1.STATE OF GLOBAL MARKETS: Have been mentioning in various CH/Spaces Discussions that Global Equity Markets are structurally weak. The boost to Equities by the CBs in Mar 2020 seems to be fizzling out. Let's see how the picture looks one by one
2. NIFTY : Same levels were seen in early Sep '21
3. BANK NIFTY : Even in February 2021 we saw these levels.
4. DJIA : 10th May 2021.
5. S&P 500 : August 2021.
6. NASDAQ(seems weakest of the 3) February 2021.
7. DAX : April 2021
8. CAC : Aug 2021.
9.NIKKEI : January 2021.
10. HANG SENG ( Weakest among Major Markets) . Nov 2020.
11. CHINA : July 2020.
12. Australia : May 2021.
13. KOSPI : Dec. 2020.
14, Russia : May 2021.
15. UK has bucked the trend. Jan. 2022
16. Singapore is the most bullish Equity Market among major markets in the World. Today its made a 4 year high
Most Analysts (even the recent Bull Converts) seem to be throwing in the Towel .
This is where Basic Elliot Wave Analysis comes to the fore.
IF we just consider ONLY the Intermediate Waves & just 3 of them then this is how the Waves unfold.
Elliot Prechter, the Godfather of EW Theory explains it best.
The 1st Wave ( Uptrend) starts when there are signs of Recession; Panic : Limited War . This is the REBOUND from "Undervalued" Levels.
Similar to what we noticed in End-March 2026
The 2nd Wave (Downtrend) ends when the Fundamental Conditions are often as bad as or worse than those at the previous Bottom, underlying trend considered down. Does not carry to a New Low.
Sounds Familiar ???
The 3rd Wave ( Strong Uptrend) is the MOST Powerful Wave has Strength , Breadth & the Best Fundamentals.( Coming soon ??)
Why have I suddenly become Uber Bullish on Gold???. All these headlines are from the last couple of days
2. 🇮🇳 India is reshaping its reserve strategy. In just 2 months, US Treasury holdings are cut from ~$242B to ~$227B, while gold stockpile is boosted by ~39 tonnes, taking RBI’s reserves past 850 tonnes worth ~$65B. #Gold now makes up nearly 8% of total reserves : this shift is big, from paper to Real Assets !
(Source: ET)
1. The ONLY thing we have to fear is FEAR MONGERING itself.
2. US Actions NOW :
3. US FUTURE ACTIONS: Has signalled that,for now, its military action is over& has no interest in bringing down the Iranian Government. It may encourage Iran to limit its response, perhaps attacking US targets in ways that do not lead to high casualties using proxies: Hezbollah
QUIT INDIA vs QUIET on INDIA : What were the "alleged" reasons as to why US Investors "ran away" as per the Pundits ???. :
1. US 10Y Treasury Yield: Yields touched 5 % & were expected to go to 6 % which meant a fantastic Risk Free rate of return. What is really happening now ???
2. $ strengthening against the Rupee : DXY @ 110 & was expected to move to 115-120, thereby crushing Rupee to 95 to 100. What is really happening now ?
3. OIL : Oil was supposed to touch 3 figures, thereby making Indian Markets unattractive due to perceived rise in Inflation. What is really happening now ??
1. WORSHIPPING FALSE GODS : Many a time I used to wonder why India has never realised it's full potential. A wizened Old Broker on the MSE gave me the answer : Because India is always lets down by it's Intellectuals, because they are not really Intelligent.🙃🙃🙃
2. Consider the legacy of DAS : Everyone, especially the Intellectuals hail him as a Saviour of India during COVID times. How different were RBI's policies vis a vis other Global Central Bankers. An objective analysis here ( Only for Serious Market/Economy watchers). 👇👇
3. Liquidity was infused by Global CBs during the start of COVID hence Markets recovered & to that extent the Global Economy did. Including India😋😋😋