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Ray Dalio

@RayDalio

Feb 15

That was certainly the case in the 1990–2008 period. (1/4)

Throughout the long-term debt cycle, from 1945 until 2008, whenever the Federal Reserve wanted the economy to pick up it would lower interest rates and make money and credit more available, which would increase stock and bond prices and increase demand. (2/4)

That was how it was done until 2008—i.e., interest rates were cut, and debts were increased faster than incomes to create unsustainable bubbles. That changed when the bubble burst in 2008 and interest rates hit 0 percent for the first time since the Great Depression. (3/4)

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Ray Dalio

@RayDalio

Feb 15

Escalating means saying you don’t believe you can successfully handle a situation and that you are passing the Responsible Party job to someone else. (1/5)

The person you are escalating to—the person to whom you report—can then decide whether to coach you through it, take control themselves, have someone else handle it, or do something else. (2/5)

It’s critical that escalation not be seen as a failure but as a responsibility. All Responsible Parties will eventually face tests that they don’t know whether they can handle; (3/5)

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Ray Dalio

@RayDalio

Feb 9

The external conflict gauge shown here measures the levels of economic, political/cultural, and military conflict between pairs of major countries. (1/4)

As shown, the greatest conflict is between the US and China, the two greatest powers in the world that have comparable amounts of power—more than enough to make a war between them the most devastating in history. (2/4)

The amount of this conflict is 1 standard deviation above normal, which is pretty severe in relation to past conflicts between countries. (3/4)

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Ray Dalio

@RayDalio

Feb 8

@TonyRobbins

I just read Life Force by @TonyRobbins and urge you to read it if you're interested in the science of living longer. (1/6)

I have found that there aren't many subjects that people care more about, that have shown greater scientific progress, and that most people are more ignorant about than longevity. (2/6)

That’s because up until now, too much information has been scattered all over the place to review and digest. In creating Life Force, Tony, who has devoted his life to making people healthy in mind and body, (3/6)

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Ray Dalio

@RayDalio

Feb 3

That is because all investments are exchanges of lump-sum payments today for future payments. (1/7)

What these future cash payments will be is determined by growth and inflation, what risk investors are willing to take in investing in them as compared to having cash in hand is the risk premium, (2/7)

and what they are worth today, which is called their “present value,” is determined by the discount rate. (3/7)

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Ray Dalio

@RayDalio

Feb 2

As of this writing there are varying amounts of conflict going on within different countries, as shown in this chart. (1/5)

Internal conflict is especially high in the United States, which appears to be in Stage 5 of the cycle (when there are bad financial conditions and intense conflict), while China appears to be in Stage 3 (when there is peace and prosperity). (2/5)

Changes to this measure can happen quickly—e.g., the changes that produced the Arab Spring, the conflicts in Hong Kong, internal wars in Syria and Afghanistan, recent big protests in Peru and Chile, etc.—leading to revolutionary changes in their internal orders. (3/5)

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