1/3 the economic policy uncertainty index (EPU) has almost reached historical peaks in dec'21 and jan'22. it is compiled based on newspaper articles and searches them for frequency of certain trigger words. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUIN…
2/3 it has peaked near tight presidential elections, wars, the financial crisis and fiscal battles such as debt ceiling debates. Check out the details from its creators here: policyuncertainty.com/media/BakerBlo…
3/3 have spikes historically been good for stock market returns? the table below shows the highest EPU levels since 1985 and what the next 12 months $spx returns were.
they also have done the analysis on a long term horizon. note that 1965 was pretty much the worst time in the 20th century to buy the s&p. uncertainty is the friend of the long term investor.
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1/9 don't think so much about #jeromepowell, check out the deleveraging happening in the option chain! here is why:
2/9 options gained enormous popularity in 20/21, especially in retail, which peaked in the meme stock mania in Jan/Feb 21. this was fueled by the monetary and fiscal stimulus which created a rare case of a bull mkt with a sustained vix >20, ideal setup for momentum strategies.
3/9 options are leveraged bets, they can fuel bull runs, but also exacerbate corrections once the deleveraging process starts. last year, total option vol has been 2x the '19 level in terms of # of contracts traded.