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Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
@mercoglianos
Feb 12, 2022 • 11 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
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1/I presented my paper "World War II Expeditionary Logisitics and Support in the Pacific" at the 2022 Virtual Expeditionary Warfare Conference.

The focus was on early WWII Pacific naval logistics, specifically oil and repair from Dec 41 to Feb 43...
2/Most histories - @navy1944 & #IanToll - focus on the exploits of the fast carrier task forces and the six @USNavy carriers: Enterprise, Lexington, Saratoga, Yorktown, Hornet & Wasp.

Yet, behind the scenes, these fast carriers required an extensive logistics network...
3/Built for commercial service under Merchant Marine Act of 1936, these tankers included national defense features: high speed, twin screws & provisions for guns/comms.

Six of them served as fast oilers in the Pacific: Neosho, Cimarron, Platte, Kaskaskia, Guadalupe & Sabine...
4/The Acadia Conference set the concept of Germany First and required @USPacificFleet to defend the area of Hawaii-Midway-Johnson Island and the vital sea line of communication to Sydney from SF (7600nm), Panama (7100nm) & Hawaii (5100nm).

This required base development...
5/Joint ops by @USArmy @USNavy & @USMC, plus commercial ships from @APLShipping @MatsonLines, allowed the development of bases & reinforcements to hold the line.

Ops of fast carrier task forces in the south Pacific demo the need for both fast oilers & civilian tankers...
6/The bulk of the @USNavy & @Australian_Navy operated in the Guadalcanal campaign. To initially support the op, tenders, repair, store & ammo ships were forward deployed to Tonga, then Noumea. The need for more extensive support became clear after Savo Island...
7/The campaign resulted in a large number of ships sunk (red) & damaged (blue). All of the ships sunk were replaced by new builds, some in the course of the war. Ships damaged received assistance in theater and then sailed to drydocks and yards in Australia, Hawaii & US...
8/Case in point USS Minneapolis (CA36). She was hit in her engine room and lost her bow to Type 93 torpedoes at the Battle of Tassafaronga. She received ad hoc repair at Tulagi from CBs and then sailed to Pearl Harbor for a new bow.

Damaged in Nov 42, she was back in Apr 43...
9/Fast forward, could the US protect an extensive sea line of communication, provide sufficient logistics to sustain ops across Pacific & do we have the capability to repair ships in theater and shipyards to build and repair?

The lessons from early WWII logistics resonate today.
10/@CSBA_ study on Maritime Logistics makes the case for what is required in a modern sea projection mission across the Pacific. One if the areas of deficiencies is in oilers, commercial tankers and repair facilities.

csbaonline.org/research/publi…
A @USPacificFleet study in Apr 42 determined to operate four fast carrier task forces would require:

5 fast oilers
3 older oilers as shuttle & station ships
3 commercial tankers, with 2 following every month.

450k bbls of fuel/month to sustain 4 TFs = 370k bbls/month.

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More from @mercoglianos

Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Apr 30
1/Everyone is saying US ports are empty, but for most of these observers, this is their first time looking at the ports and ship data.

Here is some context:
▶️US Container Import Volumes are tracking on the high side for Q1, with only 2022 being higher.
▶️West Coast Mexican & Canadian ports just exceed the capacity of @PortofLA by itself, so the US needs cargo to flow into its ports.
▶️The four biggest US ports are extremely dependent on China imports:
@PortofLA 62%
@PortNYNJ 27%
@portoflongbeach 65%
@GaPorts 35%

It takes about 2-3 weeks to sail from East Asia to the West Coast about 4-6 weeks. With the tariffs going into affect on all cargo loaded after April 9, those ships have arrived on the West Coast and they will be on the East/Gulf Coast mid-May.Image
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2/As I have stated previously:

▶️The idea that US ports are empty or the ships are not sailing to the US is false as in this video.

▶️What is happening is the data for the ports are showing the dip in imports, with @PortofLA showing a 35% drop in Week 19 (May 4-10).

▶️The thing to watch is the container volumes departing China for the US and the slight uptick at the end of April.

The 145% is extreme, but is the mark up enough to deter companies from ordering inventory to replace everything that came in during Q1? Also, is there even a suitable alternative to the Chinese manufactured goods and what will be the overall cost differential, especially for low-cost, but high-mark up items?
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3/The question is how does industry react? @FreightWaves and @FreightAlley asked 20 firms across four sectors:

▶️Automotive and Transportation
▶️Retail and Consumer Goods
▶️Technology and Electronics
▶️Industrial and Manufacturing

They range from revised financial guidance and pausing productions; to @Walmart resuming some Chinese suppliers; shifting productions to other countries; and some like @whirlpoolusa see them as a competitive advantage.

freightwaves.com/news/20-compan…
Read 4 tweets
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Apr 26
1/Everyone has to be careful about misreading shipping data. This chart from @MarineTraffic shows normal density for containerships and shows icons for all vessels destined for the US. Image
2/The data from the @PortofLA is showing that cargo for this week (which is coming in before the Apr 9 loading date) is expected to be 56% over the same week last week. This is on top of a record Q1 with a lot of front loading. Image
@PortofLA 3/The Blank Sailings everyone is hearing of is currently at 10% with 75 sailings out of 718 between 28 April and 1 June. These cancellations are not unusual; in May last year there were 19 blank sailings to the West Coast and 22 in May. Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Feb 18
1/Great podcast with @CavasShips, @CSSProvision & @brentdsadler.

One of the key takeaways is this misguided concept set forth by the former SecNav and CNO of @USNavy that we lack shipbuilding capacity in the US.

This is FALSE!
2/First, the issue is the lack of contracts with the current yards and the fact that nearly all shipyards have one sole customer...the @USNavy. Therefore they have to be burdened with a sea of @NAVSEA rules and inspectors. Image
3/Globally, we have seen a reduction in global shipbuilding capacity from 700 yards in 2007 to 300 in 2022. That is a reduction of ship construction capacity from 2000 ships to 1200. Plus, this capacity is focused on 9 companies in China, Korea & Japan.

splash247.com/shipbuilders-s…
Read 15 tweets
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Feb 18
1/The damage to USS Harry S Truman (CVN-75) has me thinking along the same lines as when USNS Big Horn (T-AO 198) ran aground off Oman and left the Lincoln battlegroup without an oiler.

What if Truman was damaged in battle and what is the historical comparison that the US Navy can look towards?
2/Much like I compared Big Horn's loss to that of USS Pecos in January 1942, the situation early in the Pacific War may provide a good example for the @USNavy for a potential peer-to-peer conflict in the Pacific.

gcaptain.com/for-want-of-an…
3/At the start of the Pacific War in December 1941, the US Navy had 3 carriers in the Pacific with another 3 in the Atlantic (not counting Ranger). The US faced off against 6 Japanese fleet carriers as brought to bear off Hawaii.

How did the US carriers fare in the first half of the war?Image
Read 15 tweets
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Jan 10
1/I don't think the author of this article understands how the ocean can be used to fight the #LosAngelesFire #PalisadesFire.

First, what is needed is water to supply fire engines and tenders (tankers). When the fires burned through residential and commercial areas, the water pipes are opened and every structure pulls on the system.
2/Water systems are designed to operate off reservoirs, elevated tanks, pumping stations, or a combination of all. Normally, pumping stations fill elevated tanks during low-consumption periods. The tanks & reservoirs use the weight of the water and gravity to push water through the pipes.Image
3/As was noted by the director of @LADWP, the tanks were drained due to consumption and as fires opened lines.

The system pumps could not refill the tanks & charge the pipes. This resulted in the loss of pressure on all the hydrants, which has happened in past fires. Image
Read 10 tweets
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Nov 7, 2024
1️⃣ Shipbuilding & Finance

The US builds 0.1% of the world's ships; China 51.0%.

The issues are not just economy of scale, but how the nation supports the sector in terms of corporation taxes, availability of financing, and depreciation of ships.

Shipbuilding is critical not just for the commercial sector but also the military; in terms of construction and repairs.Image
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2️⃣ International Freight

The only US-flag ships in international trade are receiving a stipend through the Maritime and Tanker Security Programs, along with military charters under US Transportation Command.

Most of these ships are owned by foreign companies with US subsidiaries, i.e. Maersk Lines, Limited, APL, or Hapag. Part of the building program should target to replace the foreign-built ships with US-built vessels.

The US can establish a tax discount program for Shippers that allows them to move cargo on US ships and earn tax discounts/rebates.

There also needs to be work with the Dept of Defense to provide priority escort to US ships in contested regions such as the Red Sea with the US covering war risk to incentive shipping on US flag ships.
3️⃣Coastal Shipping

Current law requires US-built, crewed, flagged, and owned (which is more restricted than trucks, rail, and air; but they still possess cabotage provisions).

There should be programs to promote short-sea shipping akin to the James River/I64 barge program.

However, the greatest hindrance to coastal shipping is the need to double-handle cargo in ports and the low cost of trucking vice shipping. What has historically undercut coastal shipping was the development of the Interstate highway and pipelines.

In some areas, we need to alleviate restrictions, such as a waiver to reflag LNG tankers into the fleet until domestic ships can be built.

A program needs to be developed to replace the aged Great Lakes fleet, the coastal tanker fleet, and ferry replacements (the Washington State system is in dire need).

Also, we need to see the application of infrastructure funds to improve the Mississippi system to make it more robust from seasonal issues (this is the 3rd year in a row that low water is hindering export of grain).
Read 6 tweets

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