks about what it was like working at the #Fed.

"It caused me to write a book."
The Fed was not able to generate inflation. Fiscal spending on the other hand, well, that's a different story...

"...You inject that kind of money directly into checking accounts, you're going to generate the mother of all inflations." @DiMartinoBooth
Read 5 tweets
More Pain Ahead.
Wonderful article from Credit Suisse
Must Read.

@564pankaj⁩ ⁦@JustPunforfun⁩ ⁦@gautam_icma⁩ ⁦@SubhadipNandy16⁩ ⁦@SahilKapoor⁩ ⁦@ankitapathak_⁩ ⁦@avasthiniranjan⁩ ⁦@virtual_kg

#Investing #Inflation #recession
Apocalypse Now.
Read 7 tweets
Citing the previous tweet
and adding more information hoping to help get a clear panoramic on increasing #foodprices and the increasingly looming narrative of #recession 👇
A massive backlog of #grains is piling up in #Ukraine to the tune of nearly 25 million tons due to "#infrastructure challenges" and blocked #ports in the #BlackSea, including #Mariupol - @Reuters reports 📰…
#Ukraine was the fourth-largest corn exporter in the 2020/21 season and the sixth-largest #wheat exporter in the world, according to the #IGC (International #Grains Council).…
Read 18 tweets
Why is no one talking about #Covid as a direct cause of inflationary pressure, and about how to address it?
#CostOfLivingCrisis #recession
~ Richard Murphy…
/2 "Brexit, Covid reopening, supply chain problems, profiteering, war disruption and sanctions are all plausible contributors to the inflation. None can be addressed, let alone solved, by an interest rate rise.
/3 In fact, by adding to inflationary pressure (increasing interest rate rises is an inflationary price increase, after all) such an increase can only make things worse.
2nd, I have so far not seen anyone suggest that the failure of #Covid policy is to blame. I am doing so now
Read 7 tweets
As was widely expected, the @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 50 basis points (bps), to between 0.75% and 1.0%, and announced the start of #runoff of the central bank’s balance sheet.
As previously suggested by the #Fed’s March minutes, the pace of runoff was confirmed today as $95 billion/month ($60 billion in U.S. #Treasuries and $35 billion in Agency #MBS, with a three-month phase-in period.
Also as expected, the statement reiterated that the #FOMC “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” underscoring the seriousness of #Fed policymakers in getting #inflation and inflation expectations under control.
Read 16 tweets
"Like all of us, love is a complex beast: only by embracing it in its entirety do we truly understand it, and ourselves. And this means understanding its evolutionary story, the good and the bad." -- Anna Machin…
A viral database is helping desperate Kenyans find fuel - Rest of World…
#KenyanStartup, #FuelSupplies, #FuelPrices, #CrowdsourcingData, #OpenSourceDatabase, #IkoWhere
The Great Resignation is becoming a “great midlife crisis” - Vox…
#GreatResignation, #MidlifeCrisis, #EarlyRetirement, #GreatReshuffle, #recession, #inflation
Read 13 tweets
Did you know that the US currently has $1.75 Trillion of Student Loan Debt!!

That is like ₹13,42,49,50,00,00,000.02 or simply put around ₹1.3 crore crores.
#studentloans #StudentDebtCrisis
This figure beats the GDP of Canada and would rank 10th in the world if compared in terms of the GDP size of different nations. This figure is significant because it accounts for 64% of our country's GDP!!
Coming to India, our country presently has a Student Loan Debt of ₹84,965 crores, or we can say around $11.08 Billion.

Compared to other countries, this seems very less. But it is indeed one prominent subject to ponder upon!
Read 20 tweets
History Repeats, Are we Listening ?

A Thread 🧵on Economic Cycles, Past & Present, What we Know and What we Do Not.

#Economics #Commodities #recession

@SahilKapoor @virtual_kg @avasthiniranjan @nsitharaman @564pankaj @JustPunforfun @riteshmjn @bloombergquint @PauloMacro
We are in a cycle of historical oscillation

Economic instability driven by a pathogen, reminiscent 2018; the outbreak of the Spanish Flu.

More than a century later, where do we go from here?

As a result of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with wars and economic shocks, are we at the beginning of a new supercycle of history?

What is an economic cycle, or oscillation ?
Read On....
Read 19 tweets
🇺🇸 #Fed (1) | As I expected ⬇, the Fed is on track to tighten its policy quickly and strongly for economic and political reasons.…
🇺🇸 #Fed (2) | On the economic front, Inflation is well above target and the risk of a wage/price spiral for low-income families has become real.
🇺🇸 #Fed (3) | Given that the labor market also looks tighter than indicated by the U.R., the Fed can easily justify a tightening move.
Read 9 tweets
Cost of living search trends 🧵:

Search interest in “food prices” and “housing prices” have reached 10-year highs this month, US Image
“gas apps to save money” tripled over the past 3 months in the US #GasPrices
“states with no income tax” more than doubled over the past 3 months in the US.

See what states people are searching for "cost of living in..." over the past year:
1. Hawaii
2. Texas
3. Tennessee
4. California
5. Arizona
Read 5 tweets
A Thread 🧵 on Yield Spread.


The U.S. Treasury yield spread is the difference between the Fed's short-term borrowing rate and the rate on longer-term U.S. Treasury notes.

The width of the yield spread helps to predict the state of the economy over the course of the next year.

Investors analyze the shape of the yield curve and the changes to its shape to gain a sense of economic expectations.

Read 22 tweets
Today minutes of March meeting of Federal reserve will be released which are expected to provide fresh details on its plans to reduce its bond holdings.

Next FOMC meeting is May. First week, May 3 - 4.

@JustPunforfun @564pankaj @tradeninvestor @virtual_kg

Hike of 0.5% in May, June and July expected along with rapid runoff of $9 Trillion balance sheet.

That is why 10Y bond yields are going crazy.

In a recent paper Harvard University's Larry Summers noted that since 1955 there has never been a time when wage growth exceeded 5% and the unemployment rate was below 5% that was not followed within two years by a recession.

Read 5 tweets

Global Macro Review - 04/03/2022


Why is #Quad4 consensus for Q2?

Because everyone KNOWS that both growth and inflation are “un-comp-able” vs Q2 2021

And right on cue, #Quad4 deflationary signals appeared this week ⚠️

Important note on trade (t) and Trend (T) this week

t = trade = 1-mo price change is comping against the March 7 commodity peak

T = Trend = 3-mo price change in comping against the #SPX ATH

The UST curve went from 🥞 to 🙃 as the 2Y ↗️ +18 BPS and the 10Y ↘️ -10 BPS to #inversion -7.2 BPS

Chart: 10/2s curve
Read 21 tweets

Global Macro Review 03/27/22


Nothing but #Quad3 #stagflation
as far as the 👁‍🗨 can 👀

Commodities ↗️

Yields ↗️

Equities ↗️

Let’s dig into the 🧮!

The 🔑 to ↘️ prices is ↗️ prices?

Chart: The $CRB closed at a new cycle high 307.33 +5.16% and is now within striking distance of the June 2014 🔝

Hydrocarbons put in another shift this week 🚀
(w) = week (T) = Trend = 3 months

$BRENT +8.75% (w) +53.05% (T)
$GASO +7.15% (w) +56.35% (T)
$NATGAS + 15.45% (w) +54.55% (T) ⬅️
$WTIC +10.5% (W) +54.35% (T)

Chart: Uncle Joe is going to bottle up Natty and sell it to the EU
Read 21 tweets
A few months ago, #markets expected U.S. #inflation to peak by mid-2022 at around 7% to 8% at the headline level and then anticipated that generalized #price gains would decline into year end, closing the year around 4%.
However, the tragic war now unfolding with Russia’s attack upon Ukraine has not only sent #energy prices skyrocketing but it has led to much greater uncertainty over #economic growth and #MonetaryPolicy reaction functions, in Europe and indeed around the world.
Core #CPI (excluding volatile #food and #energy components) came in at 0.5% month-over-month and 6.4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, headline CPI data printed at 0.8% month-over-month and came in at 7.9% year-over-year, the greatest increase over a 12-month period since January 1982.
Read 17 tweets
DoubleLine founder and CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents "Convoy" Tuesday at 1:15pm PT.

Stay tuned here for live updates!

#macro #markets #inflation #geopolitics #Fed #Canada #RussiaUkraine #rates #recession #stocks #bonds #commodities
Jeffrey Gundlach: "Convoy" has two meanings. Inspired by Canadian truckers go angry enough to take things in their own hands.
Jeffrey Gundlach: The other meaning is the runaway convoy of the commodity market.
Read 61 tweets
Good morning! This is some great data about the yield curve, #Fed hiking cycles, and how markets / $SPX react. The short version? Don't listen to all the claptrap you'll undoubtedly hear about how an inverted curve "doesn't matter" and/or "doesn't mean anything" when ...
... the curve inverts in this cycle. My take has been since last spring (and remains so today) that it'll happen a LOT earlier in this hiking cycle than the Dudleys of the world predict. But also, don't "jump the gun" and get short the market when the curve is only flattening ...
... It takes TIME for flattening to turn to inversion, and inversion to turn to #recession. You can still make money in a late-cycle environment. You just won't make the most of it in the same sectors/stocks you made the most of it in the early- and mid-cycle phases. Or IOW...
Read 4 tweets
DoubleLine founder and CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents:

Just Markets 2022 - I Feel Young Again

Today at 1:15pm PT, register here:…

#macro #markets #stocks #FX #bonds #commodities #rates #inflation #Fed #QE #bitcoin

Live recap thread⬇️
Jeffrey Gundlach: 2021 might end up running 7% year on the CPI

#inflation #QE #Powell #fed #hikes #rates
Jeffrey Gundlach: Low interest rates coupled with inflation generating negative interest rate.

#JustMarkets2022 #CPI #QE #Fed
Read 48 tweets
Grey Swans are those low-probability, high-impact events that few expect.

Last year, we had picked 10 Grey Swans for 2021. Amazingly, some materialised. Notably, the Democrats won the Senate, and inflation surged.

Here are our 12 for this year 👇
Pundits are Wrong! US Enters a #Recession in 2022

Almost no one is looking for a US recession in 2022. Economists’ consensus assigns only a 15% probability. Clearly, most expect US growth to lose momentum. So why not expect a US recession?
With a Magic Wand: COVID All But Disappears

Virus mutation, natural immunity and vaccines are all reasons why the pandemic could end next year according. #COVID could also just disappear like other viruses have! (Think SARS)
Read 14 tweets
The political momentum for reforming the #EU 🇪🇺 #fiscal framework is larger than ever. We are excited to share our freshly published feasibility & impact analysis of the reform proposals with you:… (1/15)➡️ Image
Recovering from the #pandemic and simultaneously achieving #environmental, #social and #economic goals requires large amounts of public funding and therefore ample #fiscal flexibility for #EU member states. (2/15)
And with all eyes on #COP26 this week, and the discussion about the scale and pace of investment for #ClimateAction high on the agenda, the discussion about how to create the fiscal flexibility for investments such as these has never been more timely (3/15)
Read 16 tweets
We first warned on the possibility of a 'perfect storm' in December 2017.👇

We envisaged that the "storm" would engulf the global #economy in two years, but noted that everything depends on the actions of #Centralbanks and #China .
As we now know, central banks have been very innovative in postponing the crisis.

The bailout operations effectively started in 2016, when China unleashed a massive 'credit bonanza' to halt the collapse in its housing markets, and a global #recession . 2/…
They continued in December 2018/early January 2019, when the near collapse of the Chinese banking sector and credit markets in the US forced the PBoC to inject hundreds billions worth of liquidity into the banking system and the Fed to 'pivot'. 3/…
Read 14 tweets
#NFIB data says we are only in a #recovery, not an #economic expansion.
While the NFIB data doesn't get much #media attention, it should as it tells you much about what is really happening in the #economy.…
Reason I pay attention to #NFIB
Sept 2019 - Data rings alarm bells on #recession.
April 2020 - Data says recession arrived.
May 2020 - Data says #economic recovery not as strong as media suggests.… Image
If businesses were expecting a massive surge in “#pentup#demand, they would prepare for it. Such includes #planning to increase #capex to meet expected demand. Unfortunately, those expectations peaked in 2018 and are dropping back to the March 2020 lows.… Image
Read 7 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/27/2021…
Biden wants to squeeze an extra shot of vaccine out of every Pfizer vial. It won’t be easy.…

#vaccine #distribution #contract
More garbage than water: Serbia promises clean-up of hydro reservoir…

#environment #contamination #CleanUp #sustainability
Read 10 tweets

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