I talked to @hsu_steve about tensions in Eastern Europe, Russian and Chinese military technology, the rise of China, and his work on IVF. A fascinating guy, and an important conversation on a wide range of topics. richardhanania.substack.com/p/the-future-o…
On the importance of Russian hypersonic missiles. The US has even less leverage than it believes in the Ukraine crisis. We both share the concern that American leaders are once again sleepwalking into disaster, this time with even graver consequences than before.
On how a potential Chinese assault on Taiwan might go.
How should a non-expert who doesn't speak Chinese think about the rise of China and judge how its system functions? You should ignore most experts, who have been wrong because of ideology, and look at results.
On meritocracy in the Chinese system and its reliance on standardized tests. Nothing like the SAT, which isolates g, but the gaokao measures intelligence and conscientiousness. Unlike US government officials, no one who deals with Chinese officials thinks they're incompetent.
"if you make an estimate of the number of high ability STEM PhDs in China in the near future, compared to the United States, it could be an order of magnitude larger. I’m not talking about two times larger. We’re talking about 10 times larger."
In Denmark, already 10% of children are born through IVF. This likely means closer to 20%-30% in higher SES categories. A revolutionary change in how humans are conceived that has occurred over just a few decades.
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Paul Ehrlich has passed away, and I wanted to see whether he was as bad as his quotes and short clips suggest. Surely, there might be some nuance or careful thought in his worldview. Nobody is that purely evil.
So I picked up The Population Bomb and started reading.
It turns out, he's even worse than you think!
I’m putting together a thread below.
Quotes taken out of context don't get at the degree to which he is consistently evil and misanthropic. He had an entire system that he pursued in which human life was constantly denigrated and devalued, with an eye toward elimination. You’re left wondering what you’re even reducing human population for, since every form of life seems to be not worth living.
Some people are racist and just hate poor and brown people. Some hate the rich. Paul Ehrlich doesn't discriminate. He wants you not to exist if he can get away with it. But if he can't stop you from living, he wants you to have a much worse quality of life.
Ehrlich has a plan for both advanced and poor countries. He has blueprints for entire regions of the globe.
Humans do not have agency in Ehrlich’s world. They’re simple consumers of resources, with no ability to create, better their circumstances, or exert individual agency to make the world a better place, except to the extent that they ensure fellow humans no longer exist.
You might find all of this depressing. But I’ve found reading Ehrlich invigorating. It is a reminder of how much evil there is in the world. Recall that Ehrlich was not some guy in his room putting out diatribes. He was a professor at Stanford, a highly decorated scientist, and one of the most prominent public intellectuals of his generation. While reading Ehrlich today, know that he has intellectual descendants in the form of degrowthers and other environmental extremists, along with anti-capitalists who don’t understand the basis of prosperity and prioritize redistributing wealth over all else.
First of all, the cover. Children are starving as you're reading this. Even worse, more are being born! The existence of more humans is supposed to hit you harder than starvation. I like the title of the earlier book. "The End of Affluence." Another brilliant prediction.
Here's the entire prologue where his famous predictions are made about mass starvation. It's only two pages, you can read the whole thing. He uses the prologue to make predictions that would soon be discredited and call for coercion, and denounces treating "the symptoms of the cancer of population growth." Ehrlich doesn't want to hear about how you might have a plan to improve people's lives. You're just treating symptoms! He starts with a demand that fewer humans is the only option worth considering.
US isn't a free market paradise compared to Europe. But labor law stands out. California has high taxes and other left-wing policies. But Silicon Valley would be impossible in Europe. You can trace the exact ways in which its business model based on innovation is illegal.
American companies often have to make large severance payments to fired workers. In much of Europe, these are mandated by law and much larger. And large German companies can't even choose who to lay off. They must factor in tenure and things like family obligations.
This guy was sued by his own firm for falsely inflating his role as “Head of Macro,” misusing confidential information to promote his own fund, breaching debt obligations, and defaming the firm to investors.
Yes, it's unsurprising that Trump brought him into the party.
He eventually admitted sharing confidential information and paid the costs of the lawsuit.
He called himself "Head of Macro," a position that didn't exist. The company says he was hired as a Research Analyst and then fired for poor performance. Fishback has now reinvented himself as a MAGA influencer.
There's a human preference for light skin. It shows up almost everywhere and predates colonialism. Indians and blacks are the darkest groups Americans are exposed to or interact with in any significant degree.
But blacks, in addition to the historical guilt, have traits many Americans like. They're good at sports, good with women, and charming enough to be actors and entertainers.
US-India relationship is being harmed because Pakistan is more willing to kiss up to Trump, and Modi has too much pride to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize when he didn’t do anything.
Mr. Trump contends that he used trade as leverage to get the two sides to stop fighting. After these enticements and warnings, he said, “all of a sudden they said, ‘I think we will stop’” the fighting.