Thread by @Roach_Resources

Thoughts on $ARCH earnings:

Already basically net cash, expects ARO 80% paid down this year.

Capital Returns Plan is to split discretionary FCF (ex Capex & ARO funding) 50/50 between:

1) Quarterly div

2) buybacks/spec divs/ dealing with convertible in some fashion.

⬇️ 1/N

- Say CapEx comes in around ~$130m for the year, contribution to Mine Retirement fund @ $100m...

not unreasonable at all to guess at ~$300m in returns coming to shareholders through Q2-Q4

2/N ⬇️

Met shipped 10% more volume than I would have thought, but costs were higher than expected (~$85/ton) and sales prices lower ($206/ton for coking). Would love clarity on what their seaborne realizations are relative to the USEC prints for HVA/HVB/LV...

3/N ⬇️

Only have ~500k tons priced & committed to domestic met.

AKA, we could see seaborne shipments close to 2m tons in Q1'22. That is bonkers - leaving themselves completely exposed to whatever post-Olympics has in store for met market. I believe @acosgrove003 called that, GJ

4/n⬇️

Thermal looks good, no surprises there, costs didn't inflate as much as met did. Taking the over on costs, margin looks like $3/ton for '22.

Overall good quarter, but curious for more clarity on what they expect out of met realizations relative to benchmark pricing going forward

And potentially a lot, lot more depending on what happens with the convertible