Thread by @althecat

Madagascar #ExtremeWeather Thread:

Yet another Indian Ocean Tropical Storm, #Dumako is forecast to make landfall in Madagascar in the next 24 hours.

And at around the same time models suggest a more dangerous Tropical Cyclone may form following closely behind.

#Dumako is a relatively minor storm and is forecast to weaken on its approach but as you can see here, simulations are pointing to a more dangerous storm following closely in Dumako's wake.

The new cyclone is modelled to form as #Invest93s & #Invest96s merge.

At this stage this formation event is just a possibility, but if it does take place landfall will follow fairly quickly afterwards, and at the moment its track over Madagascar looks very similar to that of #Batsirai which killed over 100 people and destroyed around 100,000 homes.

The two Tropical disturbances which simulation models suggest may become a new cyclone can both be seen here in a 24 visual satellite animation. #Invest93s is below #Invest96s. And if you look carefully you can see both rotating in a clockwise direction.

The following two satellite floater images show cloud top temperatures which indicate altitude and therefore intensity of convection they come from tropicaltidbits.com/sat/ and depict show a 6 hour period.

First... #Invest93s [tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.…]

... and second. #Invest96s [tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.…]

Here's another closer up 12h animation of the interaction between the two depressions. The center of rotation of #Invest96s is roughly 300 nautical miles north east of #Invest93s which can be followed on the track line.

This image shows my estimation of distance between the two centers of circulation at present.

Cyclone genesis - is very complex and the hashtags #Invest93S and #Invest96S will likely be the best place to follow expert opinion.

The next 24-48 hours will be critical. These two animations show the latest prognostications from ECMWF and GFS models.

Both of these models show 240 hours. The previous tweet shows the ECMWF.

Here is the latest GFS model. Which shows a cyclone forming earlier and achieving greater intensity than the ECMWF model.

Two MLSP plots from latest models.

1. Left ECMWF (168 hours)
2. Right GFS (90 hours)

Note: Both simulation forecasts are outside the range of reliable prediction for tropical storms.

/ENDS

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