Thread by @ramez

I think there's a high risk that what Putin is doing by threatening Ukraine will backfire on him. Short thread.

1. Putin bet that NATO wouldn't come together. But Biden has done a remarkable job pulling the alliance back together. 1/5

2. Putin believes he has a gas weapon against Europe, but his threats - let alone an invasion - will only accelerate Europe finding alternatives to Russian gas.

2/5

3. If Putin backs down now (the best for everyone) he loses. He's strengthened NATO and Biden. He's probably accelerated Europe finding alternatives to Russian gas.

3/5

4. If Putin invades, that's horrific for the people of Ukraine. It also hurts Putin even more than if he backs down. An invasion will mean sanctions on Russia. It'll regalvanize NATO. And it will even more likely create urgency to get off of Russian gas.

4/5

Putin may very well invade soon. That's a real tragedy if he does. But no matter what he does, I don't see how he comes out of this stronger. He's playing the only hand he knows. In the short term violence is effective. In the long term he's harming himself.

5/5