Trent Telenko Profile picture
Feb 15, 2022 18 tweets 9 min read Read on X
The subject of this thread is "Commercial Open Source Military Radar Detection in Semi Real Time" courtesy of Bellingcat.

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bellingcat.com/resources/2022…
This is text from the beginning of the previous link:

The Radar Interference Tracker (RIT) is a new tool created by Ollie Ballinger that allows anyone to search for and potentially locate active military radar systems anywhere on earth.

Image- Sentinel-1 interference pattern
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It turns out that the Sentinal-1 commercial synthetic aperture radar (SAR) signal frequency is interfered with by C-band radars like those used by Patriot, S-300P FLAP LID & successors, 5N62 SQUARE PAIR, in fact a good number of Russian acquisition and engagement radars.
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Two Sentinal-1 SAR-sat passes and you get an interference pattern "X" that marks the spot of a C-band emitter.

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Also via Bellingcat:

Other military radars that operate on the same C-band frequency include naval radars such as the Japanese FCS-3, the Chinese Type-381 and the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system. All should be detectable when switched on and in view of Sentinel-1.
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The ability of non-state actors UAV's to play SEAD games by going after Patriot C-band emitters with this tool is also a threat not to be underestimated.
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There are two responses to this radar interference tool tracking, one operational and one technological.

The operational one needs WW2 style close range anti-drone defense of primary ADA like the 50 cal Maxon turret was shielding 40mm & 90 mm HAA from strafing fighters.

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Smart and/or drone combat experienced SAM operators have already are already doing this. Facebook posts show Ukrainians attaching DShKM and ZU-23-2 sections to S-300 and Buk M1 batteries.

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The other response is technological.

Putting on my 'old crow' cap, C-band ADA radars need to shift to using lower power wideband frequency hopping to push the peak power below the interference threshold of the satellites.

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The problem with that tech solution is higher radiated power is absolutely required for C-band radar anti-ballistic missile role.

This is why the operational combined arms solution will be used more often, but the tech solution still has to happen.

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The issue of radar interference allowing your opponents geolocate your emitters is as old as radar.

The Allies chose UK Mark III Identification Friend or Foe over the USN's Mark IV because the latter interfered with German radars. It was true when the decision was made.

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Unfortunately, this non-interference did not stay so for long.

When the RAF Bomber Command used its Mandrel jammers.

The Germans moved their Freya radar to higher frequencies that the Mark III IFF responded too.
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Per "British Intelligence in the Second World War" Volume 3, Part 1, the Luftwaffe exploited this radar interference such that it may have been the primary reason Bomber Command lost the Battle of Berlin during the Winter/spring of 1943-1944.

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R.V. Jones in MOST SECRET WAR put it this way (see text photo captures):

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Further on Jones wrote:

"...the Germans’ own (Enigma) reports 9 out of the 41 aircraft lost on 2nd/3rd December against Berlin had been shot down because of their use of I.F.F., 4 out of 24 lost on Leipzig on the following night and 6 out of 26 on Berlin on 16/17th December—
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and these may have been due to one plotting station alone."

Similar tracking of US planes and ships was happening during the Kamikaze campaign in the Pacific because Japanese aerial radars also addressed the Mark III IFF.

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Radar interference, as a tool to track enemy radars, is as old as radars.

But it's history lessons are seldom, if ever, taught. This is why 'Old Crows' say:

"It's what you think you know.
That isn't so.
Which kills you every time."

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jun 10
Saving Space Access From Kessler Syndrome

Elon Musk’s plan for XAI satellite data centers, and all use of space for any purpose, faces inevitable collapse until a solution emerges for the problem of Kessler Syndrome (see Wikipedia). 🧵

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This will occur when enough collisions of small orbital debris pieces from old dead satellites hits the steadily increasing number of new satellites until the whole thing spirals into mass collisions.

Kessler Syndrome computes that this will destroy all existing

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...communications, navigation, observation and research satellites in low/medium orbit, and prevent all further satellites launched, for 40+ years, until enough pieces fall out of orbit into the Earth’s atmosphere.

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Read 13 tweets
Jun 9
Do you remember all the 2023 US Navalist accounts o X that screamed at @johnkonrad and I about pointing out the containerized anti-ship OWA drone threat to the US fleet.

Welcome to 2026 Ukrainian anti-ship OWA drone threat, you US Navalist yo-yo's. ⬇️

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"Operation Spiderweb with Chinese characteristics" is coming for you all, and we have the receipts.

We need a whole lot of air defense guns everywhere to stop drones that you guys still refuse to fund.

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For fun and reference of guns versus missile air defense, this YouTube test scenario pits 100 Shahed-136 one-way attack drones against the historic US Navy Task Force 38.1 from 1944.


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Read 4 tweets
Jun 3
Just...no. The 8th AF fudged its accuracy numbers.

It excluded "gross error" bombing runs beyond 3,000 feet from the target. Which were above 10% of all 1944 bombing runs.

Below, the inner circle is what a 1944 1,000 foot (304m) CEP in WW2 looked like when dropped from 400(+) four engine heavy bombers.
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Using this document:

THE UNITED STATES STRATEGIC BOMBING SURVEY
Bombing Accuracy, USAAF Heavy and Medium Bombers in the ETO
MILITARY ANALYSIS DIVISION
First Edition 3 November 1945
Second Edition January 1947

You find both mission failures & gross errors were "excluded data"
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And that both increased altitude and the number of combat boxes involved made CEP worse.

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Read 12 tweets
Jun 3
There are sound photographic reasons I'm talking about Russia's domestic fuel tanker supply distribution chain breaking down.

Dead tanker trucks can't move fuel.

Plus additional tanker trucks diverted & moving from 🇷🇺 to 🇺🇦 can't deliver fuel domestically either.

Fuel🧵
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For additional photographic proof of 🇷🇺 tanker truck supply distribution breaking down, see here in Belgorod:


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And see here elsewhere in Crimea:



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Read 8 tweets
Jun 2
This manpower sweep problem is actually a lot worse for the Russians than Western military intelligence is capable of giving credit.

It takes a Russian labor gang about 3 hours to load 16 tons of wooden boxes w/o a convenient box car to truck line up. (below upper right)

🧵
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Because the Russian Army doesn't use pallets, forklifts, telehandlers nor D-rings anywhere in their supply chain to strap down pallet loads.

You need massive numbers of conscripts to load and unload from train cars to trucks & vice versa.

See⬇️
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This has a whole lot of knock on effects in how the non-mechanized Russian supply system works in the age of GMLRS & drones.

You see here a commercial to tactical truck swap of wooden boxes in the Russian Army operational/strategic depths.

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Read 8 tweets
Jun 2
This:

>>This is essentially a complete tactical bomber cell in a box, sized for a small mobile drone team operating at brigade level or below. It is not a strategic deep-strike weapon, and it is not pretending to be one.

...is "Federalized airpower."
Here are two key concepts for you --

1. Federalized Airpower - local ground unit as opposed to theater air commander asset

2. Kill Chains.

#1 has to do with every ground unit from platoon up owning a bit of airpower (a small UAV) outside central air command.
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#2 has to do with the ability of that UAV to call/deal lethal firepower for ground units w/o or w/little regard to superiors.

This drone kit is one of those subtle military technology developments that is in fact a game changer that brings those two ideas into reality.

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Read 4 tweets

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