Thread by @BretDevereaux

So for one, if Putin is going to own the libs by not invading Ukraine, wow, yes, I am totally owned. Pwned, even.

But seriously if Russia actually withdraws the troops from the border, that is a huge win for NATO and Biden should do a giant victory lap w/ other NATO leaders. 1/8

https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1493501942072496129

Figure it this way: assuming Russia is backing down, there are really two possibilities here.

Possibility one: Putin was bluffing. He moved forces to the border and made threatening noises (and then followed up with demands) in the hopes NATO would blink... 2/8

...or that the stress would divide NATO. It didn't work. Allies mostly handled it well - sure, some posturing from all of the majors (inc. USA) but no concessions, no fatal split.

If this was a bluff, Putin got called on it and folded. Embarrassing. 3/8

The other possibility is that Putin moved the troops intending to attack, in which case his situation is worse: he was deterred.

And Biden et al. should be loud and proud: NATO worked! Our alliance for the purpose of not having wars didn't have a war. 4/8

The reason I think that western leaders need to be loud about this is because a lot of regular folks don't watch this stuff closely and don't really know what things like NATO are for and heaven knows you can't trust cable news to explain it to them. 5/8

If Putin was deterred, or his bluff called, then NATO worked in a big way and that's a big opportunity, in the US for instance, for Biden to show this as an example of how an allies-oriented, sensible foreign policy can make the world a better place and stop wars. 6/8

Now you see I keep hedging with 'if' the Russian buildup draws down because until the troops actually leave, I am not entirely convinced the deescalation is real. Putin has shown a flare for misdirection and disinformation (e.g. Georgia, the Donbass, Crimea). 7/8

And it's never been clear exactly how fully 'in the loop' the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been in this process.

But again, if Putin wants to 'pwn' me, yes, don't invade Ukraine and I will be totally, irretrievably 'pwned.' end/8