🧵 War or not, Ukraine is losing. Here’s why:
Ukraine gave up nukes for security guarantees 3 decades ago (Budapest Agreement). Now one of the guarantors, Russia, is threatening its sovereignty. Can countries rely on international treaties if they’re violated at will? 1/5
Ukraine gave up nukes for security guarantees 3 decades ago (Budapest Agreement). Now one of the guarantors, Russia, is threatening its sovereignty. Can countries rely on international treaties if they’re violated at will? 1/5
Ukraine’s allies won’t get their hands dirty. Shuttle diplomacy isn’t delivering. What’s their strategy?
1. Russia will change its mind. (Sure)
2. The threat of sanctions. (When was the last time it worked?)
3. Kyiv makes unilateral concessions to implement the Minsk accord
2/5
1. Russia will change its mind. (Sure)
2. The threat of sanctions. (When was the last time it worked?)
3. Kyiv makes unilateral concessions to implement the Minsk accord
2/5
Europe is pushing the Minsk accord as a “peace deal” & the best hope to avert war, when in fact, it’s a failed ceasefire agreement that benefits Russia. It stands to give political representation to Kremlin-backed separatists who can potentially veto Kyiv’s foreign policy. 3/5
Ukraine says it won’t implement the Minsk accord on Russia’s terms. But the fact is that Russia is dictating the terms of negotiation. Biden is not in control, threatening to cancel a pipeline that’s not his to cancel.Europe failing to leverage its energy imports from Moscow. 4/5
Meanwhile the military buildup continues. The drills in Belarus are at Kyiv’s doorstep. Putin is a risk-taker. Ukraine’s allies are not. The absence of war will come at the cost of Kyiv’s sovereignty. And it’s not the same as peace. 5/5
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