Trent Telenko Profile picture
Feb 15, 2022 18 tweets 9 min read Read on X
The subject of this thread is "Commercial Open Source Military Radar Detection in Semi Real Time" courtesy of Bellingcat.

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bellingcat.com/resources/2022…
This is text from the beginning of the previous link:

The Radar Interference Tracker (RIT) is a new tool created by Ollie Ballinger that allows anyone to search for and potentially locate active military radar systems anywhere on earth.

Image- Sentinel-1 interference pattern
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It turns out that the Sentinal-1 commercial synthetic aperture radar (SAR) signal frequency is interfered with by C-band radars like those used by Patriot, S-300P FLAP LID & successors, 5N62 SQUARE PAIR, in fact a good number of Russian acquisition and engagement radars.
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Two Sentinal-1 SAR-sat passes and you get an interference pattern "X" that marks the spot of a C-band emitter.

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Also via Bellingcat:

Other military radars that operate on the same C-band frequency include naval radars such as the Japanese FCS-3, the Chinese Type-381 and the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system. All should be detectable when switched on and in view of Sentinel-1.
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The ability of non-state actors UAV's to play SEAD games by going after Patriot C-band emitters with this tool is also a threat not to be underestimated.
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There are two responses to this radar interference tool tracking, one operational and one technological.

The operational one needs WW2 style close range anti-drone defense of primary ADA like the 50 cal Maxon turret was shielding 40mm & 90 mm HAA from strafing fighters.

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Smart and/or drone combat experienced SAM operators have already are already doing this. Facebook posts show Ukrainians attaching DShKM and ZU-23-2 sections to S-300 and Buk M1 batteries.

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The other response is technological.

Putting on my 'old crow' cap, C-band ADA radars need to shift to using lower power wideband frequency hopping to push the peak power below the interference threshold of the satellites.

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The problem with that tech solution is higher radiated power is absolutely required for C-band radar anti-ballistic missile role.

This is why the operational combined arms solution will be used more often, but the tech solution still has to happen.

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The issue of radar interference allowing your opponents geolocate your emitters is as old as radar.

The Allies chose UK Mark III Identification Friend or Foe over the USN's Mark IV because the latter interfered with German radars. It was true when the decision was made.

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Unfortunately, this non-interference did not stay so for long.

When the RAF Bomber Command used its Mandrel jammers.

The Germans moved their Freya radar to higher frequencies that the Mark III IFF responded too.
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Per "British Intelligence in the Second World War" Volume 3, Part 1, the Luftwaffe exploited this radar interference such that it may have been the primary reason Bomber Command lost the Battle of Berlin during the Winter/spring of 1943-1944.

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R.V. Jones in MOST SECRET WAR put it this way (see text photo captures):

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Further on Jones wrote:

"...the Germans’ own (Enigma) reports 9 out of the 41 aircraft lost on 2nd/3rd December against Berlin had been shot down because of their use of I.F.F., 4 out of 24 lost on Leipzig on the following night and 6 out of 26 on Berlin on 16/17th December—
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and these may have been due to one plotting station alone."

Similar tracking of US planes and ships was happening during the Kamikaze campaign in the Pacific because Japanese aerial radars also addressed the Mark III IFF.

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Radar interference, as a tool to track enemy radars, is as old as radars.

But it's history lessons are seldom, if ever, taught. This is why 'Old Crows' say:

"It's what you think you know.
That isn't so.
Which kills you every time."

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More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 29
This passage:

"Lebanese security forces reportedly seized 1 truck last June carrying 5,000 explosive drones..."

...is the heart of why I say that the US Army & USMC ground troops will bleed heavily in their first real drone war.

Drone War🧵
Each of those 5,000 Hezbollah drones is individually far more lethal than a dumb 155mm shell, and a 5-ton truck can carry only 176 of them.

Each of those 5,000 drone can kill a truck carrying those 176 shells.

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You simply can't hide from drones like you can from a shell.

It will follow you inside hard cover with a thermobaric warhead.

There is no safe space on the battlefield unless you build one with fishing nets and drone jammers.
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Read 6 tweets
Apr 29
I'm tempted to say the difference between military flag ranks who are competent at 2026 peer to peer warfare, and those who are not, is the understanding and application of attritional loss curves to combat loss rates, electronic warfare and logistics.

Professional military education (PME)🧵
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The set of curves I had an AI produce for me above have been used for air warfare many times starting at the end of WW2, in the USSBS after WW2 and by many classic RAND airpower studies from the 1950's to 1980's.

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All post 9/11/2001 Western flag ranks are counter-insurgency (COIN) trained & experienced.

They have no gut feel at all to statistical attrition models at all.

These "COIN-head" flags may prove to be highly resistant to changing this. Which is required to deal with drones.
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Read 14 tweets
Apr 27
The effectiveness of drones is directly affected by the electronic warfare competence of the drone users.

The fact that the US Army defenestrated every EW practitioner in the 2000's and has compete "EW virgins" as flag rank leadership means it will fail with mass casualties in its first major drone war combat.
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A US Army serious about drone warfare would:

- Rebuild the full EW enterprise with organic division-level EW battalions and real exercises.

- Embed EW jamming into all combat branches (not MI-only).

- Shift to gun/autocannon dominant combined-arms counter-drone doctrine.

2/3
- Require FAA drone pilot + Ham radio licenses for flag ranks to build drone domain literacy.

None of these four reforms will happen until after US Army soldiers are deep in both defeat and buckets of blood.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Apr 26
It is extremely unlikely that this shooter acted alone given the following:

1. Reports are the guns were cached disassembled in a black bag, in a room outside the secured Secret Service perimeter.

2. The room the guns were cached in didn't have television surveillance.

🧵
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3. The shooter arrived at the hotel the day before the event.😯

4. TSA rules require firearms to be transported in checked baggage, unloaded, and locked in a hard-sided container, declared to the airline at check-in.

2/
5. Local DC law requires firearms in vehicles to be inaccessible from the passenger compartment and unloaded.

6. Washington DC is not a "safe passage" jurisdiction for non-residents without a license. The shooter lacked this license.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Apr 14
USN flag ranks & their staffers have been fighting the idea of distant economic blockade of China tooth an nail as a response to China invading Taiwan for 30 years.

They really don't want a recent precedent of a successful blockade...

1/3
...to prevent their Carrier fleet Pickett's charge into the South China Sea.

Specifically distant blockade as a strategy against China makes having/regaining 100 Cold War era

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...frigates and destroyer tenders supporting them on distant blockade stations outside the 2nd Island chain, "budget relevant" for a military strategy of conducting three years of blockade enforcement.

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Read 4 tweets
Apr 14
The high death rate of Russian troops due to a lack of casualty evacuation was highly visible in March-September 2022.

I've documented this consistently, repeatedly and at great technical depth.

Russia Strong "slopaganda" has buried it over and over.

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I was calling out two dead for every three Russian wounded in Sept 2022 as the more realistic Russian casualty ratio in Ukraine because it was taking more than 24 hours to get to the equivalent of a battalion aid station.

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I asked @grok to summarize my receipts on Russian casualty ratios since February 2022, which are clipped below:

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Read 4 tweets

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