I talked to @hsu_steve about tensions in Eastern Europe, Russian and Chinese military technology, the rise of China, and his work on IVF. A fascinating guy, and an important conversation on a wide range of topics. richardhanania.substack.com/p/the-future-o…
On the importance of Russian hypersonic missiles. The US has even less leverage than it believes in the Ukraine crisis. We both share the concern that American leaders are once again sleepwalking into disaster, this time with even graver consequences than before.
On how a potential Chinese assault on Taiwan might go.
How should a non-expert who doesn't speak Chinese think about the rise of China and judge how its system functions? You should ignore most experts, who have been wrong because of ideology, and look at results.
On meritocracy in the Chinese system and its reliance on standardized tests. Nothing like the SAT, which isolates g, but the gaokao measures intelligence and conscientiousness. Unlike US government officials, no one who deals with Chinese officials thinks they're incompetent.
"if you make an estimate of the number of high ability STEM PhDs in China in the near future, compared to the United States, it could be an order of magnitude larger. I’m not talking about two times larger. We’re talking about 10 times larger."
In Denmark, already 10% of children are born through IVF. This likely means closer to 20%-30% in higher SES categories. A revolutionary change in how humans are conceived that has occurred over just a few decades.
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Man comes to the US from Lebanon. Starts out delivering pizzas, becomes a Nobel winning neuroscientist. Trump freezes his funding, he gets an email from China offering to move his lab “any city, any university I want" with guaranteed funding for 20 years.
How to think about immigration. You should be paranoid about the possibility that the US rejects geniuses. One brilliant entrepreneur can or inventor can carry a lot of dead weight. Almost all immigration is good, but this would be true even if it wasn't. richardhanania.com/p/exchange-wit…
Earlier I discussed Casey Means, Trump's nominee for Surgeon General, and her mystical and quack beliefs.
I've looked into her story about how she left her residency. It's very strange, and indicates that there's something that we don't yet know.
Means says she was in an otolaryngology residency and almost finished, but she instead decided to quit because her surgical residency didn't focus on nutrition enough. Isn't that something she would have known well before 4 years of residency, on top of medical school?
I think the real reason was she was unfit. Look at her cohort. The other two doctors went straight through their residency normally. Means, in contrast, had a one month gap between June-July 2018. I don't know what can explain this, but it indicates something abnormal happened.
Trump just nominated Casey Means for Surgeon General.
This is a lunatic who will do serious damage to public health. Thread here, which will only be able to scratch the surface.
She'll be the first occupant of the office to believe in using spiritual mediums, praying to ancestor shrines, doing full moon ceremonies to amplify her dreams, asking the trees in the forest to deliver her a hunky man, being a shroomhead, and praising indigenous wisdom.
She has no academic achievements to speak of. All she did was med school and she dropped out before completing her residency. This is weird, as anyone in medicine will tell you.
I've written the Trump reckoning you've been waiting for.
I used to think Dems would turn us into Western Europe. That looks good now when the other side is offering third world levels of incompetence, corruption, and authoritarianism.
I convinced myself that the choice was between leftism and conservatism, but it's actually first world leftism versus third world authoritarianism.
I didn't want to believe it! It means I have to be much more pessimistic about the future of America.
Partly it's because I was getting bad information. People close to the admin told me that RFK wouldn't be at HHS and economic policy wouldn't be so insane. But it turns out I was only talking to people who agreed with me, and they were engaging in their own wishful thinking.
Here is Vinod Balachandran, the lead researcher on a team that just created an mRNA vaccine for pancreatic cancer, which has a 90% death rate.
His study showed that within five years, 75% of patients were both alive and cancer free, a miraculous result. mRNA technology for covid was of course pioneered by Katalin Karikó, a woman from rural Turkey.
We debate immigration and ideas, numbers and data. What gets me is the overwhelming gap between the accomplishments of scientists like this and the lives that they're saving on the one side, and the sense of mediocrity you get from immigration critics that is so overwhelming it's offensive. One guy is unlocking the mysteries of the cell and giving those who were doomed to a painful death more time on this earth with friends and family. The other is whining "I want whites to own the local 7/11."
For me, it's sometimes easier to be motivated by hate than a positive vision. Many people are like that. But if that's you, it's good to direct your hate at the right targets. Immigration restrictionists hate people because of what they look like or where they were born. That's wrong, and should be replaced by a feeling of hatred towards those who would deny humanity its ability to move forward because they need reasons to feel superior to others.
One genius creates value that outweighs what thousands and thousands of less spectacular individuals cost. That's even granting the premise of restrictionists that the average immigrant is a cost, which is simply not true. richardhanania.com/p/exchange-wit…
To be fair, here is a thread arguing that the results might not be as impressive as they originally seem. This is what science is about, any new innovation will be validated or discredited and learned from. It will be talented people from all over the world who push knowledge forward no matter what the result. The bitter racists will have nothing to contribute to this mission regardless of what the results of any particular line of research are, except perhaps delaying human progress.
Ayn Rand on racists as losers: “The overwhelming majority of racists are men who have earned no sense of personal identity, who can claim no individual achievement or distinction, and who seek the illusion of a ‘tribal self-esteem’ by alleging the inferiority of some other tribe”
“Observe the hysterical intensity of the Southern racists; observe also that racism is much more prevalent among the poor white trash than among their intellectual betters.”
“The simplest collective to join, the easiest one to identify—particularly for people of limited intelligence—the least demanding form of ‘belonging’ and of ‘togetherness’ is: race.”