Trent Telenko Profile picture
Feb 15, 2022 18 tweets 9 min read Read on X
The subject of this thread is "Commercial Open Source Military Radar Detection in Semi Real Time" courtesy of Bellingcat.

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bellingcat.com/resources/2022…
This is text from the beginning of the previous link:

The Radar Interference Tracker (RIT) is a new tool created by Ollie Ballinger that allows anyone to search for and potentially locate active military radar systems anywhere on earth.

Image- Sentinel-1 interference pattern
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It turns out that the Sentinal-1 commercial synthetic aperture radar (SAR) signal frequency is interfered with by C-band radars like those used by Patriot, S-300P FLAP LID & successors, 5N62 SQUARE PAIR, in fact a good number of Russian acquisition and engagement radars.
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Two Sentinal-1 SAR-sat passes and you get an interference pattern "X" that marks the spot of a C-band emitter.

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Also via Bellingcat:

Other military radars that operate on the same C-band frequency include naval radars such as the Japanese FCS-3, the Chinese Type-381 and the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system. All should be detectable when switched on and in view of Sentinel-1.
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The ability of non-state actors UAV's to play SEAD games by going after Patriot C-band emitters with this tool is also a threat not to be underestimated.
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There are two responses to this radar interference tool tracking, one operational and one technological.

The operational one needs WW2 style close range anti-drone defense of primary ADA like the 50 cal Maxon turret was shielding 40mm & 90 mm HAA from strafing fighters.

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Smart and/or drone combat experienced SAM operators have already are already doing this. Facebook posts show Ukrainians attaching DShKM and ZU-23-2 sections to S-300 and Buk M1 batteries.

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The other response is technological.

Putting on my 'old crow' cap, C-band ADA radars need to shift to using lower power wideband frequency hopping to push the peak power below the interference threshold of the satellites.

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The problem with that tech solution is higher radiated power is absolutely required for C-band radar anti-ballistic missile role.

This is why the operational combined arms solution will be used more often, but the tech solution still has to happen.

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The issue of radar interference allowing your opponents geolocate your emitters is as old as radar.

The Allies chose UK Mark III Identification Friend or Foe over the USN's Mark IV because the latter interfered with German radars. It was true when the decision was made.

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Unfortunately, this non-interference did not stay so for long.

When the RAF Bomber Command used its Mandrel jammers.

The Germans moved their Freya radar to higher frequencies that the Mark III IFF responded too.
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Per "British Intelligence in the Second World War" Volume 3, Part 1, the Luftwaffe exploited this radar interference such that it may have been the primary reason Bomber Command lost the Battle of Berlin during the Winter/spring of 1943-1944.

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R.V. Jones in MOST SECRET WAR put it this way (see text photo captures):

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Further on Jones wrote:

"...the Germans’ own (Enigma) reports 9 out of the 41 aircraft lost on 2nd/3rd December against Berlin had been shot down because of their use of I.F.F., 4 out of 24 lost on Leipzig on the following night and 6 out of 26 on Berlin on 16/17th December—
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and these may have been due to one plotting station alone."

Similar tracking of US planes and ships was happening during the Kamikaze campaign in the Pacific because Japanese aerial radars also addressed the Mark III IFF.

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Radar interference, as a tool to track enemy radars, is as old as radars.

But it's history lessons are seldom, if ever, taught. This is why 'Old Crows' say:

"It's what you think you know.
That isn't so.
Which kills you every time."

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More from @TrentTelenko

May 26
Ummm...no. @grok said 10K Truck Movements, not trucks.

A truck making two movements a day within 150 km of the Russian border for 30 days is 60 truck movements out of the 10K, or 0.6%.

@grok's estimate was based on mirror imaging Western Mechanized logistics.
Truck Intel🧵
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I did two further @grok analytical passes which reduced the truck movements, first to 3K to 8K truck movements:

"Revised estimate: Likely 3,000–8,000+ effective military/logistics truck movements per month on key southern routes (e.g., M-14 segments, Mariupol–Taganrog/T-0509, Berdiansk/Melitopol spurs), potentially higher in gross passages but far lower in productive throughput than Western equivalents due to systemic non-mechanized constraints."

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And then down to 2.5K to 7K truck movements, See:

"Likely 2,500–7,000 effective military/logistics truck movements per month on key southern routes (M-14 segments, Mariupol–Taganrog/T-0509, Berdiansk/Melitopol spurs), with gross passages potentially higher to offset massive inefficiencies—but productive throughput remains severely constrained by non-mechanized realities, supplements like rail/barge, and systemic intelligence blind spots."

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Read 10 tweets
May 25
This⬇️

>>In total, I have more than 100 mapped hits on russian logistical means.

...means a lot in terms of truck attrition.

100 killed out of a truck fleet of projected 2,500 on this route is 4% of the total.
1/
Ukrainian military intelligence estimated Kamaz made 15,000 trucks from Feb 2022 to early 2026.

Call that period 49 months, and that's a Truck production rate of 300 a month.

100 trucks killed in a couple of months is "normal wastage."


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A hundred Russian trucks, with a high proportions of fuel tankers and wreckers concentrated on one or two supply roads or a single road junction in a couple of weeks is a horse of a different color.

That is anti-access area denial (A2AD) on a stick.

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Read 5 tweets
May 23
This is another reminder that Peer-to-Peer drone warfare is all about attrition loss curves.

Ukraine's drones has made the roads of occupied southern Ukraine into an "anti-access area denial" (A2AD) kill zones for Russian trucks.
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Ukraine has achieved "Drone air superiority" over those roads rivaling WW2's Summer 1944 Allied air superiority over German occupied Normandy.

As a result, the Russian truck fleet is taking unsustainable attrition, particularly of its fuel tanker fleet.
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This AFU fuel interdiction campaign is causing panic:

"Fuel shortages are beginning in Sevastopol. This is the beginning of the consequences of the enemy's systematic strikes on oil refineries and tanker trucks along the land corridor to Crimea."
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Read 5 tweets
May 22
If true, it looks like Russian truck fuel logistics has completely fallen part on the Rostov-Dzhankoy highway.

This has a lot of strategic geo-political implications.

A2AD & Truck Logistics 🧵

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Given few/no trains, these are the Russian truck logistical facts of life:

1. At ~300 miles/480 km, tactical truck's only payload is fuel for a return trip**

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2. A 56 mile/90 km radius from a supply point allows three trips a day with refueling & mechanized logistics to load & unload a truck

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Read 19 tweets
May 21
Texas has seven unique advantages in terms of infrastructure, political culture, and resource geography that make it uniquely suited to be the next industrial heartland of the USA.

The seven industrial development advantages of Texas 🧵
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They are as follows:

1. About 94% of land in Texas is privately held. This vastly limits what the Federal, State and local governments can do to in terms of regulations and NIMBY games.

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2. Texas is mostly flat. Texas hill country is small beer compared to the Appalachian and Sierra Nevada mountain ranges. This compounds with #1 for industrial development.

3. Texas has a lot of water compared to the US west & sea access.

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Read 7 tweets
May 20
I am still trying to see the military relevance of the MV-75 Cheyenne II.

Especially when 3rd rate powers like Iran have Qaem-118” (Ghaem-118) / “Misagh-358” jet engine powered, loitering, surface to air munitions.

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The MV-75 Cheyenne II can't outrun a jet powered munition.

These things. ⬇️

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None of the standard US Suppression of Enemy air Defense (SEAD) radar sensor detection practices work on a “Misagh-358.”

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Read 5 tweets

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