Speaking of SVB, the "borrow short & lend long" business model is at the heart of all modern banks & numerous investment funds that offer frequent redemptions while investing in long term assets like mortgages, HY & HG bonds, CDOs, etc.

With this in mind, consider the following: 1. W/rates at 5,000 yr lows for over a decade, bond investors have had to use leverage to boost returns.

2. As rates rose in the past 12 mo, all medium & long term bond portfolios suffered 20%-40% mark-to-market declines.

3....

Western economic thought is rooted in the idea that "the cure for high prices are high prices," I. E. high prices induce increased supply, which lowers prices.

This framework assumes stand by production capacity that gets dialed up or down in response to higher/lower demand. 🧵 When supply is "elastic", CBs tame inflation by lifting rates to reduce economic activity & lower demand.

But what if supply is constrained & cannot meet even base line demand? What if adding supply requires time, capex & materials already in short supply?...

The long-simmering global contest for power & influence has just erupted into a full blown war.

Here are some observations (not projections) of the early casualties 🧵 RIP world peace:

Ukrainian war is not about Ukraine; it is a full blown Russian-American war.

Whether it stays hot or cools off, the rupture we are observing in real time is irreparable.

New battle lines have been drawn for decades to come.

"All happy families are alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way." Leo Tolstoy (Anna Karenina)

i.e. A boom is a boom but each bust brings its own version of misery... ...Our version of misery will come from the 40yrs of financialization (aka financial/speculative capitalism).

The high tech. revolution enabled optimization of the real economy around finance & asset prices in ways that used to be impossible...

One major problem during systemic crises is conflation of concepts, language, statistics, etc. For example, "hope is not a strategy" actually describes hubris and blind optimism, not hope at all.
Real HOPE can be profoundly strategic. Consider the true, deeper meaning of "hope": "Either we have hope within us or we do not.

It is a dimension of the soul and is not essentially dependent on some particular observation of the world.

HOPE is an orientation of the spirit, an orientation of the heart." ...