1. GOLDEN AGE IS UNDERWAY ????

Why have I suddenly become Uber Bullish on Gold???. All these headlines are from the last couple of days 2. 🇮🇳 India is reshaping its reserve strategy. In just 2 months, US Treasury holdings are cut from ~$242B to ~$227B, while gold stockpile is boosted by ~39 tonnes, taking RBI’s reserves past 850 tonnes worth ~$65B. #Gold now makes up nearly 8% of total reserves : this shift is big, from paper to Real Assets !
(Source: ET)

1. The ONLY thing we have to fear is FEAR MONGERING itself. 2. US Actions NOW :

QUIT INDIA vs QUIET on INDIA : What were the "alleged" reasons as to why US Investors "ran away" as per the Pundits ???. :

1. US 10Y Treasury Yield: Yields touched 5 % & were expected to go to 6 % which meant a fantastic Risk Free rate of return. What is really happening now ??? 2. $ strengthening against the Rupee : DXY @ 110 & was expected to move to 115-120, thereby crushing Rupee to 95 to 100. What is really happening now ?

1. WORSHIPPING FALSE GODS : Many a time I used to wonder why India has never realised it's full potential. A wizened Old Broker on the MSE gave me the answer : Because India is always lets down by it's Intellectuals, because they are not really Intelligent.🙃🙃🙃 2. Consider the legacy of DAS : Everyone, especially the Intellectuals hail him as a Saviour of India during COVID times. How different were RBI's policies vis a vis other Global Central Bankers. An objective analysis here ( Only for Serious Market/Economy watchers). 👇👇

1. Is this the BIGGEST FALL in the Broader Market ?????. Almost everyone is convinced or trying to convince others that the latest fall is the BIGGEST FALL since COVID. There is PANIC everywhere because of this. So called Veteran Experts are mocking the new Investors/Traders that this is the 1st time such a fall has been witnessed by the newbies.The charts present a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT PICTURE as of date. Please don't fall for narratives or Agendas. Study History. See what happened after a major fall in the past. It is quite possible IF the panic continues then there is a possibility that This fall may indeed become a self fulfilling prophecy & turn into the Biggest Fall. But it has not happened yet. AND THAT IS A FACT. @_prashantnair @latha_venkatesh @LarissaFernand @Iamsamirarora @Nigel__DSouza @SurabhiUpadhyay @wealth_verse @AlgoBoffin @nooreshtech @sahneydeepak @deepakmohoni @blitzkreigm 2. CNX 500

1. That "TURBULENT WEEK" of Indian Economic History : 28th August 2013 - 5th September 2013. Everything which had to go wrong was doing so. Rupee had crashed by 29 % in just 3 months . 2. Global Analysts houses were smelling blood as far as India was concerned. We were bracketed under the Fragile 5. cnbc.com/2013/09/02/ind…

1. REVISITING : Deepavali - Pongal Pattern : This pattern works 80 % of the time across a cross section of stocks/Nifty as per my analysis over 25 years. This time the period was extremely volatile & there was a general fear that the Markets would crash to around 21K - 22K since there was record FII selling. Let's analyse how our specifically built portfolio of 10 stocks performed in comparison with Nifty 2. Two out of 10 stocks gave an excellent return ( Apollo Micro @ 32 % & Biocon @ 25 %) . Two gave double digit negative returns ( Bajaj Auto @ 12.5 % & Bandhan @ 17 % ).

1. ONE DAY WONDERS : Today's Volatility must have unnerved many a trader. This kind of huge volatility in a day or spread over a couple of days is very typical of DECEMBER. Usually there is no "news" accompanying such Volatility though Analysts will try to link with some or other event. "Curve Fitting" is what it is called. Here are some of the December Wonders over the years. 2. 20th December 2023

1. COINCIDENCE ?? .NIFTY(2024) : Moves since June 3rd. Notice that there was a nearly 9 % fall which was quickly bought into and we made a new ATH by 'shooting' up from the June 4th low by 11 %. In the process the Nifty has been trading in a narrow band with RED CANDLES which indicates that the OPENING is HIGHER than the CLOSING which means the Bulls are successful in opening with a GAP UP but unable to press home the advantage . WHERE HAVE WE SEEN THIS BEFORE, IF AT ALL ???? 2. NIFTY (2008). From it's ATH ,Nifty fell 8.2 % over 4 trading days in 3rd week of December. Then it bounced back sharply by 12 % and in the process stagnated in a narrow band for 8 trading days with a few Indecisive Candles. Please don't ask me what happened next. I am NOT predicting anything but just answering a Question someone asked whether I had seen a similar pattern somewhere in the past. Past performance is NOT an Indicator of what is likely to happen in the Future.

1. The curious case of TATA CHEMICALS share. Last week it was struggling at Rs. 933. Lo & behold it jumped by 45 % to Rs. 1349 just in 6 trading sessions. The rise was attributed to a Research report released by Spark Capital, which was widely disseminated in the Media including @CNBCTV18Live @CNBCTV18News @CNBC_Awaaz & other TV channels indicating that the reason for this stupendous rise was due to it benefitting by the imminent listing of TATA SONS IPO. A few questions arise. 2. Before that a brief Background : Tata Chemicals share has been very sluggish for several quarters despite it being the 3rd largest Soda Ash producer globally, with over 2/3rd of its capacity being natural soda ash translating into cost-effective production. TCL is also the 6th largest producer of sodium bicarbonate in the world, and one of the leading agri-services and crop-protection chemical companies in India (through Rallis India Limited). Source: Screener.

1.Precious Metals & Other Commodities: Will we get a durable Commodities Rally when Global Economy is not doing great especially in the Industrial Sector?. Check out Precious Metals first. Here is GOLD trading at ATHs & no one seems to be noticing it. Fundamentally, Sovereigns are hoarding Gold since 2022( Highest annual buying since 1951,yes 1951). Technically it has formed an Inverse H&S in the Long term & a Cup & Handle Pattern on the very Long term pattern. Do we still want to ignore ? 2. SILVER : It is an "erratic" sibling of Gold. Follows it & many a time, overshoots it in terms of Magnitude. Observe it's behaviour b/w March 2023 & April'23. Just in a month, it shot up from $19 to $ 26(a mind boggling gain of 37%😳. Accumulation pattern seen through a Inverse H& multiple Shoulder Pattern. About to break out.

HNGSNGBEES: This ETF tracks Hang Seng Index. Right now Hangseng is the MOST HATED INDEX in the World. All the Bulls have given up. The Index P/E is around 8. If there was a good contrarian bet in this market, then my analysis suggests that this is it. DISCLOSURE : LARGEST COMPONENT OF OUR PORTFOLIO . Bought around Rs.230 levels. Hoping for a 25 % CAGR over next 3 years. 2. SBI ( Rs.712 ) : This is NOT for day trading. It is a portfolio scrip. This is likely to be one of the Best performers going ahead for the next 12 -18 months. Disclosure. Bought today @ 700.

1. 2024: Positioning our Family Office Portfolio based on what we think may happen. In early 2023, based on this same thinking, this is how we positioned ourselves. For instance we thought this is how the Sectors would perform in 2023 👇👇 2. What we got right : 1) Sectors when no one was willing to believe that PSUs/PSEs would shine. 2. A very Good Budget 3. A Bull Market through the year. 4. Range of Oil 5. India shining vs Bharat not so much 6. Movement of Asset Classes. 7. Bond Market Volatility. This is what we thought would happen to Asset Classes in 2023

1. Is India the Hottest Market in the World?. Market commentators are attributing the sharp rise of Indian Markets since end October to Political Stability;Macroeconomics; India Growth Story; Maturing of Retail segment through SIPs, etc.But are we alone & the "Hottest" ? 2. Among the Major Indices: surprise surprise it is NASDAQ @ Number 1 with a 18 % growth since end October😍

1. OVERSTAYING: Many moons ago the Markets were moving ferociously week after week. Euphoria all round. It was on a Sunday in December, we Investors had all gathered @ The Boat Club in Chennai awaiting the verdict of a TA who was working for RJ. The room was jam packed.😎 2. The TA laid out his charts & gave logical explanation as to Markets being too high(83 %)& hence one should get out of the Market. Made sense to most of us since we had enjoyed the fruits of a 6 month Bull Run & if the TA who advises RJ was saying so, then we better believe.🤨

1. When & How do Bull Markets end? A Veteran Investor asked me: I find quite a few similarities in the way market performed during tech boom & now. One difference being that this is relatively broad based. Valuations had very little role then & it more or less looks the same now 2."Can you from your experience tell me how exactly the meltdown happened finally? What triggered the collapse and how long the carnage lasted?"

1. DECEMBERS are consistently MOST VOLATILE MONTHS in the recent past, whether Bullish or Bearish years. I always tread extra carefully,either Long or Short, during this month. There are really NO plausible reasons as to why Markets swing so much,but am prepared this December too 2. December 2022 : Just a short wake up call for the reckless Bulls. Nifty & BN made ATHs & topped out, maybe some insiders knew Adani imbroglio was in the offing.

1. US: Is the Presidential Election Year always BULLISH? What does the past tell us? S&P 500's behaviour in the preceding 12 months. Analysis of Elections since 2000. SP increased by 6 %.In the interim Covid brought the Index down by 35 % & CBs mega QE pushed up all Asset prices. 2. 2015-16: Obama's 2nd term was ending. Markets were coming off one of the worst years since GFC due to Chain. Bottomed out in Feb'16 at a 14 % drawdown & started a rally. Overall it was a 'Nothing" year.

1. ELECTIONS & MARKETS: Huge chatter on how Markets behave in an Election Year & consensus seems to be that they are BULLISH going into an Election Year especially 6 months before. Now that 6 months are left for the Lok Sabha Elections let us see what we can expect. 2. 1991 : Political uncertainty all round. A prospective PM assassinated during campaign. Yet the Sensex went up 22 % leading to formation of a Minority Government of PV Narasimha Rao

1.Fundamental Analysis(FA);Technical Analysis(TA)or Interdependent Analysis(IA)?OLD MARKET SAYING : "If you torture the date long enough, it will confess to anything" This is a truism applicable to all kinds of Traders/Investors, be it Fundamental or Technical 2.Had the privilege of Interviewing 2 stalwarts on the opposite sides of the spectrum: The 1st @WilliamGreen72 who has interviewed the World's greatest investment mind from Sir John Templeton to Charlie Munger, Jack Bogle to Ed Thorp to Howard Marks in his wonderful Book

1. OIL on the BOIL: The Saga in 3 Parts: 2008 : OIL was in a BUBBLE It was defying Economic Fundamentals. Remember Global Equity Markets were on a downward drift right from late 2007. Hence the sharp fall after a sharp rise . 2. 2022: Huge shorts built from 75 $-125 $ through CEs.Had pointed out when it was rising in early Jan'22 in many of my CH/SPACES. We did not know then that Russia will attract Ukraine, but obviously some one knew. News created a short squeeze & then an orderly decline