Thread by @JMichaelWaller

There won't be a big war anytime soon. From my colleague Andrei Illarionov. ⁦@AnIllarionov⁩ centerforsecuritypolicy.org/there-wont-be-…

@AnIllarionov 2) "While provocations on the Russian-Ukrainian border and local hostilities are possible, there will be no large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine and big war in Europe in the near future," Andrei Illarionov writes. I agree.

@AnIllarionov 3) "Instead, this has been a psychological operation designed to intimidate Ukrainian leadership to surrender to Putin by agreeing to the execution of the Minsk agreements," Illarionov says.

@AnIllarionov 4) "The objective is to make Ukrainians – both authorities and citizens – believe in the real prospect of a full-scale war and, under its threat, agree to Minsk, which will seem like a small loss when compared to losses incurred in a full-scale war."

@AnIllarionov 5) "When Putin acts openly, as he is now, it is not preparation of a real attack, but the conduct of operations of a different nature – bluff, blackmail, and intimidation."

@AnIllarionov 6) During Russia's major Zapad-2021 military exercise with Belarus last September, involving 200,000 troops, there was almost no media or political concern that Russia would invade Ukraine. On October 30, 2021, after Zapad ended, a media campaign began to whip up invasion fears.

@AnIllarionov 7) "In the three and a half months since October 30, 2021, several hundred stories about the 'imminent' Russian attack have been published in the English-language media alone."

@AnIllarionov 8) Russia has about 25% fewer troops near Ukraine now than it did in September, a max of 148,000 from about 200,000. Its deployments are in a more aggressive fashion, but the numbers suggest no big invasion (apart from what Biden called somewhat acceptable "minor incursions").

@AnIllarionov 9) "Ukrainian forces are also hardened by almost eight years of combat experience, with 400,000 Ukrainian veterans of the War in the East. Ukrainian troops are at least equally skilled than Russian and Russian-backed separatist troops." Ukraine has better kill ratio than enemy.

@AnIllarionov 10) Illarionov provides troop numbers necessary for victory in previous conflicts and concludes, "at the moment Putin clearly does not have enough troops to launch a large-scale operation against Ukraine, let alone a full-scale war or a new world war."