SAINIK Profile picture
3 decades in the markets. Knocked Down many times, but not yet Knocked Out. God's Grace.
SAINIK Profile picture PRADEEP MUKIM Profile picture 2 added to My Authors
7 Dec
1.Suckers Rally: Every Bull Market when it ends gives one more chance for exit & vicariously sucks in the uninitiated. Here is how it usually plays out
2. We have always had these Suckers Rallies (Bull Traps) since Dot com era. Here it is of 2000.
3. In 2004, we had several Bull Traps.
Read 7 tweets
5 Dec
1. In the CH discussions today which had a participation of more than 350 members, the following points emerged specific to markets next week: BN looks distinctly weak since its trading below the last major high of Feb16th (37700) while Nifty is still 10% above Feb 16th level.
2.Mkts are expected to gap down. Watch the 1st hour low & if it breaks then go with the trend similarly if 1st hour high gets broken go with a long bias. If however mkt gaps up watch the 1st hour low & high & trade accordingly .
3. Since there has been a net sell figure by FIIs of more than 1.23 lakh crores since April, it looks a uphill task for a new high to be made anytime soon. On the contrary, lower lows seems the path of least resistance.
Read 6 tweets
5 Dec
1. "What Running taught me about Stock Market Investing" Excerpts from today's CH discussion. 10 points where running can help in Investing.
2.(i) No"right" age to start. Anyone can Run/nvest at any age.(ii) Run/Invest at your own pace(iii)Never do only Running/Equity Investing ; Do Cross Training other than Running/Diversification into other asset classes; (iv)Don't try too many techniques both in Running & Investing
3.( v.) Learn from other Runners/Investors esp from their mistakes. Failures teach us more than Success.;(vi.) Do systematic pacing ( Every 2k you have hydration stations so should your SIP be at regular intervals)
Read 7 tweets
25 Nov
1. @Raminations GRV: The one & only. In 1984 a few of my friends & I was travelling in the crowded Mini-Bus in Kolkatta. Jampacked, no place to stand, but noticed a couple of hefty gentleman occupying a seat & not allowing anyone space. I remarked this to my friend
2 We were conversing in Kannada. After a few minutes one of the gentleman was curious to know where we were from & what language we were speaking. I mentioned it as Kannada. His eyes immediately lit up " Oh, you are from Bangalore, city of Bishbanaath, What a great player,Genius"
3. He & his friend immediately stood up & offered their seats to us & reminisced GRV's exploits @ The Eden Gardens , how he belted Clive Lloyd's team in 1974-75 to get to a magnificent Century. They even described stroke by stroke his innings. Remarkable indeed.
Read 5 tweets
18 Nov
1. ALIBABA Aur CHAALIS taka ( 40 % ) or "Maunam Sammathi Lakshanam ": Today is going to be a watershed day in India's stock Market history for more ways than one.
2. At the Borders, China said "Open Sesame ", the gates opened & they got away by building a "Smart Village". In the Capital Markets too, China uttered "Open Sesame" & will get away with the money through a con game played on the "Dumb Village"
3. Sadly, the Services, did not stop the Building of the Village at the Borders & the Regulators here aided the looting of the Village on the Capital Markets,
reminding us of the saying : Maunam Sammathi Lakshanam ( Silence is indication of Acceptance)
Read 6 tweets
17 Nov
1.Does this show chip shortage is in the rear view mirror? . You be the Judge .A few charts for reference. NASDAQ Auto Parts Index. Important to see how they reacted after the " Research report" of Morgan Stanley
2. Biggest Auto Mfr in US : GM
3. Biggest Auto Mfr in Europe : VW.
Read 7 tweets
8 Nov
1. CRYPTOMANIA : Excerpts from the CH discussion on 7th Nov Sunday. Covered history, different facets & finally my opinion.@VohiCapital
2. Bitcoin started in 2008 as a counter to "Fiat" currencies. " No owner, No Authority, Owned by the Crowd ". Really took off in 2010 when the 'Occupy Wall Street" movement was in full swing
3. The spectacular rise has paralleled the "easy money" policies by the CBs. $ 100 invested in 2010 is worth $ 80 MILLION today. BITCOIN is getting scarcity premium since only 21 million coins can be mined in totality.
Read 11 tweets
4 Nov
1. How excesses can build up in a short time & the after effects. NIKKEI :
3. CAC ( France )
Read 6 tweets
28 Oct
@_prashantnair @dugalira 1. Summary of the CH session on 27/10/2021. " Mega IPOs & Market Tops". Examples of 5 Mega IPOs since '94. Chicken & Egg situation. Did the Mega IPOs come at the TOP or a Roaring Bull Market create the condition for Mega IPOs ?. 🤔
2. 1994: MSGF : Planned 300 cr. Raised 1000 cr. Closed ended Fund; Grey Mkt Premium : 500%. Black Mkt for Application Forms. Some applied by Xeroxing the Original App. Forms😷. NAV always below par thro' the entire period of 15 years.😳Sensex dropped by 15 % in the next 4 months
3. 2006.: Rel. Petro : Rs. 8100 cr. Largest till then. Oversubscribed 51 times. Despite SEBI restrictions on P-Notes, the market was bullish till it got listed on 11th May 2006. Nifty fell 30 % over the subsequent 30 days.
Read 9 tweets
26 Oct
1.Everyone is disturbed by the plethora of Crypto ads which are on during the T-20 games. The Celebrities who are endorsing Cryptos seem blissfully unaware of the illegality of their actions. Time has come to remind them that they are not above the Law. @dugalira @kaul_vivek
2."All cyber activities or online gambling in India are regulated under the IT Act 2000. The Act prohibits online gambling activities & prescribes a punishment for persons indulging in such activities, would be fined Rs. 100,000 or would receive imprisonment of up to 5 years"
3.Why not implement the provisions of the Law on the Celebrities and show them the consequences of their actions since many naïve people may get trapped based on the message of the medium?. It is likely to have an immediate effect & the ads would stop. No?@RBI @SEBI_India
Read 4 tweets
21 Oct
1. NIFTY FIFTY : Excerpted from an article by Stewart Investors. There was a category called 'Nifty Fifty" in the US too in the 60's & 70's.
The Nifty Fifty was a group of 50 stocks identified by market commentators, although it was never an official benchmark index.
2.The companies shared similar characteristics: high quality franchises benefitting from surging economic growth and strong balance sheets. Delivering healthy profits and good returns for investors year after year, they came to trade on very high valuations.
3. It was said by many investors at the time that Nifty Fifty stocks should be bought and never sold. By the early 1970s they had become the darlings of many institutional investors and staples of their portfolios.
Read 13 tweets
19 Oct
1. Momentum Investing: @deepakshenoy. I had Dinner with Deepak on 24th July & for more than 3 hours discussed anything & everything on the markets. Raised the issue of Small Case portfolios being negatively affected due to SEBI margining starting from Sep & affecting liquidity.
2. He was cool & collected as usual & said he would be able to manage the volatility since he has done that in the past & would get concerned only if the Small Cap Index starts trading down 10%+. Come August my fears seemed to be coming true (down 8 %),however Deepak held on.
3. The Aug. fall seemed to be an aberration. Soon after, the market took off & has gone up by nearly 10 % as of today over Jul 23rd. Kudos to him for being methodical in his approach. Was surprised that he was receiving "gyan" on his momentum approach.
Read 5 tweets
11 Oct
1.Interesting to note that D-Mart is making new highs on a day its rival is planning to open 7-11 stores in a BIG WAY. That's the "insanity" of a Bull Market
2. Interesting to note a company which uses Coal as a RM going up when there are reports of huge Coal shortage. That's the "insanity" of a Bull Market
3. Interesting to note an Index which is very interest rate sensitive making an ATH when the 10 y yield reaches a 6 month high. That's the "insanity" of a Bull Market.
Read 8 tweets
10 Oct
1. Will Air-India be an" Elephant in the Room" or a "White Elephant" for Tatas ? Some thoughts .
2.There has been almost universal approval of the Govt's decision to hive off Air-India. For the Govt it is like a Stop-Loss moment. The tax-payer benefits the most since he no longer will subsidise a losing proposition. The Govt. may actually benefit more than what appears.
3.While on the face of it Govt. is taking 46 K Cr. debt on its books, but it has got 3K Cr. Cash, will retain Real Estate & Sundry Assets. including the vast Art Collection, which insiders peg the value at more than Rs.5 K Cr. The RE can be packaged & monetised. Win-Win situation
Read 13 tweets
4 Oct
1. A brief summary of discussions on CH on 3/10/2021 "Will Oct spring a surprise - Lessons from History ". “October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. Others are July, Jan, Sept, Apr, Nov, May, March, June, Dec, August & Feb.”
― Mark Twain,
2. Oct has had the biggest fall (22 %) & the biggest rise (16 %) in a study of S&P 500 since 1964. Oct'29 & '87 are well known. In India too, Oct '94,'98,'08 are known for the downside while '07 rallied. In summary, Oct is a very "dangerous" month due to "mindless" volatility.
3.This time Oct is likely to witness the same kind of mindless volatility due to extended valuations; geo politics; RBI policy; Fed mischief, Inflationary trends, results season, China shenanigans etc .
Read 16 tweets
1 Oct
1." LOOKING BACK, LOOKING AHEAD" or as @CNBCTV18Live would say: "Quarter se Quarter Thak".Kudos to that copywriter who devised this phrase QSQT.{ As an Ad professional who cut his teeth in Ogilvy Advertising for me this would have been a dream line}👍 Some thoughts on Markets.
2. At the beginning of the last Quarter had charted out mentally that September would most likely be the "peak" month, did not speculate on what would be the Level, though must admit that, the levels did surprise me.
3. While the Indices have come down significantly from the highs of September we still don't know whether they were the "Peaks". Nevertheless the moves indicate that any rallies from here are on, are likely to be sold since "something" has changed.
Read 9 tweets
29 Sep
1."The Train has left the station" aka "Do the Advisors have Skin in the Game" ?.
2. Huge Interest in the Market & large number of market Analysts/Strategists expectedly giving "gyan" on Indices/Markets & collecting huge fees through Webinars/TV Appearances sucking in the naïve retail folks. Recent volatile moves have made these guys go on to overdrive .
3. Moving Targets are being given on Indices with most of them blithely asking followers to sell ONLY Below xyz levels while looking forward to higher & higher targets ignoring ground realities. Recency bias at peak since they have been successful in the past.
Read 9 tweets
29 Sep
Short term UGLY ( one week). : Hind Petro ( 289) SL 286; Target 299. Disc: Skin in the game.
Pushing my SL to cost
Booked half @ 296 , increased SL to 292. Target upped to 305.
Read 4 tweets
26 Sep
1. UGLY DUCKLINGS vs DIRTY DOZEN. Recently ( July 23rd) had devised a hypothetical portfolio of stocks which were popular at one time, but were being shunned by the markets at that point of time. Called them as "Ugly Ducklings". 15 in number.
2. Most of them had good fundamentals ; however where there was a sharp deterioration in fundamentals, it was visible in the exaggerated decline in their prices eg Yes Bank & IDEA.
3. Typical of any powerful Bull Market, this portfolio also has performed well, however the point to note is, that this portfolio was designed to withstand the ensuing Bear Market, whenever it comes. (My definition of a Bear Market is: 25 -30 % drop in Nifty from the TOP).
Read 11 tweets
22 Sep
1. Different Scenarios & Conclusions. A longish thread. Characteristics of Inflation & Deflation. The CBs are making it sound we are in a deflationary situation by calling Inflation as 'Transitory". Do you believe them ?
2. What then is Hyperinflation ?. This may happen if we continue to pump money regardless of the inflationary forces raising their head.
3. How frequent is Hyperinflation & why did it happen?
Read 23 tweets
22 Sep
1.Opinion trump Facts : Was hearing @udayanmukharji's show where Ridham says he has been tracking Sensex since 1985. Sensex came into being only in 1986. ( Jan 2nd 1986 ) 😳
2. In the same program Udayan asks as to what will be the trigger for a major global correction. He should know that there are NO identifiable triggers for any Top/major correction. 🙄
3. @ShekharGupta also on the Evergrande issue. He was saying global markets are already having severe falls because of this fear, including India. All he needed to check was the last couple of weeks moves. Or for that matter even yesterday's moves, especially the US opening.😬
Read 5 tweets