NSA Jake Sullivan declines to comment on US intelligence with regard to Russian invasion, but says "it could begin during the Olympics despite speculation that it would only happen after the Olympics."
Sullivan says an invasion would likely begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks, followed by a ground invasion. Reiterates to Americans that it is time to leave now, while commercial options exist and roads are open. US military will not be sent in for rescues, he says.
"We are not saying a final decision has been made by President Putin," Sullivan says. But "we are in an urgent situation."
"Russia has all the forces it needs to conduct a major military action," he says, "in very short order."
A Russian attack "could take a range of different forms," Sullivan says. "One of those forms is a rapid assault on the city of Kyiv. That is a possible line of attack...They could also choose to move in other parts of Ukraine as well."
"Any American in Ukraine should leave as soon as possible, and in any event in the next 24 to 48 hours," Sullivan said. "We obviously cannot predict the future...but the risk is now high enough and the threat is now immediate enough that this is what prudence demands."

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More from @NatashaBertrand

Feb 2
Breaking: Pentagon Press Sec Kirby confirms that US will soon move additional forces to Romania, Poland and Germany. “These are not permanent moves,” he says. “These forces are not going to fight in Ukraine.” Going to shore up NATO allies.
So: 1,000 troops will be moved from Germany to Romania
And 2,000 will be moved from the US to Europe— Specifically, to Poland and Germany.
These forces are separate and in addition to the 8,500 troops on heightened alert now in the US, Kirby says.
Kirby confirms El País reporting on documents US and NATO sent to Russia, says US didn’t leak it but now that it’s out there, it shows unity among allies english.elpais.com/usa/2022-02-02…
Read 5 tweets
Jan 23
Breaking: State Dept announces reducing staff at Embassy in Kyiv. “The Department of State authorized the voluntary departure of US direct hire employees and ordered the departure of eligible family members from Embassy Kyiv due to the continued threat of Russian military action”
Continued: “US citizens in Ukraine should consider departing now using commercial or other privately available transportation options.”
CNN reported Friday that the embassy had requested that the State Department authorize this departure as Russia has continued to mass forces and equipment near Ukraine’s borders, sparking fears of a renewed invasion.  cnn.com/2022/01/21/pol…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 22
Breaking: The UK foreign office said in a statement on Saturday that it has information the Russian government is planning to "install a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv as it considers whether to invade and occupy Ukraine."
“The former Ukrainian MP Yevhen Murayev is being considered as a potential candidate," the British Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office said in a statement.
NSC spokesperson @emilyhorne46 says in response “This kind of plotting is deeply concerning. The Ukrainian people have the sovereign right to determine their own future, and we stand with our democratically-elected partners in Ukraine.”
Read 4 tweets
Jan 22
SCOOP The US embassy in Kyiv requested today that State Dept authorize departure of nonessential staff & families from the embassy.
The US has informed Ukraine that they are “likely to start evacuations as early as next week” of families of diplomats.w/ @mchancecnn @kylieatwood
Ukrainian President Zelensky has spoken to US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, about the matter and told him if the United States took such a dramatic step, it would be an “overreaction," per source close to Ukrainian government.
A State Department spokesperson said that they have “nothing to announce at this time,” adding, “We conduct rigorous contingency planning, as we always do, in the event the security situation deteriorates.” A spokesperson for the embassy declined to comment.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 18
NEW: In addition to considering how to help the Ukrainian military and government fend off an invasion, the US is evaluating options for bolstering Ukrainian forces' ability to resist a potential Russian occupation. cnn.com/2022/01/18/pol…
That includes potentially providing the Ukrainian Army with additional ammunition, mortars, Javelin anti-tank missiles, and anti-aircraft missile systems, which would likely come from NATO allies, a senior US official told CNN.
Biden has said that sending US troops to Ukraine to fight a war w/ Russia is off the table. But special operations forces already rotate in & out of the country to provide training and it is possible that other agencies could provide some support, likely the CIA, an official said
Read 5 tweets
Jan 14
Scoop: The US has information that indicates Russia has prepositioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine, a US official told CNN on Friday, in an attempt to create a pretext for an invasion. Story to come.
The official said the US has evidence that the operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces.
The allegation echoes a statement released by Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense on Friday, which said that Russian special services are preparing provocations against Russian forces in an attempt to frame Ukraine. NSA Sullivan hinted at this intel on Thursday.
Read 5 tweets

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