Thread by @Orla_Hegarty

[Thread] a short story about pandemic misinformation & biased reporting

On 1 April 2021 I was contacted by a newspaper journalist.. 1/

..the journalist attached the reply received from HSPC (who collect Covid data)

It DID NOT say 1 in 1,000 cases

It gave very limited data about *42 outbreaks* investigated by HSE

It reads as someone being helpful guessing at what might be outdoors (construction, sport etc) 2/

..vast majority of Covid cases are not connected to outbreaks..& capacity to investigate outbreaks is also very limited

The journalist took a guess at *42 outbreaks* (262 cases) ..& erroneously related it to total number of cases at that time (236,600 cases, 1 April 2021) 3/

..I replied with comment about spread, & some international research

I said that HSPC **are not gathering data** that would allow them to quantify indoor/outdoor transmission & that **information available couldn’t be used to demonstrate indoor/outdoor transmission** 4/

..the story was published:

“Just one confirmed case of Covid-19 in every thousand is traced to outdoor transmission *new figures reveal* (they didn’t).. Of 232,164 cases recorded 262 were as a result of outdoor transmission, representing 0.1 per cent of the total” 5/

within days it was picked up internationally as “a study”, first in UK:

‘Just one coronavirus infection in every thousand cases occurs outdoors, according to contract tracing data from Ireland” 6/ standard.co.uk/news/uk/one-in…

.. then in USA in The New York Times, again as “a study from Ireland”:

“study from Ireland, which seems to have been more precise about the definition of outdoors, put the share of such transmission at 0.1 percent” 7/

.. in Italy:

“The data coming from an Irish study are sensational. According to data from the beginning of the pandemic on over 232 thousand cases of Covid-19.. only 262, or 1% of the total, are due to outdoor activities” 8/
ilriformista.it/il-rischio-di-…

.. by The Times Science Editor.. & a UK academic: “Prof Simon Clarke, University of Reading, said that data published by Irish Times, was yet more evidence people should be relatively relaxed about outdoor activities” 9/ thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-…

.. then the journalist wrote a follow up .. where headline & opening paragraph aren’t strongly supported by the actual statement below from HPSC 10/ irishtimes.com/news/ireland/i…

..& despite fact Chief Clinical Officer had earlier said it was “misleading data”

“data showing number of cases traced to outdoor settings are “misleading” because figures do not include transmission from activities linked to outdoor gatherings” 11/
thejournal.ie/covid-19-trans…

.. & The New York Times ran it again
“In figures released by health authorities in Ireland, only one in 1,000 coronavirus infections was traced to outdoor transmission” 12/ nytimes.com/2021/05/28/wel…

.. & then it was included as a “research” reference in this academic paper 13/ bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…

.. & in the British Medical Journal as a reliable source /14 bmj.com/content/373/bm…

.. & in another academic paper published in Environmental Health Perspectives /15

“Preliminary analyses suggest that the spread of COVID-19 in outdoor settings is many orders of magnitude lower than indoors (McGreevy 2021)” ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/full/10.12…

.. & in Science Direct

“COVID-19 transmission rates seemed to be lower outdoors than indoors (McGreevy, 2021)” /16

.. & established researchers & reputable media channels started accepting it as fact /17
“data from Ireland's Health Protection Surveillance Centre, obtained by Irish Times, looked at 232,000 COVID-19 cases, found just 1 in 1,000 cases could be traced to outdoor transmission”

… in Ireland there had been a parliamentary question asked.. & the Minister for Health had confirmed it could not be relied on /18

oireachtas.ie/en/debates/que…

.. at the time I tried to correct the record /19

“it’s a fast moving situation & media are under pressure... but we all have ethical responsibilities when speaking publicly in a health emergency”

https://twitter.com/Orla_Hegarty/status/1387681062592131072

.. wait there’s even more /20

..& a research paper in Turkey /21

.. just two days after first publication (5 April 2021) it was put to Dr David Nabarro of WHO in a radio interview /22

..& this too was widely reported, including as a “WHO UPDATE” .. supportive of reopening bars & restaurants (that at the time had been closed under govt restrictions for 3 months) /23 dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-ne…

.. & this “research” was quoted by some politicians (& lobbyists) to support making changes to public health policy /24