Were I a betting man … Suspect that any Russian first move will likely be their Spetsnaz / GRU groups engaging behind UKR lines esp an assassination or decapitation strike to throw UKR Govt (and thus NATO responses) into chaos. This ISR picture would be normal then … not
https://twitter.com/ameliairheart/status/1493675124087742467
Most western leaders are ex political hacks and decrepit - the strategic effect of the Russians taking out the Ukrainian leadership (while also invading Ukraine itself) would be immense. The Russians know this & ‘playing a home game’ would consider this a risk worth taking
The Tsar’s Okhrana operated dirty abroad. The Soviet plans for WW3 involved deep penetration (per Tukhachevsky and successors) and the use of assassination, sabotage, and chaos, behind their enemy’s lines. The Russian state has never (and would never) renounce these doctrines.
The Russians see War as a tool of statecraft (which it is) and that if you will the ends, you will the means. The Russian desire is for a strategic effect. The persistent Western refusal to understand the Russians on their own terms is why we are continually in this position.
The above applies also to Iran like Russia, which has from the Shahs to the Mullahs, played as hard when “playing away” when “playing at home”. This is not alway a bad thing cf the destruction of Daesh in Iraq and Syria 2014-2017 … but always worth noting
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