I talked to @hsu_steve about tensions in Eastern Europe, Russian and Chinese military technology, the rise of China, and his work on IVF. A fascinating guy, and an important conversation on a wide range of topics. richardhanania.substack.com/p/the-future-o…
On the importance of Russian hypersonic missiles. The US has even less leverage than it believes in the Ukraine crisis. We both share the concern that American leaders are once again sleepwalking into disaster, this time with even graver consequences than before.
On how a potential Chinese assault on Taiwan might go.
How should a non-expert who doesn't speak Chinese think about the rise of China and judge how its system functions? You should ignore most experts, who have been wrong because of ideology, and look at results.
On meritocracy in the Chinese system and its reliance on standardized tests. Nothing like the SAT, which isolates g, but the gaokao measures intelligence and conscientiousness. Unlike US government officials, no one who deals with Chinese officials thinks they're incompetent.
"if you make an estimate of the number of high ability STEM PhDs in China in the near future, compared to the United States, it could be an order of magnitude larger. I’m not talking about two times larger. We’re talking about 10 times larger."
In Denmark, already 10% of children are born through IVF. This likely means closer to 20%-30% in higher SES categories. A revolutionary change in how humans are conceived that has occurred over just a few decades.
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US-India relationship is being harmed because Pakistan is more willing to kiss up to Trump, and Modi has too much pride to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize when he didn’t do anything.
Mr. Trump contends that he used trade as leverage to get the two sides to stop fighting. After these enticements and warnings, he said, “all of a sudden they said, ‘I think we will stop’” the fighting.
Ghislaine Maxwell transcripts released! See here for thread on the most interesting parts. 1/n
Ghislaine is asked whether Epstein ever received money from any intelligence agency, including Mossad. She replies that not as far as she knows and she would be surprised if he did.
Epstein started taking testosterone in the late 1990s. But he was not on any other substances.
Man comes to the US from Lebanon. Starts out delivering pizzas, becomes a Nobel winning neuroscientist. Trump freezes his funding, he gets an email from China offering to move his lab “any city, any university I want" with guaranteed funding for 20 years.
How to think about immigration. You should be paranoid about the possibility that the US rejects geniuses. One brilliant entrepreneur can or inventor can carry a lot of dead weight. Almost all immigration is good, but this would be true even if it wasn't. richardhanania.com/p/exchange-wit…
Earlier I discussed Casey Means, Trump's nominee for Surgeon General, and her mystical and quack beliefs.
I've looked into her story about how she left her residency. It's very strange, and indicates that there's something that we don't yet know.
Means says she was in an otolaryngology residency and almost finished, but she instead decided to quit because her surgical residency didn't focus on nutrition enough. Isn't that something she would have known well before 4 years of residency, on top of medical school?
I think the real reason was she was unfit. Look at her cohort. The other two doctors went straight through their residency normally. Means, in contrast, had a one month gap between June-July 2018. I don't know what can explain this, but it indicates something abnormal happened.
Trump just nominated Casey Means for Surgeon General.
This is a lunatic who will do serious damage to public health. Thread here, which will only be able to scratch the surface.
She'll be the first occupant of the office to believe in using spiritual mediums, praying to ancestor shrines, doing full moon ceremonies to amplify her dreams, asking the trees in the forest to deliver her a hunky man, being a shroomhead, and praising indigenous wisdom.
She has no academic achievements to speak of. All she did was med school and she dropped out before completing her residency. This is weird, as anyone in medicine will tell you.
I've written the Trump reckoning you've been waiting for.
I used to think Dems would turn us into Western Europe. That looks good now when the other side is offering third world levels of incompetence, corruption, and authoritarianism.
I convinced myself that the choice was between leftism and conservatism, but it's actually first world leftism versus third world authoritarianism.
I didn't want to believe it! It means I have to be much more pessimistic about the future of America.
Partly it's because I was getting bad information. People close to the admin told me that RFK wouldn't be at HHS and economic policy wouldn't be so insane. But it turns out I was only talking to people who agreed with me, and they were engaging in their own wishful thinking.