“I don’t think most whistleblowers and even short sellers start with the idea that, like, Wow, this can be a great business; all I need to do is pick fights with corporate sociopaths, and I can do really well."

Must-read on @ClarityToast
"Anderson was operating a small brokerage and a software firm that offered due-diligence services to hedge funds. He struggled to make a living. In 2017, his landlord filed suit to evict him from his Inwood apartment. His brokerage reported a net-capital balance of just $58,482"
$NKLA "The rolling truck was the killer detail — the spark that incinerated a high-flying stock to the career-making benefit of Nathan Anderson."

"He used to poke around in shadowy corners, but lately he has been seeing fraud sitting right in the blazing light of day."
“The scale of it is quite massive. I don’t think any system can sustain itself with that scale of grifts happening.”

"A lot of investors prefer the market to be sort of this mass hallucination."
"The market is designed to be a place where these scarce resources of society — capital, labor, materials — are allocated to their most efficient use. But it has just become this otherworldly casino, which is disconnected from the real world.”
“We can find compelling stories all day long, things that we think are totally fucked up,” Block says. “But it’s a lot harder to get investors to think that it matters.”
“I took a very big position” in Riot Blockchain. “I had a very small account and a very young child at home. I wasn’t doing that well. But I believed so strongly in this thesis, the evidence was dead-on, unassailable. I published — and the stock went up, and it kept going up.”
"Your warnings may still be ignored or, even worse, trigger a counterreaction among bullish investors that could end up costing you everything. “Yeah,” Anderson says. “That’s the torture.”
nymag.com/intelligencer/…

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More from @NeckarValue

Feb 13
Short $SPCE

"The worst offender was Virgin Galactic, the stock whose success ignited the SPAC boom.

"Sponsors projected $398m in 2022 sales.
Today, analysts estimate just $8m."

"Insiders have ... unloaded more than $1.7b worth of shares on the public." Image
"The most egregious valuations in the EV space probably belong to the retail charging companies...

Would you pay 50-100x sales for a gas station operator with large capital requirements and massively negative margins"
Read 4 tweets
Feb 10
Fantastic episode.

On Murdoch: "Almost every one of those big initiatives was an act of wild bravery"

"If you put your head down, if you're constantly correcting, you'll get almost everything right. Unless you run out of capital."
"The broadcast networks were surviving on stuff that was inoffensive to the largest number of people. What's happened is the middle in every single business is gone, gone, gone forever."
Hulu's innovator's dilemma

"I was concerned if we didn't get our stuff onto the web somebody's going to steal it. Every single person in my company and NBC hated it. “You're going to destroy my advertising.” "You can't give our broadcast shows, and destroy our book of business.”
Read 5 tweets
Feb 10
Sequoia's Roelof Botha

"Coming to grips with being wrong, not 5% of the time, but 30% of the time, 40% of the time, really eats at your self-confidence, honestly,” Botha said. “I nearly quit the business.”
“That's part of the beauty of this business. Even though you could make big mistakes, there's another at bat tomorrow, because people are starting interesting new companies.
If you're willing to swallow your disappointment, buckle up, get back on the bicycle, get back on the horse, get back on your skis — whichever thing it is that you can identify with – you just try again.”
Read 6 tweets
Feb 9
David Tepper is one of my favorite investors. He marries macro and bottom-up, he's ballsy, and he's having a ton of fun.

From 1993-2013, he compounded at 29% net of fees!

Three times was he down more than 25%, each time he came back stronger.
"Investing with David is like flying, with hours of boredom followed by bouts of sheer terror. He's the quintessential opportunist, but you have to have a cast-iron stomach."

"The media says that hedge funds are the new masters of the universe. We're just a bunch of schmucks."😭
Tepper grew up lower middle-class in Pittsburgh.
A “big kid” and “a joker” he had knack for math and got into investing.

“I used to think buildings were black because that was just the color they made them. But they were black because of the soot.”
Read 28 tweets
Feb 3
Baupost 2021 letter (redacted).

Lengthy, lots of takes on the economy, COVID, yadda yadda. Some discussion of process. No investment takes.

[Marlon Brando voice] "In 1982, four families came together ... Each had significant concerns..." Image
"high and rising interest rates of the period could crush the economy, financial institutions could
fail, and financial markets could falter.

They were seeking reliable compounding while avoiding wrenching downside volatility"
"opportunity regularly migrates across markets, industries, and geographies, as capital flows
inflate the prices of some investments while leaving others orphaned. We employ an investment approach that is fixed in its general principles yet
flexible in its implementation."
Read 10 tweets

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