Thread by @pmarca

"Preference Falsification is the act of communicating a preference that differs from one's true preference. The public frequently [lies], especially to researchers or pollsters, because they believe the conveyed preference is more acceptable socially."

"When articulating preferences, individuals frequently tailor their choices to what [they believe is] socially acceptable. They convey preferences that differ from what they genuinely want."

"Preference Falsification is ubiquitous and has huge social and political consequences, which hinge on interdependencies between individuals' decisions as to what preference to convey publicly. A person who hides his discontent makes it harder for others to express discontent."

"[There is] widespread public support for social options that would be rejected decisively in a secret ballot vote. Privately unpopular policies may be retained indefinitely as people reproduce conformist social pressures through individual acts of Preference Falsification."

"People hide the knowledge on which their true preferences rest. In the process, they distort, corrupt, and impoverish public domain knowledge. They make it harder for others to become informed about the drawbacks of existing arrangements and the merits of alternatives."

"Over long periods, Preference Falsification can dampen a society's capacity to want change by bringing about intellectual narrowness and ossification."

"In the Abilene Paradox, a group of people collectively decide on a course of action that is counter to the preferences of many or all of the individuals in the group."

"The Abilene Paradox involves a common breakdown of group communication in which each member mistakenly believes that their own preferences are counter to the group's and, therefore, does not raise objections."

"In groupthink, individuals are not acting contrary to their conscious wishes and generally feel good about the decisions the group has reached. In the Abilene Paradox, the individuals acting contrary to their own wishes will have negative feelings about the outcome."

"The Abilene Paradox occurs when individuals experience stress concerning the group potentially expressing negative attitudes towards them if they do not go along. This stress arises from 'negative fantasies'—unpleasant visualizations of what the group might say or do..."

"...if individuals are honest about their opinions—when there is real risk" of displeasure and negative consequences for not going along. The individual may experience 'separation anxiety', fearing exclusion from the group."

"Preference falsification is 'an individual act' that depends on the context: people mask their preferences in one setting but not in another, often depending on the rewards or punishments associated with a chosen preference."

"Penalties for voicing a public preference can be physical, economic, or social and can range from a negative remark, a disapproving gesture, or guarded criticism to unmitigated denigration, harassment, loss of reputation, imprisonment, torture or even death."

"What makes a government democratic, though, is not that it keeps people from being penalized for their public preferences, but rather that a democracy merely restricts the menu of possible penalties."

"As people's thoughts about other people's thoughts change, there is a shift in incentives, and hence people's public preferences can shift: if you come to believe that there is a 'silent majority' believing what you believe, you probably won't be silent for very long."

"When people's perceptions of what other people think are shifting rapidly, there can be a bandwagon effect. Changing perceptions of other people's thoughts can create a kind of cascade from one social state to another [leading to, among other things, political revolution]."

"It can be frustrating/distressing to believe something other people think implausible/offensive/stupid. Dissenters may bring their private preferences into line with perceived public opinion. Those oppressed by the status quo can come to collaborate in their own oppression."

"Communism persisted not only because of brute terror, but also because of a pervasive culture of mendacity. People joined organizations they abhorred, followed orders they considered nonsensical, cheered speakers they despised and ostracized dissidents they admired."

"A unanimous vote of the Writers' Union denounced Boris Pasternak as an enemy of the Soviet Union for producing Doctor Zhivago, even though they widely admired the writer and his novel. In the USSR, of course, force was relevant; but preference falsification also played a role."

"In some cases, preference falsification produces a situation of stability, but in other cases it is possible to get rapid, unforeseen, even unforeseeable shifts. Recall that public preferences are a function of what people think that other people think."

"It follows that when in Eastern Europe [in 1989] the level of apparent public opposition started to rise, people's public preferences changed quickly, as they came closer to their private preferences."

"Not only governments, but also policies, customs and fashions can be abruptly abandoned when people who have helped sustain them suddenly discover a common desire for change."

"Societies reach a tipping point when social pressures no longer support the status quo, but even undermine it. Eventually it is support for the status quo that produces reputational loss."

"A revolutionary bandwagon may help create the discontent that keeps it in motion. Switches from the government to the opposition can make people who had been resigned to the status quo recognize the possibility of political change."

"Preference Falsification [causes] the preservation of widely disliked structures and confers of an aura of stability on structures vulnerable to sudden collapse. A minor event may activate a bandwagon that generates massive yet unanticipated change."

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preferenc…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abilene_p…
psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-gr…
newrepublic.com/article/63480/…
hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?is…