Jason Furman Profile picture
Feb 10, 2022 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
If you think corporate greed is playing a major role in the current inflation then you need to rethink a lot of your views.

1. FISCAL MULTIPLIERS. Fiscal stimulus is less effective than you thought because it will go more into prices/profits than quantities.
2. INCIDENCE ANALYSIS OF FISCAL TRANSFERS. Distributional tables that show the stimulus checks going to households, for example, not correctly reflect that much of the benefit of the stimulus checks was captured by higher prices instead of higher purchasing power.
3. WORKER POWER AND REAL WAGES. If stronger demand raised the ability of corporations to do unfair or unjustified price increases over and above their costs then the flip side is you are saying that heating the economy lowers real wages.
(All of the above assumed that corporate greed was increased by high demand relative to supply, if it was just an exogenous increase in corporate greed—companies that could have done this in 2019 but mistakenly didn’t—the points would be slightly different.)
Oh, and I’m not updating my views on these topics because I think inflation is the result of demand and supply imbalances not changes in corporate greed.

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More from @jasonfurman

Dec 5
Core PCE inflation. Annual rates:

1 month: 2.4%
3 months: 2.7%
6 months: 2.7%
12 months 2.8% Image
Full set of numbers. Image
What leaps out is how low housing inflation was in September, something we already saw in the CPI. I wouldn't expect that to last. Image
Read 8 tweets
Nov 17
Several thoughts on that piece by @nealemahoney & @BharatRamamurti in @nytopinion. Image
1. They claim price controls are good politically. I'm very open to this being true, I'm under no illusion that what I think is good policy is particularly well correlated with good politics. But I am genuinely interested in more evidence beyond the brief observations they make. Image
2. They claim that even if you think price controls are a bad idea they can help you pass supply-increasing legislation that is on balance good. Once again, I'm open to this. And in government I've often done 3rd, 7th or 12th best policies because of constraints. Image
Read 13 tweets
Oct 26
The Federal minimum wage was established in 1938.

It was in effect for about 85 years.

It has now, for better or worse, been effectively abolished. Image
The last three legislated increases in the minimum wage were bipartisan:

1989: President Bush (41) and a Democratic Congress
1996: President Clinton and a Republican Congress
2007: President Bush (43) and a Democratic Congress
Prices are up about 50% since it was increased to $7.25/hr in 2009.

As a result the inflation-adjusted minimum wage is about the lowest it has ever been. The productivity-adjusted min wage is the lowest it has ever been.

Only 1% of workers nationwide are paid at or below that.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 24
The government made the reasonable decision to release CPI data because needed to calculate Social Security COLAs.

Quick summary, core CPI annual rate:
1 month: 2.8%
3 months: 3.6%
6 months: 3.0%
12 months: 3.0% Image
Here are the full set of numbers. Image
The most helpful visualization of the persistent and, to some degree, resurgence of core inflation is this. Four straight months of strong core goods inflation largely due to tariffs. Plus services inflation remains reasonably strong. Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 25
A big upward revision for GDP, was a 3.8% annual rate (up from 3.0% in the advance estimate). For H1 GDP up at a 1.6% annual rate.

The biggest change was consumption which was 2.5% annual rate (up from 1.4% in the advance). Business fixed investment strong, residential weak. Image
Here is quarterly consumer spending. It looked like it was really slowing but with this upward revision and the July and August indications it's looking much more healthy. Image
Business fixed investment has been strong. It is unclear how much of this is pulling forward of capital equipment imports to get ahead of tariffs and how much is sustainable. (Note disaggregating structures have been falling while equipment is rising, reducing a disconnect.)
Read 5 tweets
Sep 11
The core inflation rate increased for the fourth straight month. Annual rates:

1 month: 4.2%
3 months: 3.6%
6 months: 2.7%
12 months: 3.1% Image
Here are the full set of numbers. Image
The problem recently has been in both goods and services. Core goods inflation has typically been about zero but in the run-up to this year had deflation. Now tariff-driven inflation.

And at the same time core services inflation has picked up. Image
Read 8 tweets

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