David Tepper is one of my favorite investors. He marries macro and bottom-up, he's ballsy, and he's having a ton of fun.
From 1993-2013, he compounded at 29% net of fees!
Three times was he down more than 25%, each time he came back stronger.
"Investing with David is like flying, with hours of boredom followed by bouts of sheer terror. He's the quintessential opportunist, but you have to have a cast-iron stomach."
"The media says that hedge funds are the new masters of the universe. We're just a bunch of schmucks."😭
Tepper grew up lower middle-class in Pittsburgh.
A “big kid” and “a joker” he had knack for math and got into investing.
“I used to think buildings were black because that was just the color they made them. But they were black because of the soot.”
After getting his MBA he joined Republic Steel which was started failing and gave him a capital markets crash course.
“There's a lesson here. In life, get all the experience you can. While you're young, go for the experience versus a paycheck.”
Tepper used his experience to join Goldman Sachs's new junk bond desk. He came with a chip on his shoulder and quickly rose to head the trading desk.
But the prolific trader failed at office politics - and was passed over for partner several times.
The frustrated Tepper left to form Appaloosa.
“Leaving Goldman was a scary proposition. They didn’t give me my record. I didn’t raise $50 million because I had connections. I was from the inner city of Pittsburgh. I didn’t have any social contacts. The only thing I had was me.”
His first wins came in emerging markets before getting battered by Russia's default in 1998. He lost 29%.
But he didn’t panic. Instead, he scooped up more Russian bonds during the the sell-off. The fund recovered with a 61 percent gain in 1999.
In 2002, he lost 25% when the telecom bubble imploded and took the high yield market down.
Bets on the distressed debt of large bankruptcies such as Enron, WorldCom, and Conseco paid off - he emerged up 149 percent in 2003.
Alan Fournier gifted him a pair of brass balls.
Tepper raised cash in early 2008.
"Everything in the markets, whether investors knew it or not, was a bet on financials at the time. It was the same bet regardless of what you bought.”
Still, he was down nearly 27 percent as everything sold off.
In Feb 2009, the Treasury announced terms for capital injections. Tepper saw the inflection and started buying.
“The government told me in writing what it would do and at what prices”
"Normally one or two others are buying, this time there was no one - not even the guy in Omaha”
"Most of the upside was on the preferred and debt side. That's perhaps why so many people missed this trade."
He was right. In 2009, the fund was up 132 percent or $7.5 billion. It was Tepper's masterstroke at Appaloosa which he compared to a piece of art.
My favorite lessons:
- Don’t do it for money alone.
- Lazy competitive.
- Smart enough to get lucky.
- Find your own style.
- Ahead of the herd.
- Don't bet the firm.
- Bouncing back.
- Unemotional under pressure.
- Stay nimble.
- Optimists win in the long run.
- Keep having fun.
Don’t do it for money alone.
Tepper plays the game because he loves it. He follows intrinsic motivation. This allows him to remain confident even when he’s down.
“I was never afraid to go back to Pittsburgh and work in the steel mills.”
Lazy competitive.
There are two David Teppers. There’s the funny and affable person showing up in interviews. That’s off the field. During the trading day, Tepper is fiercely competitive.
"In the outside world, I’m that easygoing person. But if I’m on the field, I wanna win."
Be smart enough to get lucky.
It's easy to think Tepper merely got lucky. But the headlines miss the preparation, the positioning. It takes work to get to a place where good fortune will materialize.
When it does, remain humble enough to not confuse it all with skill.
Find your own style.
Tepper left behind the narrow lane of credit and distressed investing.
@GrahamDuncanNYC wrote "he appears to move effortlessly across sectors and asset classes, scooping up dollars as he goes"
That's his unique style. You have to find yours.
Ahead of the herd.
“The Street follows us, we don’t follow the Street.”
Tepper is famous for making high conviction bets during panics.
“I don't know how you can really make money if you're not willing to lose money. That's what separates us from everyone else.”
But you must never confuse this with an invitation to buy just because there is fear or merely because the price has declined.
Tepper made high conviction bets when the setup became highly asymmetrical and when he had done a lot of homework on the asset.
Don't bet the firm.
Tepper is highly risk aware. He never mistakes himself for being bigger than the market. He calibrates the risk in the portfolio with his exposure.
“When the shit hits the fan, no one does it better with distressed. But you need to get yourself unlevered.”
“Does being a risk-taker mean not being afraid of losing money sometimes? Then I’m a big risk-taker. Does it mean putting the firm in jeopardy? In that case I am not a big risk-taker.
... It’s okay to lose money in the short term. But we don’t ever want to jeopardize the firm."
Bouncing back.
Tepper’s career has been defined by his ability to take the hit and keep fighting. He turned setbacks, whether in his career or in markets, into the source of his next triumph.
"If I go through my career, it was a lot of a lot of disappointments. There's a lot of things that didn't go right. But those aren't the things that make you. It's how you bounce back and where you move on from there and how you, what you learn from those things."
Unemotional under pressure.
Tepper's ability to make good decisions under pressure is crucial.
"This is a good place to be during a panic. If you came to our office when we were down 20%, you wouldn't see a difference -it's another day at Appaloosa."
Staying nimble.
Tepper returned capital when the fund’s size was starting to constrain him.
“The dirty secret of Appaloosa is, we have been really good macro players for the past five years. We didn’t sit on the book. We are pretty good figuring how markets will run.”
Optimists win in the long run.
“We have this saying: The worse things get, the better they get."
Tepper didn't let the crisis turn him into a doomsday prophet.
"Markets adapt, people adapt. Don’t listen to all the crap out there.”
Keep having fun.
Tepper loves taking shots at the industry.
“Would you rather work at McDonalds or on the sell-side? I would choose McDonalds over the sell-side.”
His humor and passion for the game make him one of my favorite investors to study.
"It's like you have a cell phone and then somebody gives you the charger. Oh, I can get this thing up to a hundred anytime I want?!
"It doesn't feel like anything. Doesn't do anything. I don't get it. I don't understand it. But here's the difference: at 1pm that day, my head does not hit the desk like it used to. ... I sail through the day."
"The way I look at life, basically is it's exhausting. Being busy is exhausting. Doing nothing is exhausting. No matter what you do, it's exhausting.
Sleep is hit and miss, [transcendental meditation] is not. It's this thing that augments your need for rest.
"I would always say to the people that don't do it, I can't believe you stay up all day."
"A lot of stand up is analogies.
The phone charger is pretty tough to beat as an analogy because your phone charger never doesn't work.
And that's the great thing about TM. You never have to wonder. That's the big difference between sleep and TM. TM never doesn't work perfect."
"Trait #1 is the ability to buy stocks while others are panicking and sell stocks while others are euphoric.
When 1999 comes around and the market is going up almost every day, you can't bring yourself to sell because if you do, you may fall behind your peers."
Roughly: Investing -> returning capital -> liquidating assets.
Unexpected:
"We expected low or negative spreads between ROIC and WACC for companies newly listed, rising spreads as they mature, a decline in senescence.
What we found was nearly the opposite. The spread at the date of the IPO was high and narrowed before stabilizing."
Companies going public (selling equity to new investors) when return on capital looks most attractive (and is about to decline)?
Returns to shareholders on the other hand were most attractive for more mature companies.
Druckenmiller: "I am so tired of being a bear, and being labeled a bear."
But: Liquidity ⬇️
"Since it's taken so long, the Fed has ended up with a higher terminal rate. Inflation gets stickier the longer its in the system. That increases the probability of a hard landing."
"We always short the same way. ... I try and think of a situation 12 to 18 months from now and if I think the security prices are going to be less, I short.
Frankly, I'm not sure I've ever made money in shorts. I like it. It's fun, but you can get your head handed to you."
"When I was at Soros, I shorted $200 million worth of Internet stocks in March of 99. And in three weeks covered them at a $600 million loss. I lost $600 million on a $200 million investment in three weeks.
I was short 12 stocks. They all went bankrupt Every one of them."
ROIC and margins for companies with different moats by @mjmauboussin
"A company creates value when its ROIC is in excess of cost of capital. Stated differently, it makes a dollar worth of investment worth more than a dollar in market value.
The market broadly appreciates this, especially when growth is considered as an additional variable."
"Markets are akin to an ecosystem where investors fill various niches. Investors with a short-term horizon tend to focus on near-term metrics such as sales and earnings.
Investors with a long-term horizon focus on competitive advantage and the size of the market opportunity."
Like other great investors, Sam Zell used content as a form of leverage. His "guide to the risky art of resurrecting dead properties" earned him his nickname, the Grave Dancer.
"Some might see buying and creating value from others’ mistakes as a form of exploitation, but I see it as giving neglected or devalued assets new life.
Often in my career I’ve been the only bidder for them—the last chance for a resurrection."
"I’m not claiming to be altruistic— just optimistic, and confident that I can turn those assets around.
That, in my definition, is an entrepreneur. Someone who doesn’t just see the problems but also sees the solutions—the opportunities."