Trent Telenko Profile picture
Feb 15, 2022 18 tweets 9 min read Read on X
The subject of this thread is "Commercial Open Source Military Radar Detection in Semi Real Time" courtesy of Bellingcat.

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bellingcat.com/resources/2022…
This is text from the beginning of the previous link:

The Radar Interference Tracker (RIT) is a new tool created by Ollie Ballinger that allows anyone to search for and potentially locate active military radar systems anywhere on earth.

Image- Sentinel-1 interference pattern
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It turns out that the Sentinal-1 commercial synthetic aperture radar (SAR) signal frequency is interfered with by C-band radars like those used by Patriot, S-300P FLAP LID & successors, 5N62 SQUARE PAIR, in fact a good number of Russian acquisition and engagement radars.
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Two Sentinal-1 SAR-sat passes and you get an interference pattern "X" that marks the spot of a C-band emitter.

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Also via Bellingcat:

Other military radars that operate on the same C-band frequency include naval radars such as the Japanese FCS-3, the Chinese Type-381 and the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system. All should be detectable when switched on and in view of Sentinel-1.
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The ability of non-state actors UAV's to play SEAD games by going after Patriot C-band emitters with this tool is also a threat not to be underestimated.
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There are two responses to this radar interference tool tracking, one operational and one technological.

The operational one needs WW2 style close range anti-drone defense of primary ADA like the 50 cal Maxon turret was shielding 40mm & 90 mm HAA from strafing fighters.

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Smart and/or drone combat experienced SAM operators have already are already doing this. Facebook posts show Ukrainians attaching DShKM and ZU-23-2 sections to S-300 and Buk M1 batteries.

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The other response is technological.

Putting on my 'old crow' cap, C-band ADA radars need to shift to using lower power wideband frequency hopping to push the peak power below the interference threshold of the satellites.

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The problem with that tech solution is higher radiated power is absolutely required for C-band radar anti-ballistic missile role.

This is why the operational combined arms solution will be used more often, but the tech solution still has to happen.

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The issue of radar interference allowing your opponents geolocate your emitters is as old as radar.

The Allies chose UK Mark III Identification Friend or Foe over the USN's Mark IV because the latter interfered with German radars. It was true when the decision was made.

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Unfortunately, this non-interference did not stay so for long.

When the RAF Bomber Command used its Mandrel jammers.

The Germans moved their Freya radar to higher frequencies that the Mark III IFF responded too.
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Per "British Intelligence in the Second World War" Volume 3, Part 1, the Luftwaffe exploited this radar interference such that it may have been the primary reason Bomber Command lost the Battle of Berlin during the Winter/spring of 1943-1944.

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R.V. Jones in MOST SECRET WAR put it this way (see text photo captures):

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Further on Jones wrote:

"...the Germans’ own (Enigma) reports 9 out of the 41 aircraft lost on 2nd/3rd December against Berlin had been shot down because of their use of I.F.F., 4 out of 24 lost on Leipzig on the following night and 6 out of 26 on Berlin on 16/17th December—
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and these may have been due to one plotting station alone."

Similar tracking of US planes and ships was happening during the Kamikaze campaign in the Pacific because Japanese aerial radars also addressed the Mark III IFF.

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Radar interference, as a tool to track enemy radars, is as old as radars.

But it's history lessons are seldom, if ever, taught. This is why 'Old Crows' say:

"It's what you think you know.
That isn't so.
Which kills you every time."

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More from @TrentTelenko

Feb 17
Drones are both a compliment and supplement all existing ground force combined arms weapons systems and do so at a lower cost.

For the last year to 18 months - and sources vary - three out of every four Ukrainian and Russian casualties are from drones.

Paradigm Shift 🧵

1/5
Artillery plus EVERY_OTHER_ weapons system on the Ukrainian battlefield does 1/4 of 2025-2026 drone casualties.

Such is the BLUF of the drone battlefield paradigm shift in terms of human blood.

2/5
This means the world has changed so radically that any US Army officer higher than Captain is negative value added on a drone battlefield because their professional military education is as obsolete 1930's US Horse cavalrymen Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures were in 1944.

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Read 6 tweets
Feb 17
The problem for an independent EU nuclear deterrence force is sheer numbers, the EU lack of them.

What the Putinists have proven is that Western deterrence assumptions about "acceptable losses" were naive mirrored thinking, attributing Western values to Russia.

1/
The assumption of credible "deterrent effect" has to be shifted into the loss band of annihilation of threat forces - anything less than that, as the Ukraine war proves, is an acceptable loss for the Putinists.

We are at over a million Russian casualties to date.

2/theguardian.com/world/2026/jan…
That means a 200 kiloton nuke in either St. Petersburg or Moscow, or dozens of tactical nukes into airfields & missile fields across Western Russia as an EU nuclear response to a Russian first strike are acceptable at a minimum.

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Read 7 tweets
Feb 15
It looks like my 4th Gen nukes posts here on X shook out data from US three letter agencies. Who belatedly realized that classifying physics was both self-defeating & stupid.

The bad news is the FYEO web site is now reporting a _NINTH_ 4th Gen. nuclear tech approach by China with metal nitrogen/nitrogen anion salt.

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Specifically, this new Chinese approach to 4th generation nukes that create fusion device without a HEU/PU fission trigger can be packaged as small as 100 to 200 grams and can fit into a group two size class drone.

This is worse than my worst-case expectations.

2/3
My worst-case 4th Generation nuclear scenario was based on explosively pumped flux compression generator fusion primaries with U-238 jackets in something sized to fit into an ATACMS warhead.

China's approach is 1/25th that mass/volume. 😱

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jan 24
I'm sorry, but this statistic:

>>Violent crime is falling, with homicides down ~21%. The largest annual drop on record.

...has been heavily polluted by improvements in trauma care, particularly hemostatic (blood clotting) bandages.

US Trauma care & FBI statistics🧵

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The statistical comparison in the FBI data from pre-1961 is invalid as the underlying medical systems have so changed as to utterly pollute the "murders per 100,000" data.

Violent crime data pre-1961 and post 1961 are apples to oranges comparisons.

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-Trauma care centers (1961),

-Standardized trauma procedures (1978),

-Adoption of military Korea/Vietnam medical emergency treatment & air transport procedures,

-Improved triage (1986)

-And (since 2011) widespread adoption and use of blood clotting bandages...

3/
Read 8 tweets
Jan 24
Chairman Xi suffers from the traditional dictator's trap of believing his own sh*t because he has made it too dangerous for his cronies and underlings to tell him the truth.

He has failed the "Dictator on the Wall Test."

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Thanks to that, Chairman Xi's Regime has pretty much no resilience in adversity because it's so kleptocratic and it's all about what the guy in charge can do for his next set of corrupt cronies today.

2/
This 1970's comment about the Shah of Iran is so historically on point in 2026 because it shows how Xi's regime is failing "The dictator on the wall test."

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Read 8 tweets
Jan 22
Greenland is badly needed by the USA to engage nuclear armed hypersonic glide vehicles and FOBS from China and Russia aimed at the continental USA.

So-called experts saying Greenland is "unnecessary" are "Cold War thinkers" focused on traditional ICBM threat geometries.
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They are not thinking in terms of the detection geometries required for lofted or depressed trajectory ICBM's, HGV, and/or FOBS.

For those threats, the further forward you can deploy radars and interceptors, the better for detection and intercept.

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When geometrically minded experts in Australia looked at PLARF depressed trajectory ICBM's, HGV, and FOBS threat set.

They ended up placing a TPY-2 radars on the Cocos Island & Christmas Island ("Greenland for Oz") to generate tracks for SM-3 & THAAD interceptors.
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Read 4 tweets

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