Foreign Minister of Russia, 1990-1996. Member of the State Duma till 2000; then businessman, speaker. Author: The Firebird (memoir), The Caligula Curse (novel).
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May 17 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Despite the grandeur of Putin’s visit to China, the outcomes were underwhelming. The focus was on non-binding political declarations, while the real business was negotiating discounted oil and gas trade in Yuans.
Tread of 4.
Xi granted no recognition of annexations or claims to Ukraine, only a “peace plan” to entice Pu to continue debilitating war and lose lucrative hard currency Western markets.
Oct 5, 2023 • 25 tweets • 3 min read
Here is why Russia and China's neighbors should consider acquiring nuclear weapons to ensure security and reduce America's global responsibility burden. THREAD.
Putin, the dictator of a nuclear superpower, seeks validation and fame through aggression. China might emulate this if Putin succeeds in Ukraine.
Jul 26, 2023 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
Governments start wars in pursuit of various objectives, from conquering territory to changing the regime of a hostile state to supporting a beleaguered ally. L. Freedman
For Putin, NO change of his regime is above all.
Thread.foreignaffairs.com
Like all authoritarians, Putin needs enemies, domestic and foreign, as a body needs bile to sustain itself. In this, hate substitutes motivation, demonization - humanity.
May 27, 2023 • 10 tweets • 1 min read
Amid optimism about the forthcoming offensive and the future UKR joining NATO, the West is losing in UKR and on the world stage.
Weapons win wars. Putin’s weapons are bombs delivered to UKR from distant sanctuary airports and launch sites, mass cannon fodder, and a primitive but enduring economy.
Apr 1, 2023 • 19 tweets • 2 min read
A choir of voices calls for a “realistic” settlement in Ukraine, with Russia gaining at least Crimea. One can only imagine what will happen after that in the long run. Thread.
2084.
Xi IV to Putin IV: I decided to grant Russia the privileged status of province in my Heavenly Communist Kingdom.
Feb 3, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Putin again threatened the West with nuclear weapons. The Biden Administration refuses to send long-range missiles and F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.
Both news broke out almost simultaneously. Coincidence? Causation. Thread of 8.
Putin, like I, was a part of the Soviet foreign policy bureaucracy - the KGB (Foreign ministry). He knows that after the Cuban missile crisis, the Kremlin dropped the illusory doctrine of winning a nuclear war.
Jan 22, 2023 • 17 tweets • 2 min read
Two opposing justifications are implied for not defeating Russia in Ukraine. It is too strong, a superpower that will use nuclear weapons. It is too weak, an almost failed state that will fall into chaos. Thread.
The imminence of both hazards is exaggerated. Their realistic appraisal leads to an opposite conclusion. Russia can and should be defeated in UKR.
Jan 19, 2023 • 9 tweets • 1 min read
Tanks, no tanks. Tanks and now. But the real problem is that NATO has a self-defeating strategy. Thread of 8.
NATO vows to “stay with Ukraine for as long as it takes.” To accomplish what exactly? It’s for Kyiv to decide.
Nov 6, 2022 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
For Ukraine "No negotiations with Putin" is detached from reality as "Start negotiations now."
Ukraine's unambiguous heroic stance in response to Putin’s aggression is in the heart of the strong American and international support. This stance should continue to be realistic to maintain support and combat “Ukraine fatigue.”
Sep 21, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Yes. Putin’s words should be taken seriously despite the threats to the West are empty. He is losing, and should be met with more weapons to UKR and sanctions on Russia.
On the pictures he is drinking Voss and wearing the Loro Piana, the brands from the NATO member states.
Aug 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Boris is good on what is going on in Russia. Sanctions can hit the population in a couple of months. The army is running out of steam. The deliveries of Western equipment are changing the military situation very seriously.
Putin and his narrow circle are stubborn but hanning in the balance. Powerful part of the "elite" and military are hit too. They could face the reality and try to press for a corrective course, before the masses revolt.
Aug 1, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The Budapest memorandum (BM) is also in the heart of NPT. Thread of 4.
The BM registers
“Security Assurances in Connection with Ukraine’s Accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.”
Jul 1, 2022 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
My take on the NATO summit and where we go from here. Thread below.
Agree, but like any diplomatic achievement, this one will be measured by practical results both at home and abroad. @POTUS said it’s all about “Russia, Russia, Russia.”
Big minds meet on basic assessment of the war in Ukraine and the endgame. Just read carefully. Thread of 6.
1. Henry Kissinger believes President Vladimir Putin miscalculated the international situation and Russia's own capabilities when he launched the invasion of Ukraine.
May 22, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Discussed Putin’s survivability with great @AliVelshi this morning. It’s unpredictable, but worth thinking about to understand the endgame for the Ukraine war and post-war strategy. Thread of 9.
Putin might rule for another 22 years. Or one of his acolytes can take his place. The regime may survive for decades even under sanctions. Its anti-democratic, anti-western bent and imperial ambition might remain too.
May 17, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Putin has said Finland & Sweden in NATO no threat. But he first had threatened them even with nukes - blander of course. Now in revenge he shoots Russia in the foot.
The Russian FM announce withdrawal from Council of the Baltic Sea States. The CBSS was established in 1992 to promote democratic and economic development in the Baltic Sea Region.
May 15, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Tonite @FareedZakaria. What is inside the mind of Putin? Definitely, no clues on developing Russia. He is in power for 22 years. All that time has been desperately looking for a direction to justify staying in power.
Direction to reforms, to the West? Tried cautiously. Would be good for Russia. But leads to free market economy and fair elections . No, stop, Danger!
Mar 29, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
The good news from the Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul is not that Putin is suddenly acting in good faith, but that heroic Ukrainian resistance is making him look for off-ramps and diplomatic disguise.
A few important lessons in this thread
1. This could easily be a maneuver to buy Russia time to regroup and then hit as hard as they can.
Last week, I read critiques of my position on Putin’s rationality and possibility of nuclear war. Many are not realist enough about the nuclear threat or the right response.
I argue in this thread that if we “blink” on Putin’s nuclear threat, we will increase the risk of WWIII.
Nuclear deterrence is based on the belief that any attack with nuclear weapons will immediately trigger a mirror response in kind. For more than 70 years, this conviction – the balance of fear - was shared by nuclear powers and kept WWIII away.
Mar 6, 2022 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Lots of discussions about the threat of nuclear war from the Kremlin and whether Putin is rational. I share my thoughts in this thread.
To frame: I do not believe Russia would use nuclear weapons and I believe Putin is a rational actor.
First of all, I want to examine where the questioning of Putin’s rationality started. I think it began because most people, particularly in the West, view his decision to invade Ukraine as utterly irrational. I disagree. It’s horrific, but not irrational.
Feb 17, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Concerning developments today. Recent history can teach some lessons.
Recently declassified US national security docs vis-a-vis NATO expansion corroborate the story of damaging US diplomatic moves in early 1990s. nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/…
President Clinton wonders “whether or not we should try to be more frank with the Russians” about U.S. vision on NATO expansion. Disguised American posture helped Russian hardliners to recreate a hostile view of NATO, still exploited today.
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