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Frederik Gieschen Profile picture
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Feb 4 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Massive deck on $SPOT by @patient_capital

static1.squarespace.com/static/5d8b3d8…
Podcasts
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US advertising spend vs. time spent

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More from @NeckarValue

Frederik Gieschen Profile picture
Feb 3
Baupost 2021 letter (redacted).

Lengthy, lots of takes on the economy, COVID, yadda yadda. Some discussion of process. No investment takes.

[Marlon Brando voice] "In 1982, four families came together ... Each had significant concerns..." Image
"high and rising interest rates of the period could crush the economy, financial institutions could
fail, and financial markets could falter.

They were seeking reliable compounding while avoiding wrenching downside volatility"
"opportunity regularly migrates across markets, industries, and geographies, as capital flows
inflate the prices of some investments while leaving others orphaned. We employ an investment approach that is fixed in its general principles yet
flexible in its implementation."
Read 10 tweets
Frederik Gieschen Profile picture
Feb 3
Really enjoyed this conversation with @DaveNadig and @jposhaughnessy

"I'm pretty deeply uninterested in trying to point out, why where we are is broken. I've become less and less interested in that. Not because I think it's unimportant or it's uninteresting...
I just don't think I personally have much of an effect by wading into that. And I think it's much more interesting to focus on what's being built."

"Every day I wake up and this is where I live and I don't live then, I live now and I'm trying to get to tomorrow."
"I feel like that's where guys like us have a little bit of an opportunity to contribute because we have a really strong understanding of the state of play when we woke up this morning.

And you have to start where you wake up, you don't get to start yesterday."
Read 6 tweets
Frederik Gieschen Profile picture
Feb 2
Intersting Bloomberg piece on multi-strat hedge funds and institutional allocators.

"Clients increasingly willing to pay high fees to gain access to... scores of traders who can be easily replaced. A stark contrast to old business model: Launch a fund, call the shots, profit."
What do a lot of institutional allocators want? Steady returns. No blow-up risk. A risk profile that matches that of the allocator seat where upside is limited.
Similar dynamic in private equity and credit. Deploy large checks in brand names that have a portfolio of strategies = efficient due diligence. Trade fees for protection from the brand. Power law kicks in and the rich get richer.
Read 9 tweets
Frederik Gieschen Profile picture
Feb 1
Whitney Baker on learning at Soros & Bridgewater

"If you have a view on something, try to be exposed to the thing closest to that view. If you like gold, buy gold, not miners. Concentrate your conviction views... hedge out stuff you don’t have a view on"
mebfaber.com/2022/01/31/e38… Image
"Kick the tires until there’s no tires left to kick. Have the most rigorous process for increasing your own conviction. If you can kick the tires really hard and make sure that you are concentrated in stuff you have the most conviction in, I found that to be additive."
"let’s say you’re a discretionary stock investor and you’ve got a portfolio of 30 stocks and you’ve got a whole story to remember on all of those stocks...

A lot of your mindshare is taken up by all the 80 things going on across the micro of your book. Image
Read 7 tweets
Frederik Gieschen Profile picture
Feb 1
Lessons from the Titans is filled with observations on legendary industrial companies. These are some of my favorites.

“Their secrets are hardly secrets at all—continuous improvement, rigorous benchmarking, disciplined investment, principled leadership, solid business systems.”
“The reasons for failure and the formulas for success haven’t really changed at all. Whether it be 1950, 1980, or 2020, they are pretty much exactly the same.”
There's no silver bullet: sustainable success is simple but not easy.

The book emphasizes the compounding advantage of getting a lot of small things right.

“... three common drivers: a relentless discipline on costs, cash flow, and capital deployment.”
Read 17 tweets
Frederik Gieschen Profile picture
Jan 30
Richard Bernstein: "Whatever the market spin, Bernstein can and does see through it"

"March 2000: “Attention VCs: Leave Silicon Valley for West Texas,” declaring that technology stocks were overpriced, predicting the real money over the decade would be in energy and commodities"
"August 2005: report highlighting rising number of insider sales by executives at homebuilding companies. Seven months later home prices peaked"

institutionalinvestor.com/article/b150zq…
"The problem with working on the sell side is the amount of travel necessary — the demands on your time and energy are unbelievable. People wonder if I left ­Merrill because of some deep dark secret, but I was just worn out. I needed to do other things."
Read 4 tweets

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