Were I a betting man … Suspect that any Russian first move will likely be their Spetsnaz / GRU groups engaging behind UKR lines esp an assassination or decapitation strike to throw UKR Govt (and thus NATO responses) into chaos. This ISR picture would be normal then … not
Most western leaders are ex political hacks and decrepit - the strategic effect of the Russians taking out the Ukrainian leadership (while also invading Ukraine itself) would be immense. The Russians know this & ‘playing a home game’ would consider this a risk worth taking
The Tsar’s Okhrana operated dirty abroad. The Soviet plans for WW3 involved deep penetration (per Tukhachevsky and successors) and the use of assassination, sabotage, and chaos, behind their enemy’s lines. The Russian state has never (and would never) renounce these doctrines.
The Russians see War as a tool of statecraft (which it is) and that if you will the ends, you will the means. The Russian desire is for a strategic effect. The persistent Western refusal to understand the Russians on their own terms is why we are continually in this position.
The above applies also to Iran like Russia, which has from the Shahs to the Mullahs, played as hard when “playing away” when “playing at home”. This is not alway a bad thing cf the destruction of Daesh in Iraq and Syria 2014-2017 … but always worth noting

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More from @GrayConnolly

Feb 15
Apparently, PJ O’Rourke has passed on. A very funny writer in his early work who would make sacred cows into hamburgers. Sadly his interesting youthful rebellion saw him become successively Neocon and then scold, becoming the Boomer he had deplored. A lesson for all. May he RIP.
Even if they have the wrong PJ O'Rourke, that is my judgment on the man's work. RIP or otherwise to his family.
PJ O’Rourke’s best work is debatable but his “Ferrari refutes the decline of the West” genre was hilarious …somehow this guy went from lampooning people like Hillary to supporting Hillary when Trump in all his insanely funny poasting ways was the next stage of PJ’s politics
Read 5 tweets
Feb 14
Am supporting Cincinnati as it is named for one of the greatest Romans, as I explained a fortnight ago. #SPQR #SuperBowl
Hopefully the coach of Cincinnati, like Fabius Maximus, brought the team in at half time, as after Cannae, and gave clear orders for attritional warfare against a Los Angeles that has all of the pagan debauchery of Carthage and none of its redeeming features
#SPQR #SuperBowl
The Cincinnati hit back, like Scipio at Zama, against this squalid and immoral Los Angeles team .... Realistically, this Los Angeles coach looks like the sort of fellow who would be a back up dancer in the half time show.
#SPQR #SuperBowl
Read 8 tweets
Feb 13
Zali … funded by Fossil Fuels … ImageImage
Yes imagine taking fossil fuel money
Imagine taking fossil fuel cash… Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 30
Hopefully the Cincinnati can be true to their namesake, grit their way to a deserved win, save Rome, and then return to the plow …
I am pro Bengal as they seem to be underdogs/underbengals and their city is named for the greatest Roman & his legacy of a military society that finally goes home after a war
Good morning to #SPQR Twitter btw … “Salve”
Read 12 tweets
Jan 24
There is a whole generation whose knowledge of Gregorian chant results from Enigma's "Sadeness" in the early 1990s ....
"You see, kids, before the codification of police powers and the Evidence Act, criminal law was basically what you see in the Beastie Boys' 'Sabotage' video.

Are there any questions before we finish the class?"
The early 1990s had some amazing music and I am not sure anyone foresaw Grunge etc being replaced by the saccharine immorality and trashiness of the later 1990s … It really did presage the end of a civilisational epoch
Read 4 tweets
Jan 23
American & European liberalism (right & left variants) - notwithstanding 20 years of disastrous inability to bring rainbow flags to the Pashtu etc - have now determined that ex Soviet klepto states (that few of them could find on a map) are the next frontier for 'freedom'....
There is a realistic case for involving yourself in various parts of the world - food, energy, balance of power, etc - but there is no really strong moral case, as of now. Taiwan would possiblt be an exception but Taiwan also matters & hard to see Ukraine similarly right now.
Hopefully in his now retirement, Admiral Schonbach writes more ... it will be unpopular in Europe but will find a very receptive audience "east of Suez" as the British would say.
Read 4 tweets

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