Thread by @ThreshedThought

So everyone has been paying attention to Russia and Ukraine recently.

But, in my opinion, there is a bigger strategic play going on by Russia. More significant. More long term.

A thread.

It's all about the Wagner group in Africa.

Now Wagner, for those of you who haven't heard, are a Russian mercenary group ("private military company") owned by a batshit crazy oligarch called Evgeny Prigozhin who, surprise surprise, is a mate of Vlad.

For an absolutely jaw-dropping story about the Wagner Group in the Central African Republic see this fantastic FT article

ft.com/content/11ac95…

But, I digress.

Over the last few years, Wagner have popped up all over Africa.

Sudan, Mozambique, Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, Burkina Faso - these are the ones that we know about.

They are a fairly nasty, unscrupulous bunch, and are guns for hire for a fairly nasty bunch of depots.

So much so that the EU has slapped sanctions on them
in December 2021
aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/1…

But it's their activities in Libya, Mali & Burkina Faso that I wanna concentrate on. This is the big strategic play that Russia is making. Long term. Very smart.

In previous threads I've written about the disaster that is going to hit the Sahel countries as temperatures and populations go up over the next 30 years.

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1479354597038866433?s=20&t=1iWnhmxwuZddAibSKl3nag

The short version is that it is going to create a lot of conflict, and a lot of migrants.

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1479354644363202561?s=20&t=1iWnhmxwuZddAibSKl3nag

So in Mali something very interesting has been going on.

Since 2013, the French and the UN have had sizeable deployments to "support the Malian government in combatting terrorism" (or some such official-speak).

But this wasn't working because it was treating the symptoms ("Terrorism") rather than the causes (climate, overpopulation and poor government).

So, after a couple of coups in Mali (2020 & 2021) the French announced that they were drawing down, and they are now expected to announce that they are leaving completely

france24.com/en/africa/2022…

The relationship has gone really bad - the French ambo was expelled from Mali in January - which is massive: the two countries have generally had a close relationship since decolonialisation (some would say that it never really decolonialised).

In steps Wagner usurping a role traditionally played by France - that of supporting military juntas who take power by force. The newest coup's leaders are using Wagner to prop them up.
france24.com/en/live-news/2…

What about Burkina Faso?

It's pretty similar actually, with a slight twist. There was a coup in BF in Jan 2022. But this time the rumours are that Wager actually supported the coupers to take control. I heard this from a little birdy on the ground, but it has since been reported
thedailybeast.com/burkina-faso-p…

And finally Libya, where Wager reportedly have 7,000 men fighting for Haftar
bbc.com/news/world-afr…

So what's the strategic play here?

Well, go back to my thread on climate change in the Sahel leading to a lot of conflict and a lot of migration over the next 30 years.

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1479354597038866433?s=20&t=1iWnhmxwuZddAibSKl3nag

Russia traditionally hasn't had a lot of influence in the Sahel and the Mediterranean coast of Africa - the external powers were usually the colonial powers (France, UK, Italy).

But by setting up camp in Mali, Burkina Faso and Libya, Russia is now able to influence the conflicts, and refugee flows into Europe over the next 30 years.

Think about how much Europe lost its shit over refugees in Belarus recently, or when Erdogan threatened to open his borders to Syrians. Of the 2014/5 crisis in the Med.

(We're also about to see a lot of Afghans turn up in Europe who left last Aug/Sep/Oct/Nov (cont))

What's going to happen in the Sahel over the next 30 years will dwarf all of that - and Russia will be able to turn the migrants on and off like a tap.

Europe is dozing. They need to get their shit together.

ENDS