"All happy families are alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way." Leo Tolstoy (Anna Karenina)
i.e. A boom is a boom but each bust brings its own version of misery...
i.e. A boom is a boom but each bust brings its own version of misery...
...Our version of misery will come from the 40yrs of financialization (aka financial/speculative capitalism).
The high tech. revolution enabled optimization of the real economy around finance & asset prices in ways that used to be impossible...
The high tech. revolution enabled optimization of the real economy around finance & asset prices in ways that used to be impossible...
...Technological innovation opened new ways of "managing" markets and super-charging the growth of debt, leverage and credit-driven over-consumption.
Until 2008, financialization was sustained by two essential conditions - ever-rising debt + ever-declining cost of debt...
Until 2008, financialization was sustained by two essential conditions - ever-rising debt + ever-declining cost of debt...
...The collapse of 2008 rendered further "organic" financialization impossible. Rather than face a reset, governments stepped in to perpetuate the status quo via "inorganic" financialization based on price controls, unconventional monetary policies & non-enforcement of sec laws..
...this last ditch attempt at sustaining the unsustainable is now being brought to a close by a confluence of factors beyond governments' control, including sharply rising inflation and growing instability across political, social & geopolitical spheres...
...The main takeaway is that we will enter the coming crisis burdened by a set of aggravating circumstances, whose full impact is hard to predict b/c they are either completely new or their size and scope far exceeds historical precedents.
Buckle up.
Buckle up.
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