Jason Furman Profile picture
Feb 10, 2022 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
If you think corporate greed is playing a major role in the current inflation then you need to rethink a lot of your views.

1. FISCAL MULTIPLIERS. Fiscal stimulus is less effective than you thought because it will go more into prices/profits than quantities.
2. INCIDENCE ANALYSIS OF FISCAL TRANSFERS. Distributional tables that show the stimulus checks going to households, for example, not correctly reflect that much of the benefit of the stimulus checks was captured by higher prices instead of higher purchasing power.
3. WORKER POWER AND REAL WAGES. If stronger demand raised the ability of corporations to do unfair or unjustified price increases over and above their costs then the flip side is you are saying that heating the economy lowers real wages.
(All of the above assumed that corporate greed was increased by high demand relative to supply, if it was just an exogenous increase in corporate greed—companies that could have done this in 2019 but mistakenly didn’t—the points would be slightly different.)
Oh, and I’m not updating my views on these topics because I think inflation is the result of demand and supply imbalances not changes in corporate greed.

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More from @jasonfurman

Mar 6
Jobs report uniformly weak: 92K jobs lost (with job losses in almost every industry), household survey employment down too, unemployment rate up to 4.4%, participation down, avg weekly hours flat.

Main sign in the other direction was strong wage growth. Image
The dynamics for private employment look just like overall (86K lost in private with govt basically flat. Image
Unemployment rate still stable or slightly rising. Breakeven job growth is in the 25-50K range so negative jobs months will be more common and normal going forward. Note 3-month moving average of jobs is 6K so a bit below this range. Image
Read 8 tweets
Feb 20
A strong finish to the year for core PCE inflation. And not "strong" in a good way.

Annual growth rates.
1 month: 4.3%
3 months: 3.1%
6 months: 2.9%
12 months: 3.0% Image
Full numbers. Image
Market-based measures remain a bit lower--but were also elevated in December. Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 19
More than *all* of the jobs added over the last year have been in private education & health services.

Total jobs: 359K
Private education & health services: 773K
All other sectors: -414K

This might look surprisingly unbalanced. It's actually the opposite.

A 🧵 Image
Here is percentage job growth across sectors over the last year. Dropping the two most extreme they range from 0.8% for leisure & hospitality to -1.5% for information, a 2.2pp difference.

(Note this post generally uses 3 month moving averages to smooth otherwise volatile data.) Image
This is job growth in 1996. It looks more balanced than 2025 because every industry added jobs. But actually the gap between the second highest (professional services at 5.1%) and second lowest (mining at 0.4%) is 4.7pp. Much more dispersed than this year. Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 13
Core CPI inflation rose during the month of January. But it fell and was relatively muted over longer periods of time--although still some concern the numbers a bit lower due to shutdown-related quirks.

Annual rates:
1 month: 3.3%
6 months: 2.5%
12 months: 2.5% Image
Here are the full numbers. Sadly no data for October because of shutdown so can't compute 3 month changes. Image
Core goods inflation was high as the tariffs were kicking in but has basically gone away and I don't think there is much reason to expect it back.

If you wanted to make yourself nervous could focus on resurgence of core services, does that reflect underlying inflation pressures? Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 11
On the surface a strong jobs report (130K jobs & unemployment falls to 4.3%).

And just about every detail makes it even stronger: participation up, involuntary part-time down, hours up, wages up.

The mystery of strong GDP and weak jobs is being resolved in the direction of GDP. Image
The job growth happened despite further cuts in federal jobs. Private employment was up an impressive 172K. Image
Note, breakeven job growth is currently about 25-50K because of reduced net immigration & also more fully recovered participation. So job growth has slowed but the unemployment rate now seems to have stabilized after slowly and steadily increasing since mid-2023. Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 6
I will be enthusiastically supporting faculty legislation to cap the number of A's at Harvard at 20% (plus a bit). The collective action problem that has driven grades higher & higher over time is increasingly problematic. I hope other institutions consider similar steps. Image
I've talked to numerous colleagues & students about grade inflation. Almost all of them see it as a a problem. I've also heard about as many different ideas for solutions as I've had conversations. I would tweak this proposal in various ways. But would support it over nothing.
One place the current system fails--and it's not the only place--is honors. I'm on the Committee to recommend honors in the economics department. It's increasingly hard to distinguish excellence with so many A's. I believe that now even two A-'s makes you ineligible for Summa.
Read 7 tweets

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