Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #recession

Most recents (24)

🇺🇸 #Fed #Recession #Inflation | Lower tax refunds, uncertainty regarding the banking sector, upcoming tightening credit conditions and weather normalization should weigh on consumer spending from March ⚠ (1/8) ⬇
🇺🇸 According to latest IRS data, average refunds fell 11% YoY to $2,972 (after boosting spending earlier this year). This dynamic is expected to persist in the short term (2/8)… Image
🇺🇸 Data released after turbulences in the banking sector also suggest consumers became cautious. Citi pointed out that its proprietary credit card data revealed a 10.3% ⬇ in spending in the week-ended 18-Mar., biggest ⬇ since the pandemic began (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
Live from #GartnerDA | Smart #Analytics for Even Smarter #CostOptimization with Adam Ronthal, Gartner VP Analyst: Adam Ronthal on stage prese...
About this session: Within a #recession, orgs will be desperate to save every cent and penny they can. Adam will explore how #analytics can help make optimal saving decisions. #GartnerDA
To start off, Adam examines the hype cycle for emerging #tech focused on #CostOptimization ⚙️ #GartnerDA Image
Read 15 tweets
Gold attempting to BREAKOUT of its second BIGGEST yearly defined base versus SPX.

Possible analog roadmaps with price & time targets.

8000$ in 2034
12000$ in 2033
21000$ in 2030

Overshoot on smaller time frames not included.

#gold #xauusd #spx #fintwit #inflation #recession
A couple of key observations.

You can't even see #gold's 2020 rally vs #spx, simply a wick, with a yearly close back below 0.50.

Also, note those extremely fast moves out of the gate, once yearly breakout is confirmed.
Major error on this #gold versus #spx chart...

I forgot the rocket ships!
Read 3 tweets
2/🧵 Looking at the latest @CNNBusines “Fear & Greed Index”, the markets are still maintaining their GREED readings on the back of last weeks Thurs - Fri #StockMarket reversal rally that was triggered (all, or in-part) on the back of @federalreserve (non-voting) member Bostic’s…… Image
3/🧵 Here are the rest of of the “7 Fear & Greed Indicators” (per @CNNBusiness): 🐂📈 vs. 🐻📉

— Market Momentum (Greed)
— Stock Price Strength (Extreme Greed)
— Stock Price Breadth (Neutral)
— Put/Call Ratio (Greed)
— Market Volatility (Neutral)
— Safe Haven Demand (Greed)
—…… ImageImageImage
4/🧵 Here is an update on #StockMarket breath, as we did see a pause on selling pressure as market breadth picked up Thursday into Friday’s close… $SPY $SPX

🟣 >20 Day (Current: 38%, Previous: 18%) 📉
🔵 >50 Day (Current: 51%, Previous: 44%) 📉
🟠 >200 Day (Current: 60%,…… Image
Read 19 tweets
Credit Suisse - a bank too big to fail - crashes to all-time low after raising deposit rates to reverse bank run📉

Read the thread!


$CS #banknifty $SPY $QQQ #recession #stockmarketcrash Image
Credit Suisse offering a 6.5% annual rate on new three-month deposits of $5 million or above - and a rate as high as 7% for one-year deposits — far above matched maturity Bills, and suggesting that to attract a client, the bank is forced to eat a GIANT loss.

2/4 Image
Beyond liquidity woes, Credit Suisse faces significant talent bleed as dozens of private bankers at managing director-level & above have left, taking client assets with them. Senior bankers handling at least $1 bn. may take up to 60% of funds managed to their new employers.

Read 4 tweets
During the past week, I and we conducted an in-depth analysis of the U.S. #economy . The results were not encouraging.

First, I discovered that the banking sector was more fragile than previously thought.
It also seemed that the U.S. credit markets were in the grips of a (fallacious) complacency, shown on the proportionally milder reaction of the "junk" bonds on the current tightening cycle.

But, can the #Fed support the markets in the current situation? We're not so sure.
2/ Image
The good news was that the "zombie-corporation" problem seemed to be less severe than previously thought.

However, we also know that the ultra-easy monetary policies has created weak highly indebted firms.
3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan #PCE came in hotter than expected tdy.

After Jan employment report, #CPI and #PCE some have been calling for the #Fed to step up their hikes in order to solve the #inflation problem.

Should the #Fed do it?

A thread.

Before we go into the #PCE details, here is a comprehensive overview of the Jan employment report:


Also here is a comprehensive overview of the Jan #CPI and what that means for the #inflation going forward:

Read 13 tweets
A few people have asked me why after 6 years being #bearish #natgas I’ve become vocally and aggressively #bullish - I know I give off the impression of a degenerate gambler but I do have a thesis underlying my view, I’ll do my best to share and summarise in the comments below…
1) despite common misconception, it’s not because of the weather… I’m not one to tweet about vortexes (you know who you are), crazy weather patterns, climate change or hurricanes. That’s all short term, I typically take a 9-12 month #natgas position absent of leverage…
2) it’s not to do with LNG, #freeportlng etc. - one can’t deny that has had an effect in 2022/23. But that’s exacerbated what was already in effect IMO. All upcoming projects have been priced in the contango curve (2024 earliest) and prod has reacted (drilling, DUC increase etc)
Read 7 tweets
🇪🇺⚡️Updated European #GDP data indicate that the region was on the verge of a #recession in Q4 2022, with at least three countries, including the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Finland, experiencing two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.
Germany, Italy & Poland have seen a decline in GDP, while France & Spain remain in the positive.
The slowdown in GDP dynamics is due to unique structural characteristics, with the main channel of influence being energy & inflation, leading to government subsidies to compensate for damage.
Read 4 tweets
🔆IMF Global Forecast for 2023-24 #Thread
1. Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024.
2. The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage point higher than predicted in the October 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) but below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent.
3. The rise in central bank rates to fight inflation and Russia Ukraine war continue to weigh on economic activity. The rapid spread of COVID-19 in China dampened growth in 2022, but the recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery.
Read 14 tweets
☀️Of the £4.1B the #British government has paid to lenders for defaulted credit under the bounce back loan scheme (BBLS), £640M worth of facilities were marked as “suspected fraud”, which is £1 in every £6!!
1. of the £77B worth of emergency taxpayer-backed funding provided across three pandemic loan schemes, at least £11B is in arrears or defaulted!!!
2. among large users of the BBLS, Starling Bank has flagged the highest proportion of loans as “suspected fraud”. At least £695M worth of the £1.6B in BBLs issued by the online bank are in arrears or default!!
Read 4 tweets
Two takeaways from this:

One, take the narrative of 2008 to 2022 was an anomaly, not the norm; what worked for millennials will not work for Gen Z - higher cost of capital will directly impact the growth rate.

For every young person looking to start a business, don't follow what the millennials did (luckiest generation in my mind, including myself) in that 15-year Era...

Two, it's uncanny how #inflation and fed rates spike just before a recession over a 70-year period. A fall in inflation and the first downward change in rates could be confirmation of a #recession...

Read 3 tweets
Here's a thread of (6) charts 📊 that are worth nothing from this last week's @MorganStanley Global Investment Committee (GIC) Weekly Report (01/30/23)... 🧵/👇🏼

#macro #economy #earnings #stocks #StockMarket #bonds…
1/🧵 "In the short run, flows, sentiment, positioning & technicals can be powerful drivers, while over the longer term, fundamentals like growth, profitability & productivity are critical, as are earnings surprises." @MorganStanley

#macro #earnings #stocks #StockMarket #bonds
2/🧵 "But sometimes, & for extended periods, markets can settle on one particular thesis, no matter how narrow or implausible." 📊h/t @MorganStanley @GoldmanSachs $MS $GS @Bloomberg

#macro #earnings #stocks #StockMarket #bonds $SPY $SPX
Read 12 tweets
Jan NFP came in 200K+ above the highest Wall Street estimate, UR came in lower than expected, while AHE came mostly in line.

How come Wall Street analysts were all so off?

What does that say about the labor mkt?

Let's dig deeper.

A thread.



Before analyzing the final data, let me explain adjustments and revisions BLS does every Jan:
1) revisions to Establishment Survey data and
2) adjustments to population estimates of the Household Survey


NFP revisions were done only to reflect revisions of total #employment on Mar 2022.

This means that the Philly #Fed report that found 1.1M overstated jobs in Q2 is not reflected in these revisions.

This won't get reflected until Feb 2024.

Read 24 tweets
Can 𝐀𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐢 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩 collapse trigger a 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧❓

Examining the Impact of India's Gigantic Conglomerate.

What is #FPO ?

🔶FPO, "Follow-on Public Offer," is a process in which a company that is already publicly traded issues shares to existing shareholders or new investors.
Why do companies do FPO ?

The reason behind the company's FPO is:

🔶To reduce the debt that already exists in a company.

🔶To raise additional capital for a company.
Read 18 tweets
Q4 #GDP advance print shows 2.9% after 3.2% in Q3.

2 positive Qs after 2 negative Qs suggest there is no #recession.

Now that #inflation is nonexistent, a non-#recession would actually mean a soft landing.

Is that plausible?

A comprehensive 🧵.

Before we go into the #GDP details, let's delve deeper into the #recession data.

Since 1954 there were 10 recessions and ALL came after the #Fed hiked rates.

There were only 3 instances when their hikes didn't cause a #recession:
1) 1961-1966
2) 1983-1984
3) 1994-1995

During the latest hiking cycle the #Fed added 425 bps in 9M.

The highest they ever managed to hike in 9M without causing a #recession was (only) 190 bps.

IOW soft landing with this amount of hikes has never happened!

Read 22 tweets
UK #recession risk rises as flash #PMI falls deeper into contraction in January amid worsening service sector economy and ongoing manufacturing decline. More at
Survey highlights how headwinds are driving UK economic activity lower, though price pressures are thankfully cooling - albeit remaining elevated
Survey data also highlight how the #BoE policy tightening is having an impact. More rates hikes to come amid reduced government help to households and businesses will undoubtedly add to recession risks.
Read 4 tweets
Today's #blog covers why the #pain #trade is likely higher over the next few weeks as #sentiment improves and too much money is offside.…
#Bullish optimism is building around:
- #Fed cutting rates
- #Economy will avoid #recession
- #Employment remains strong.
- #Earnings have corrected enough
Risk to that view remains a recession.…
It is called the “#paintrade” because it is the opposite of how #investors are currently positioned. Investor sentiment remains historically #bearish despite improvement since the October lows.…
Read 5 tweets
Wondering about latest news 📰 in the #realestate #housingmarket 🏡💵 with pricing, #interestrates, etc.? Here's an updated thread for January 23' that includes all the latest macro/market data... 🧵/👇🏼

📊h/t @RealEstateCafe
1/🧵 "44% year/year drop in ⁦@MBAMortgage
⁩ Purchase Index is largest decline on record." 🇺🇸📉

📊h/t @LizAnnSonders @bloomberg

#realestate #realestateinvesting #FederalReserve #interestrates #macro #realator #mortgagerates
2/🧵 Affordability "threshold" for housing, via the @AtlantaFed 🏡

📊h/t @NewsLambert

#realestate #realestateinvesting #FederalReserve #interestrates #macro #realator #mortgagerates
Read 26 tweets
@PwC @PwCUS just released their 2023 Annual Global CEO Survey — here's a thread of the top takeaways from the survey, including the fact that "40% of CEO's don't think their companies will be 'economically viable' in the next 10yrs"... 🧵/👇🏼

#macro #Stockmarket #DataAnalytics
1/🧵 "Roughly 40% flagged the transition to new energy sources and supply chain disruption." @PwC @PwCUS

#macro #Stockmarket #DataAnalytics #commodities #supplychainmanagement #tech
2/🧵 "#inflation and #macroeconomic volatility stand out more prominently than other key threats in the next 12 months than over the next five years." @PwC @PwCUS

#macro #Stockmarket #DataAnalytics #commodities #supplychainmanagement #tech #CPI
Read 11 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Macro Review 🧵


Core #CPI running at +3.1% SAAR confirmed #Goldilocks for Q422 and catalyzed a 🚀 in equities, metals, and hydrocarbons

#Core CPI - 3-month SAAR
Dec - 3.1%
Nov - 4.2%
Oct - 5.7%

Chart: #CoreCPI 5.7% 🔻

Despite all the recession talk - including my own, the @AtlantaFed #NowCast is projecting Q4 growth of +4.1%, an acceleration.

Growth 🔺 + Inflation 🔻 = #Quad1 #Goldilocks


While #Quad1 #Goldilocks may be good for risk assets, it’s decidedly poor for the $USD, which continued ↘️ and took out the 50% retracement level of 102.12

Chart: $USD -1.64% (w) -9.94% 3M = T = Trend
Read 21 tweets
If you haven't read it
From our newsletter:
"Last Friday it managed - just like the $DJT and $IWM - to make a solid upward breakout... did so on high volume... close above the 20, 50, 100 and 200DMA.
All indicates that this will most likely be the way forward for the #SPX"
" #DJT made an excellent breakout and closed above 20 and 100DMA. It closed right at its 50DMA. Bullish action from a leading indicator. $DJT will have to surpass the conjunction of 50DMA and 200DMA next week, in order to validate more upward moves"
It did that yesterday


"A follow up rally is expected to allow it to break out of the Noise Box and break above at least the 20DMA.
On Monday it broke above the Noise Box, yesterday above the 20DMA, today above the 50DMA"

#QQQ #NDX #TradingSignals #bearmarket #SPX #ES_F #trading #SPX
Read 10 tweets
Will India 🇮🇳experience a recession or not?

1. What will happen to our investments?💹
2. What will happen to our employment?🧑‍💻
These are burning questions that each of us has!

Sadly, let me break this to you:

Today's World Bank report said that for a 100-point reduction in the US economic growth, India's economy will fall by 40 points and other developing countries' economies will fall by 150 points.
While we won't be doomed, we will still be impacted!

And here's how you can 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧-𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐨𝐟 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬📈:

Get returns by investing in recession-proof industries! Look at commodities around you that you will still purchase even in a recession.
Read 8 tweets
Well, hello 🐫 day!

Precious metals making fresh 6-month highs as $TNX puts in a big higher low with $WTIC taking the 🐫

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed ↔️ with 🇭🇰 ↗️ 🇯🇵 ↘️

$NIKK 25717 -1.45% 🇯🇵
$SSEC 3124 +0.2%
$TWII 14199 -0.2%
$HSI 20793 +3.2% 🇭🇰
$KOSPI 2256 +1.65%
$IDX 613 -1.05%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7059 +1.65%

India ↘️
$BSE 60657 -1.05%
Europe ♉️↗️↗️

$DAX 14415 +1.65%
$FTSE 7604 +0.65%
$CAC 6743 +1.8%
$AEX 718 +1.5%
$IBEX 8531 +1.6%
$MIB 24770 +1.35%
$SMI 11117 +1.25%
$MOEX 2168 -0.2%

$VSTOXX 19.66 🔻

$DAX range = 13740 - 14531 ♉️
Read 12 tweets

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