Thread by @GSUmbert

So #Ukraine wasn’t exactly Desert Storm this morning, but of the interesting stuff that did happen though..

Yesterday Russian/Belarusian forces commenced and completed construction of a pontoon bridge in #Belarus some 4 miles from the border with Ukraine. 1/

It’s basically in the middle of nowhere and without an obvious purpose, but if you look at the surroundings it makes an interesting suggestion. The pontoon bridge is 10.5 miles north (as the crow flies) of Pripyat/Chernobyl, and spans the same Pripyat River which 2/

flows through both before connecting to the Dnieper River, which is the major river that runs through #Kiev. 3/

The only bridges to the south in Ukraine which span the Pripyat River are the two in Pripyat/Chernobyl, and there’s no other bridges which span the Pripyat/Dnieper rivers between there and Kiev until you reach Kiev itself. 4/

In Belarus, there’s not a bridge which spans the Pripyat River until 40 miles north (as the crow flies) 5/

If an invasion plan calls for a complete surrounding of Kiev, which would necessitate putting troops west of the Dnieper which runs through Kiev, then the two bridges at Pripyat/Chernobyl are strategic crossings to be secured. 6/

For the same reason, Ukraine would want to blow the bridges if they can’t defend them to deny Russia those crossings. 7/

In the event that Russia fails to secure those bridges, the new prepositioned pontoon bridge offers a backup ready-to-go crossing point just 4 miles from the border — it’s less than ideal but it makes sense as a backup. 8/

So I guess the plan includes surround Kiev at the outset as part of a major coordinated advance from all fronts 9/

Also.. 10/

The other interesting thing that happened was last night — a VIP extraction at the Polish-Ukrainian border (11:20pm local time). An American medivac Blackhawk helicopter flew to and landed on a road at the Polish-Ukrainian border (on the Polish side) just feet from the border 11/

The border crossing point is that which you hit if you head straight west out of #Lviv, which is where the US has relocated its embassy from Kiev. 12/

Diplomatic staff had been relocated earlier, but the day prior the US had went further to relocate its intelligence officers to Lviv as well. During the extraction, a dark-colored SUV pulled up to the border in Ukraine feet from the helicopter and two individuals 13/

(one seemingly male, and carrying a large object, and the other female) exited the SUV, walked to, and boarded the helicopter. Both were walking without medical assistance and apparently healthy, making a true medical evacuation less likely. 14/

Once the helicopter took off, road traffic on the spot was resumed. The Blackhawk made a stop at a Polish hospital about 50 miles west before continuing a further 30 miles northwest to an airfield in #Mielec which the US military is operating out of as a temporary base. 15/

Despite the use of a medivac Blackhawk and the stop at the hospital (as well as because of those factors) I think it’s more likely it was an intelligence-related VIP extraction of some sort 16/