Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Feb 17, 2022 14 tweets 9 min read Read on X
#ExtremeWeather TS #Emnati Update:

After a night of explosive convection and organisation What was #96s #Invest96s or #TD5 is now #TSEmnati - and forecast to become - like #Batsirai an Intense Tropical Cyclone on Sunday packing Cat3 Hurricane intensity winds of 185kmh.
And the good news is that JTWC - [metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html… website seems to be back online. They were missed. Here is the latest official track forecast issued by JTWC Pearl Harbour this morning at 3:00Z (UTC). This storm can now be considered to be a major threat to Madagascar.
The forecast track is almost identical to that of #Batsirai, which has left over 120 Malagasy dead, destroyed and damaged 10s of thousands of homes and buildings. Flooded areas have not even drained yet.
Information on the current state of UN/NGO/Relief damage assessment following #Batsirai can be found here >> reliefweb.int/country/mdg
1. Number of damaged and destroyed classrooms in the districts as of Feb 14, 2022
2. Summary map issued Feb 15th 2022.
It hasn't really stopped raining since Batsirai, and is not expected to do so in the lead up to the forecast arrival of #Emnati generated more intense rains on Sunday/Monday most likely. Core cyclone strength rains are forecast to begin on Tuesday 22nd.
Like #Batsirai #Emnati is forecast to head West South West and cross Madagascar in approximately 48 hours. With hurricane force winds and storm surge arriving late Monday.

The track and heaviest rains are expected in exactly the same areas hit by #Batsirai.
Here's the 10m Wind forecast for the landfall period.
And from the ECMWF model a maximum wind gust forecast during the period of landfall.
On its final approach to Madagascar #Batsirai went through a eyewall replacement cycle - and weakened and slowed down a little before resuming strengthening.

But #Batsirai was a much more long duration cyclone. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_B…
And so far #Emnati is not behaving as predicted. It is moving West North West rather then due west as expected in the track forecast. And as we can see here this is taking it into more shear which is slowing it down a little.
As you can see here its moving towards the area where #Dumako formed, and it is possible that this apparent variation in heading could result in a more northerly landfall in roughly 6 days time.
Here's another animation, zoomed out, without shear lines which shows the track variation more clearly.
This storm has proven very unpredictable so far and could continue to be unpredictable.

Cyclone forecast accuracy is considered good up to three days so it is unlikely that there will be a significant deviation from what is currently expected - beyond the landfall location site.
In the meantime the people of Madagascar have roughly five days to prepare for the arrival of a second Intense Cyclone #Emnati in the space of just over two weeks - the fourth landfalling Tropical Storm to strike the island in less than a month (#StormAna arrived Jan 24).

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More from @althecat

Jul 25
Guess who has the most to lose if/when @realDonaldTrump discovers he’s now a lame duck President.

He is now so deep under water both in polling and with his base that it’s very hard to imagine him bouncing back.
I’ll answer my question shortly buts it’s well worth pondering…. In the meantime consider this.

Trump is now a laughing stock. And not only is everyone in America now laughing at him. But he has also been abandoned by his base and his party.
The bonfire of vanity that belongs to Donald Trump is iridescent, a signal to the world that his presidency has ended before it even started.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 25
This is pathetic from @realDonaldTrump he’s lashing out like an angry teenager. Jerome Powell says he’s included a the costs of a building that was completed years ago in his very public attack on the FED Chair.
Trump has completely lost the plot. The single most damaging thing that he could do to undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar (which he publicly claims to want to deflate and there by make all Americans poorer - is to attack the Federal Reserve and the SEC.
@realDonaldTrump Trump is setting fire to the dollar to distract from his Epstein mess what a complete baby.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 2
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.

open.spotify.com/episode/3YV0SU…
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.
Read 13 tweets
Jul 2
This article is deeply depressing. For my part at Scoop.co.nz it is clear to me that:

1. The Govt has a deliberate strategy - probably not official but nevertheless operative to destroy NZ media.
2. This is not going to change any time soon.
thespinoff.co.nz/politics/02-07…
& Sadly from what I discerned last year the @nzlabour opposition is both apathetic and indifferent to the plight of media. Also the @NZGreens. And have always been so for as long as I can remember.

This is extremely disappointing
@nzlabour @NZGreens I will be returning to NZ in August to ensure continues to function in these very difficult times for NZ media. We have faced numerous big challenges recently and thank our supporters and readers for their support.Scoop.co.nz
Read 5 tweets
Jan 22
Ok so this is a bit weird, but in a kinda chill way so do bare with me and and I will be happy to answer questions afterwards. It’s about a castle on a virtual island in a massive online role playing game called Evony and it involves a possible but speculative discussion about @elonmusk and @X.

All will be revealed but first a picture or four actually from the game. More will come.Image
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Ok. So here’s what I think is going on in a nutshell. I think elonmusk has invested in a MMORPG: a “Massive Multimedia Online Role Playing Game” which is a bit of a mouthful, called EVONY.

I liked its Twitter ads and finally clicked. It’s huge. Someone else can do the business story here which I am sure is interesting too.Image
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But the this bit is weird.

The mysterious knight on the red horse arrived this morning beside my castle and he had some treasure.

I hadn’t a clue who it was so I grabbed the treasure and tried to kill the horse and rider as that’s what you do. But we got smashed badly.
Read 15 tweets
Jan 12
This interview with working class Uk financial markets savant Gary Stevenson - who has just published an autobiography - is seriously terrifying. He now has a @YouTube channel it seems and I’ll post a link shortly.

James O'Brien meets Gary Stevenson | LBC via @YouTube
His prognosis for the collapse of social democratic nation state finances due to the very sharp rise in income distribution inequality in the UK is horrific.

The consequences of unfettered transfers of money over decades due to neoliberal economics initially and more recently quantitative easing driven transfers of wealth from the middle class to the top 5% of the population is the cause of his concern.

It’s very hard to imagine what can be done politically to rebalance this.

Thomas Piketty’s thesis which among other things warned about all of this based on long term historical analysis of wealth inequality appears to be colliding with Western Civilisation in a manner that threatens the very foundations of that civilisation.
Gary’s YouTube channel which addresses all this is here.

Understand The Economy via @YouTubeyoutube.com/playlist?list=…
Read 7 tweets

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