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Real Name:VIJAY; 30+ years in markets. BE(UVCE)/MBA(JBIMS); IMRB/OGILVY; Knocked down many times, NOT yet Knocked out. God's Grace. Retweets NOT Endorsements
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Mar 8 8 tweets 4 min read
1. The curious case of TATA CHEMICALS share. Last week it was struggling at Rs. 933. Lo & behold it jumped by 45 % to Rs. 1349 just in 6 trading sessions. The rise was attributed to a Research report released by Spark Capital, which was widely disseminated in the Media including @CNBCTV18Live @CNBCTV18News @CNBC_Awaaz & other TV channels indicating that the reason for this stupendous rise was due to it benefitting by the imminent listing of TATA SONS IPO. A few questions arise. 2. Before that a brief Background : Tata Chemicals share has been very sluggish for several quarters despite it being the 3rd largest Soda Ash producer globally, with over 2/3rd of its capacity being natural soda ash translating into cost-effective production. TCL is also the 6th largest producer of sodium bicarbonate in the world, and one of the leading agri-services and crop-protection chemical companies in India (through Rallis India Limited). Source: Screener.
Mar 8 9 tweets 3 min read
1.Precious Metals & Other Commodities: Will we get a durable Commodities Rally when Global Economy is not doing great especially in the Industrial Sector?. Check out Precious Metals first. Here is GOLD trading at ATHs & no one seems to be noticing it. Fundamentally, Sovereigns are hoarding Gold since 2022( Highest annual buying since 1951,yes 1951). Technically it has formed an Inverse H&S in the Long term & a Cup & Handle Pattern on the very Long term pattern. Do we still want to ignore ?Image 2. SILVER : It is an "erratic" sibling of Gold. Follows it & many a time, overshoots it in terms of Magnitude. Observe it's behaviour b/w March 2023 & April'23. Just in a month, it shot up from $19 to $ 26(a mind boggling gain of 37%😳. Accumulation pattern seen through a Inverse H& multiple Shoulder Pattern. About to break out.Image
Feb 9 8 tweets 3 min read
HNGSNGBEES: This ETF tracks Hang Seng Index. Right now Hangseng is the MOST HATED INDEX in the World. All the Bulls have given up. The Index P/E is around 8. If there was a good contrarian bet in this market, then my analysis suggests that this is it. DISCLOSURE : LARGEST COMPONENT OF OUR PORTFOLIO . Bought around Rs.230 levels. Hoping for a 25 % CAGR over next 3 years.Image 2. SBI ( Rs.712 ) : This is NOT for day trading. It is a portfolio scrip. This is likely to be one of the Best performers going ahead for the next 12 -18 months. Disclosure. Bought today @ 700. Image
Jan 1 7 tweets 3 min read
1. 2024: Positioning our Family Office Portfolio based on what we think may happen. In early 2023, based on this same thinking, this is how we positioned ourselves. For instance we thought this is how the Sectors would perform in 2023 👇👇 Image 2. What we got right : 1) Sectors when no one was willing to believe that PSUs/PSEs would shine. 2. A very Good Budget 3. A Bull Market through the year. 4. Range of Oil 5. India shining vs Bharat not so much 6. Movement of Asset Classes. 7. Bond Market Volatility. This is what we thought would happen to Asset Classes in 2023Image
Dec 15, 2023 10 tweets 3 min read
1. Is India the Hottest Market in the World?. Market commentators are attributing the sharp rise of Indian Markets since end October to Political Stability;Macroeconomics; India Growth Story; Maturing of Retail segment through SIPs, etc.But are we alone & the "Hottest" ? 2. Among the Major Indices: surprise surprise it is NASDAQ @ Number 1 with a 18 % growth since end October😍 Image
Dec 14, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
1. OVERSTAYING: Many moons ago the Markets were moving ferociously week after week. Euphoria all round. It was on a Sunday in December, we Investors had all gathered @ The Boat Club in Chennai awaiting the verdict of a TA who was working for RJ. The room was jam packed.😎 2. The TA laid out his charts & gave logical explanation as to Markets being too high(83 %)& hence one should get out of the Market. Made sense to most of us since we had enjoyed the fruits of a 6 month Bull Run & if the TA who advises RJ was saying so, then we better believe.🤨 Image
Dec 12, 2023 12 tweets 2 min read
1. When & How do Bull Markets end? A Veteran Investor asked me: I find quite a few similarities in the way market performed during tech boom & now. One difference being that this is relatively broad based. Valuations had very little role then & it more or less looks the same now 2."Can you from your experience tell me how exactly the meltdown happened finally? What triggered the collapse and how long the carnage lasted?"
Dec 6, 2023 9 tweets 2 min read
1. DECEMBERS are consistently MOST VOLATILE MONTHS in the recent past, whether Bullish or Bearish years. I always tread extra carefully,either Long or Short, during this month. There are really NO plausible reasons as to why Markets swing so much,but am prepared this December too 2. December 2022 : Just a short wake up call for the reckless Bulls. Nifty & BN made ATHs & topped out, maybe some insiders knew Adani imbroglio was in the offing. Image
Dec 2, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read
1. US: Is the Presidential Election Year always BULLISH? What does the past tell us? S&P 500's behaviour in the preceding 12 months. Analysis of Elections since 2000. SP increased by 6 %.In the interim Covid brought the Index down by 35 % & CBs mega QE pushed up all Asset prices. Image 2. 2015-16: Obama's 2nd term was ending. Markets were coming off one of the worst years since GFC due to Chain. Bottomed out in Feb'16 at a 14 % drawdown & started a rally. Overall it was a 'Nothing" year. Image
Nov 27, 2023 12 tweets 4 min read
1. ELECTIONS & MARKETS: Huge chatter on how Markets behave in an Election Year & consensus seems to be that they are BULLISH going into an Election Year especially 6 months before. Now that 6 months are left for the Lok Sabha Elections let us see what we can expect. 2. 1991 : Political uncertainty all round. A prospective PM assassinated during campaign. Yet the Sensex went up 22 % leading to formation of a Minority Government of PV Narasimha Rao Image
Oct 3, 2023 9 tweets 2 min read
1.Fundamental Analysis(FA);Technical Analysis(TA)or Interdependent Analysis(IA)?OLD MARKET SAYING : "If you torture the date long enough, it will confess to anything" This is a truism applicable to all kinds of Traders/Investors, be it Fundamental or Technical 2.Had the privilege of Interviewing 2 stalwarts on the opposite sides of the spectrum: The 1st @WilliamGreen72 who has interviewed the World's greatest investment mind from Sir John Templeton to Charlie Munger, Jack Bogle to Ed Thorp to Howard Marks in his wonderful Book Image
Sep 24, 2023 7 tweets 2 min read
1. OIL on the BOIL: The Saga in 3 Parts: 2008 : OIL was in a BUBBLE It was defying Economic Fundamentals. Remember Global Equity Markets were on a downward drift right from late 2007. Hence the sharp fall after a sharp rise . Image 2. 2022: Huge shorts built from 75 $-125 $ through CEs.Had pointed out when it was rising in early Jan'22 in many of my CH/SPACES. We did not know then that Russia will attract Ukraine, but obviously some one knew. News created a short squeeze & then an orderly decline Image
Sep 16, 2023 9 tweets 2 min read
1. Markets/Indices/Manipulation: My thoughts : People generally tend to believe that Markets are Manipulated ALL the time. Philosophically speaking, Everything in LIFE is manipulated. However Markets are NOT manipulatable in the Long Run. 😊 2. Only Traders, who lose often, think markets are manipulated, but Investors have built wealth over time certainly don't think so. Most Marketmen think of Market as a Casino. Veterans like me think of Market as a TEMPLE.🙏
Sep 6, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read
1. US Presidents visits to India & Behaviour of Markets. "Correlation does not imply causation" refers to the inability to legitimately deduce a cause & effect relationship between two events or variables solely on the basis of an observed association or correlation between them. 2. Seven US Presidents have visited India with Obama having come twice. Let's look at how Markets behaved since Clinton visited in March '00.(Previously Carter had visited in 1978). 2000 was all about Tech, hence CNX IT. Visit coincided with the almost the TOP of the Dot Com Boom Image
Sep 3, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read
BULL MARKET OR BULL’S MARKET?
1.A Broad spectrum of Analysts/Traders/Investors strongly believe that we are amid a Mega Bull Market with month end target of 20K being tossed around while 24K seems to be A favorite Number before EOY. Nobody seems concerned about the Downside. 2. he 2022-23 Bull Run was orchestrated by BN; Auto & FMCG Indices which bottomed out in March ’22 well before Nifty, Mid-Caps & Small Caps which did sometime in June ’22. The latest leg started in March ’23 with support from FIIs. This is how they stack up.


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Aug 20, 2023 6 tweets 1 min read
1. A perspective on where are we : I always look at BN more than Nifty to gauge the Temperature of the Markets since BN has been acting as a weather vane in the past. for Instance in 2022, BN bottomed out in March 2022 & when Nifty hit a fresh Low in May 2022 , BN did not . 2.Even when Nifty broke the May lows & made a final low in June '22, BN did not make a fresh low. Similarly when Nifty peaked out in Jan'20, BN had already peaked out 3 weeks prior to that in Dec.' 19. There are several such Instances where BN has been a more reliable Indicator.
Aug 8, 2023 8 tweets 1 min read
1. WHY SHORT SELL IN THIS BULL MARKET ??? Some of my mentees have been asking me as to why I am adopting a SOS ( Sell On Strength strategy) when EVERYONE, their Uncle ; Neighbour & the DOG are BULLISH ??? 2. My short answer : This is a BULLS MARKET & NOT A BULL MARKET 😳
Aug 6, 2023 7 tweets 2 min read
1.EUPHORIA : @Iamsamirarora . Always educative to hear you. Lot's of learning. Recent ZEE TV interaction you made an assertion that there is ZERO EUPHORIA in the Markets. Conservative Old timers like me found a "disconnect". Here are reasons why. Most Punters live here: Image 2. Higher up the Value chain reside here : Image
Jul 16, 2023 12 tweets 4 min read
1."Nobody Rings a Bell at The Top": While the Street eagerly awaits Mount 20K, time to "Smell the Coffee" since cracks are developing in the Bull Markets' edifice. Remember: Bears kill Innocent Investors; Bulls Kill Bears; finally Bulls commit Harakiri. The clock is ticking. 2.Bull Markets are built on Fundamentals & Liquidity. While former was strong between May'22 & Apr'23; Liquidity which was weak till Mar'23 has been gushing since,with Fundamentals deteriorating.Led by "pseudo"FIIs while Retail is being led by Pied Pipers. Courtesy @_ThirdSide_ Image
Jun 18, 2023 12 tweets 7 min read
WHY DO I PLAN TO SELL ALL MY EQUITY HOLDINGS TOMORROW?
1.There are plenty of Books on How, When & What to Buy but there are almost no books on How, When & What to sell. This is a very good book on the subject. Image 2. Since becoming UBER-BULLISH in May 2022,have constructed a CORE PORTFOLIO which has been intact, while making suitable short-term adjustments. Was not perturbed by Adani Scam; FED Rate Hikes; SVB Fiasco & several “Walls of Worry”, since underlying Fundamentals were intact
Jun 2, 2023 7 tweets 6 min read
1. These are the recent Headlines: economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert… 2. Image