Oil war🧵
EU’s sanctions package on Russia will impact countries like India. EU is capping what other countries can pay for Russian oil. It bans the sale of oil above that price. This applies only to oil transported by sea. Won’t hurt EU members importing Russian oil by pipeline How can EU decide the price of Russian oil? Through insurance & shipping firms. Commercial oil tankers need massive insurance. European insurers rule this market. EU sanctions will forbid these insurers from providing services to Russian companies selling oil above the price cap.

Italy’s right turn in 5 points
1. 45-yr-old Giorgia Meloni is set to become Italy’s first far-right leader since World War II & the country’s first woman PM.
2. She’s anti-immigration, anti-LGBTQ rights. She says she’s “not a fascist, but identifies with Mussolini’s heirs.”
(1/4) 3. Her coalition partners are ex-PM Silvio Berlusconi & Matteo Salvini, both part of the outgoing Mario Draghi government, also both traditionally close to Moscow. Will the Meloni government support sanctions against Russia?
(2/4)

🧵 War or not, Ukraine is losing. Here’s why:
Ukraine gave up nukes for security guarantees 3 decades ago (Budapest Agreement). Now one of the guarantors, Russia, is threatening its sovereignty. Can countries rely on international treaties if they’re violated at will? 1/5 Ukraine’s allies won’t get their hands dirty. Shuttle diplomacy isn’t delivering. What’s their strategy?
1. Russia will change its mind. (Sure)
2. The threat of sanctions. (When was the last time it worked?)
3. Kyiv makes unilateral concessions to implement the Minsk accord
2/5