Andrei V Kozyrev Profile picture
Feb 17, 2022 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Concerning developments today. Recent history can teach some lessons.

Recently declassified US national security docs vis-a-vis NATO expansion corroborate the story of damaging US diplomatic moves in early 1990s.
nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/…
President Clinton wonders “whether or not we should try to be more frank with the Russians” about U.S. vision on NATO expansion. Disguised American posture helped Russian hardliners to recreate a hostile view of NATO, still exploited today.
Even before the formal end of the Soviet Union in December 1991, Russian President Yeltsin sent to NATO an open letter stating an intention to join the alliance as a long-term strategic goal.
The next three years presented a “window of opportunity” for transforming Russia from a nuclear armed enemy into an ally of the US. It was missed.
Washington preferred an easier path: admit Eastern European nations to NATO instead of the enormously difficult and not guaranteed effort of co-opting Russia.

As a result, the major European security problem was left to rot.
Moreover, even that policy was not communicated
straightforwardly. That is a lesson for policymakers.

But not a justification for today's aggressive and anti-NATO policy from the Kremlin, as the alliance presents no danger to Russia.
Today appeasers in Europe and "realists" and wishful thinkers in the US argue for putting Ukraine's NATO aspirations aside, like Washington did in the early 1990s to Russia.
Ukraine joining NATO is also heavy lifting, but worth it. If the Kremlin wins this confrontation, the problems in Europe and in Asia would get much worse. Don't step on the same land mine again.
The US declassified documents I mention corroborate exactly what I wrote in my memoir, The Firebird.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Andrei V Kozyrev

Andrei V Kozyrev Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @andreivkozyrev

Sep 7
Lavrov revealed Putin's Russia's global strategy, which is a paraphrased version of Cold War tactics that never ended for Putin and his allies.
It's high time the West responded to this reality with deterrence, containment, and an information campaign."
+3
During the Cold War, the Soviets aimed to undermine the global dominance of American and Western imperialism.
Putin's Russia like the USSR seeks opportunities for intervention in Europe, engages in subversion through propaganda and espionage in the West, pursues an arms race and nuclear brinkmanship, and supports regimes like those in Cuba, North Korea, and Syria.
Read 4 tweets
May 17
Despite the grandeur of Putin’s visit to China, the outcomes were underwhelming. The focus was on non-binding political declarations, while the real business was negotiating discounted oil and gas trade in Yuans.
Tread of 4.
Xi granted no recognition of annexations or claims to Ukraine, only a “peace plan” to entice Pu to continue debilitating war and lose lucrative hard currency Western markets.
The bottom line: Xi hugged Putin in Beijing, leading him to further sell Russian security interests, lives, and resources for glass beads. The underlying disbalance of relations in China’s favor will only grow.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 5, 2023
Here is why Russia and China's neighbors should consider acquiring nuclear weapons to ensure security and reduce America's global responsibility burden. THREAD.
Putin, the dictator of a nuclear superpower, seeks validation and fame through aggression. China might emulate this if Putin succeeds in Ukraine.
Putin perceived Ukraine as an easy target and initiated conquest. His cruelty in Ukraine also conveyed to Russians that compliance was essential.
Read 25 tweets
Jul 26, 2023
Governments start wars in pursuit of various objectives, from conquering territory to changing the regime of a hostile state to supporting a beleaguered ally. L. Freedman
For Putin, NO change of his regime is above all.
Thread.foreignaffairs.com
Like all authoritarians, Putin needs enemies, domestic and foreign, as a body needs bile to sustain itself. In this, hate substitutes motivation, demonization - humanity.
It's more than just a Russian phenomenon. But it makes Putin's war particularly ruthless and stubborn.
Read 17 tweets
May 27, 2023
Amid optimism about the forthcoming offensive and the future UKR joining NATO, the West is losing in UKR and on the world stage.
Weapons win wars. Putin’s weapons are bombs delivered to UKR from distant sanctuary airports and launch sites, mass cannon fodder, and a primitive but enduring economy.
China is helping Putin economically and diplomatically to humiliate the US and NATO, making self-isolated from West Russia a cheap game full of resources.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 1, 2023
A choir of voices calls for a “realistic” settlement in Ukraine, with Russia gaining at least Crimea. One can only imagine what will happen after that in the long run. Thread.
2084.
Xi IV to Putin IV: I decided to grant Russia the privileged status of province in my Heavenly Communist Kingdom.
I appoint you the governor of the new province —two reasons for this promotion.
Read 19 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(