Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #recession

Most recents (24)

Many of the long standing societal rules were re-written at times of crisis. We are undergoing one of the biggest crisis of our generation. Wonder what rules will be re-written in the post COVID world. Trying to predict few changes in the new world

Thread 1/n
AI and Digital transformation will lead the way in the post Covid world as people will finally wake up to the potential of technology in optimizing their respective businesses.
#COVID #coronovirusindia #economy #recession #IndianEconomy #startups
The de facto delivery of education will change to online mediums now that the education institutes will start seeing the potential of online education delivery. Low impact in K12, high impact in higher education.
#COVID #education #edtech
Read 10 tweets
MAR 28 #COVID19 #MDTHREAD 1: #Italy now more cases than #China .. but see 101 yo man #Recovered and sent home. 5MIN Test now available from @ABBOTT Runs on #IDNOW Machines .. @CDCgov CHANGES MIND advises everyone wear masks. @maddow @ursulafaw56
MAR 28 #COVID19 #MDTHREAD 2: The man, identified as “Mr. P,” was admitted to hospital last week and was released on Thursday, Gloria Lisi, the deputy mayor of the city of Rimini, told local media.
Mr. P was born in 1919 amid the that year’s historic flu pandemic,
MAR 28 #COVID19 #MDTHREAD 3: @CDCgov NOW SAYS TO WEAR MASKS. @maddow @CNN @MartyMakary @drsanjaygupta @RepAOC @RepJeffries AND 5 min TEST Now available (ships next week. Runs on #ABBOTT #IDNOW machines Get em tested and get em #QUARANTINED #NYC #Chicago
Read 28 tweets
#Germany approves €1.2 trillion aid package, e.g.

-€3bn for hospitals
-basic support w/o income test (for 6m) for all in need
-no evictions (private/commercial properties; electricity water internet guaranteed)
-cash payments* for SMEs: €9.000 (<5staff), €15,000 (<10staff)
(*do not have to be paid back)
-larger companies access interest-free loans (KfW)
-(part-)nationalisation of companies threatened by bankruptcy permitted (temporary)

#coronavirus #economy #lockdown
Better summary (via @BrexitBin)

#Germany #coronavirus
Read 4 tweets
Trump opened briefing/circus boasting about 2.2T stimulus designed to carry US thru 3 mths of social distancing.

He ended propaganda lap justifying early return to work saying: “We have business owners with businesses that are just sitting there.” 1/ #coronavirus #stimulusbill
Businesses WILL sit there and their owners will receive CASH to keep paying their workers AND overhead for 3 months! So, why is Trump risking OUR ENTIRE NATION to open up businesses in 5 days? 2/ #coronavirus #stimulusbill @JoyAnnReid @maddow @Lawrence @chrislhayes @KirstenPowers
March 2020: Senate is voting on bill to give 2.2 Trillion to businesses, workers and hospitals.

In 5 days, Trump ruins the gains made over last two weeks by prematurely ending quarantine.

March 2021: US has 2.2 MILLION fewer consumers b/c they died. #recession #coronavirus 3/3
Read 4 tweets

Tonight I'm going to share highlights from the 2010 "Scenarios for the Future of Technology & Int'l Development" report produced by The Rockefeller Foundation & Global Business Network. Not just the "Lock Step" scenario, but all 4 scenarios. [54 page report]
Following Event 201 (Oct 18 2019), we must concede that the ruling class has been gifted with phenomenal and prophetic intuitions & insights. (They truly are the chosen ones.) Thus it is worthwhile, even mandatory, to study their scenario exercises & simulations.
"We believe that scenario planning has great potential for use in philanthropy to identify unique interventions... scenario planning allows us to achieve impact more effectively." [p 4]
Read 73 tweets
I want to re-iterate one point.

It's UTTERLY useless to fight the global economic crisis put in motion by the #CoronavirusOutbreak .

Here's why. Thread.

First, as we know, #COVID19 hits the supply-chains. No amount of fiscal stimulus will fix them.

And, #China leads. 👇 1/
As insightfully noted by Z. Pozsar and J. Sweeney, “supply-chain is a payment-chain in reverse”. This is the part that governments can do something.

But, gov. support for households and students, will NOT fix payment issues of corporations caused by supply chain problems. 2/
Most importantly, no amount of money will cure fear and quarantines, which seriously dampen consumption.

This is NOT a short-term issue.

So, any fiscal stimulus enacted now, will just add to the burden of highly indebted governments WITHOUT fixing the underlying issues. 3/
Read 9 tweets
South Africa’s economy slipped into its 3rd #recession since 1994 in Q4:2019, shrinking by 1,4%. This followed a contraction of 0,8% in Q3.

#StatsSA #GDP #economy
7 of the 10 industries contracted in Q4:2019. Transport and trade were the main drags on overall activity. Finance, mining and personal services registered positive growth.

Listen here for more:

#StatsSA #GDP #economy
The primary sector declined by 0,4% in Q4:2019. #Agriculture experienced its 4th consecutive quarter of negative growth, falling by 7,6%, while mining growth was driven largely by platinum group metals, iron ore & gold.
Listen here for more:
#StatsSA #GDP
Read 10 tweets
Many are calling for a rate cut on the #Fed, but there's very little central banks can do at this point.

A thread on, why #centralbanks will be unable to stop any repercussions from the #CoronavirusOutbreak .

We naturally start with the balance sheets. 👇1/12
Which are just massive.

The very role of any easing (quantitative or normal) is to push interest rates down.

In addition, it was the purpose of QE -programs to also create a "wealth effect", by increasing the values of financial assets and making people feel "rich". 2/
We detailed the channels of effects of QE programs in the Q-Review 1/2018. 👉…

Even today, the effects are not understood by all, but they depend heavily on the ability of the programs to push down (converge) the yields of bonds in different classes. 👇 2/
Read 13 tweets
"Restrictions imposed to control the virus — & public panic — have transformed #Italy’s commercial & financial capital in a way some Milanese fear will result in a deep & lasting economic blow."… #Milan #ItalyCoronavirus
1/ "Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte this week said the economic blow to Italy could be 'very strong.'”
2/ “'If the virus spreads, and it will spread, I think any local or national politician would have to take very drastic action, and that will virtually halt the economy,' said Roberto Perotti, an economist at #Milan’s Bocconi University, who was #workingfromhome this week."
Read 8 tweets
This is your daily pension announcement: if the truth isn't all there, it is a lie edition. Please, we are mobilizing the pension army reserves. Give the following article a read and then discuss among yourselves. #handsoffmypension #AbLeg #ABEd…
A few comments: Travis can't be bothered that Bill 22 is facing serious challenges. He sticks to his strategy of not talking about pensions, ever. Instead, he sends out his long suffering press sec (Jerrica). Travis talks to reporters about pensions but only #offtherecord
So the official position from Jerrica:

“Government contributes to each pension plan, and so Alberta taxpayers are partners and have a vested interest in the health of the plans”

Please use your critical thinking skills brought to you in part by Alberta Education™️ to evaluate.
Read 12 tweets
This is a topic we raised in September 2017, but I haven't commented this for a while.

Thus, I think it's good time to remind all, why we have experienced so nascent recovery from the GFC.

A thread on why global growth has waned.

We, naturally, start with this. 👇 1/
Global productivity growth stagnated in 2012. This is something that should not happen outside major crises, as shown in the figure above.

So, what's going on?

We dealt with the topic extensively in the March 2019 issue of our Q-Review. 👇2/…
Already in June 2013, we warned that:

"It is possible that the banking sector and the world economy were saved by using too strong methods in 2008. As a consequence of this, it is also possible that the world economy is more like zombie economy, where... 3/
Read 17 tweets
It seems like a good time to remind everyone, why we are heading into an economic crisis.

A thread on the fragility of the global #economy.

There, naturally, is no other place to start than this.👇 1/
@CNBCJulianna @KellyCNBC @SaraEisen @GeoffCutmore
Yet, everything begins from the GFC.

Like we noted in a blog published on the 10th anniversary of the failure of Lehman Brothers, very little has actually been fixed in the global financial system.👇 2/…
While the US banks are now bigger than before 2008 crisis, the biggest problems lay in Europe.

The European banks remained under-capitalized and filled with toxic assets, and the policies of the #ECB made everything worse. 👇 3/…
Read 14 tweets
A lot of talk about the economic effects of the #COVID_19 . There are still those hoping for a quick (V-type) recovery.

In this thread, I'll try to be as detailed as a macroeconomist can be in explaining, why this is very unlikely.

But first, please remember this. 👇 1/
Second thing to note is:

"In this situation, it won't be feasible to adopt a proactive fiscal policy by expanding the fiscal expenditure scale."

By Finance Minister Liu Kun. 2/…
The above statements should not be disregarded lightly.

Similar statements, given at the start of the Chinese deleveraging in early fall 2017, indicated that the deleveraging had truly started. 👇 3/…
Read 12 tweets
There are some deep misconceptions about the ability of #China to recover from the economic fallout of #coronavirus relatively quickly.

In this thread, I explain why this is unlikely, and why it's not China we should be truly worried about.

Let's start with the facts. 1/
It has been obvious for a while that China's economic growth lays in unsustainable ground.

If we deduct the growth of debt on the growth of GDP, we get an estimate on the 'organic' growth rate for Chinese #economy.

Which has been negative since 2011 (till 2017). 2/
This, unsurprisingly, has led to another pressing problem. China's productivity growth turned negative in 2012.

This, quite simply, means that China has been accumulating vast amounts of unprofitable investments, at least since 2011. 3/
Read 12 tweets
1/5 A currency #crisis in 2018 opened the door for Turkey’s government to clamp down on financial markets in a way that turned inward the largest #economy in the Middle East, and spooked off foreign investors:… (thread)
2/5 President #Erdogan and his deputies say the measures, including tapping central bank legal reserves and regular #FX interventions, were needed to stabilize the #lira and boost growth – and they have had some success…
3/5 The investment impact in #Turkey has been dramatic: foreigners now hold only 8% of Turkish debt and mostly missed a once-a-decade bond rally, while non-residents sold a net $3.3 bln last year…
Read 5 tweets
Lets talk about how important it is to frequently #Review #CentralBank #MonetaryPolicy #Frameworks...
I will set things off by pointing out that the various facets of #BusinessCycles (early, mid, late / boom & busts) consistently keep reminding us that what goes up, must come down. We might find ourselves in a prolonged #expansion, but eventually it decelerates into a #recession
As part of #Macroeconomic management (counter cyclical), a #CentralBank's objective (through its #MonetaryPolicy) is to maintain #PriceStability & #FinancialStability & in other cases, to promote #FullEmployment. It does this hand in hand with #FiscalPolicy...
Read 15 tweets
I know it's difficult to grasp of what's about to hit with the #StockMarket constantly reaching all time highs, but so it did, e.g., in 1929.

Here are some of our latest works to explain, why 2020 is the year when we fall into the next crisis.
Thread 1/…
In August, we detailed, why central banks have become a threat to the #economy .

"The exceptional measures of central banks were crucial in the acute phase of the crisis, but [...], they turned into a serious and dangerous drag on the global economy."
In September, we explained why the turn to massive monetary easing is unlikely to reinvigorate the real #economy.

"the [...] economic downturn did not start as a result of trade issues, but rather from the diminution of massive Chinese debt-stimulus." 3/…
Read 12 tweets
I promised that we'd publish a new #Repo -blog today, with some "breaking info". Unfortunately, we discovered an error in the background info, which trashed the basis of our argument.

What we were trying to explain was this. 👇

Thread 1/
@Amdalleq @BradHuston
After the #Fed started its #repo -operations, #StockMarket has been in state of relentless melt-up.

As suggested by @zerohedge , hedge funds have been likely to use repo to increase their leverage.

But, what have the new repo-ops caused? 2/…
Like nicely elaborated by @bondstrategist , they have at least "thrown the moral hazard out of the window".

The #Fed is guaranteeing liquidity in the #repo -market, which basically removes all the risk, at least, in the markets of short-term paper. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Lets talk #New #Tools for #MonetaryPolicy...
The #Global #Financial #Crisis of 2007/08 taught the policy making world that something special beyond #Conventional #MonetaryPolicy was necessary to lift economies out of the economic malaise...tinkering with the key rates was not enough anymore...
To this end, #centralbanks in the developed world (The US, UK, Japan, The EuroArea) adopted what they termed #UnconventionalMonetaryPolicy #UMP which is characterised by #ForwardGuidance #NegativeInterestRatePolicy & #QuantitativeEasing...but, have they helped?
Read 10 tweets
It's rather baffling, why so many think that #recession of 2020 could be avoided.

Yes, the #Fed has cut rates aggressively and started to support the #stockmarkets and hedge-fund leverage, but it will not save the real #economy. 👇

#recession thread. 1/…
We first warned of the impending #recession in March 2019. Then, before the aggressive rate cuts and Not-QE, the timeline for its onset was Q1 2020.

In our recent forecast, the onset has been postponed between Q2 and Q3 due to the aggressive stimulus. 2/…
Why so little has changed in our forecast?

First, it should be noted that the #repo -panic of the #Fed was justified. It's evident that there are serious problems in the financial plumbing.

Without Fed's swift response, we'd be in recession already. 3/…
Read 19 tweets
[1/10] *New Years Eve Special*

Meet @SamanthaLaDuc, a #PHONYTRADER who said, back in Sep, "another reason I'm not expecting a break-out anytime soon"
@SamanthaLaDuc [2/10] 9/22/19 "Just Wow #Recession "
@SamanthaLaDuc [3/10] 9/28/19 "Suddenly leverage appears to have returned almost to its post-war high set DURING THE DOTCOM BUBBLE."
Read 11 tweets
So, why the collapse (not a recovery) of 2020?

1) There has not been an actual "recovery".
2) China running out of road.
3) Extension of the cycle through bailouts, alone.
4) No one left to "pivot" (bailout the markets).

Thread. 1/…
I've been raising this graph several times.

Yet, some try to disregard it's message, which is extremely simple: global productivity growth has collapsed.

The most likely reasons are the growing share of zombie corporations and extremely low interest rates. 2/
The 'megalomanic' debt-stimulus, #China enacted in 2015-2017, effectively emptied China's coffers.

Corporations, households and banks have become such highly indebted that their ability to absorb more debt is gravely limited. 3/…
Read 10 tweets
Many are hoping for a "recovery of 2020", but unfortunately we're going to the opposite direction.

In our latest forecast -report, we detail the reasons why. 👇

Everything starts with from the notion that tremors in the credit markets have started. 1/…
Both the collateralized loan obligation (CLO) and leveraged-loans markets have been "acting out" since summer.

For example, the leveraged loans market was hit with a deluge of downgrades, exceeding upgrades at a pace last seen in 2009. 2/…
Moreover, the IMF warned that in a global downturn, corporate debt at risk of default would rise to $19 trillion in eight major economies.

So, it's no wonder that there have been jitters also in the junk bond markets, while they have subdued lately. 3/…
Read 11 tweets

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