Here are the 50-yard splits from the medalists in the women’s 500-yard freestyle final at the Ivy League champs. A 15-year old pool record was broken. Pacing strategy 101: Which of these patterns suggests a significant reserve capacity and likely underperformance? 
If you said, gold, you’d be right. In events lasting longer than about 3 min, negative pacing strategies and the characteristic endspurt (where we speed up at the end) are suggestive of someone who has maintained a reserve, producing a controlled effort below max for the race
A larger endspurt and a greater negative split reveal that a greater reserve was held. In effect, it speaks to how much “was in the tank" at the end. It’s produced when we tap into a reserve. Typically, max or optimal performances are achieved with slight negative or even splits
Indeed, the progression of world records in distance events is the result of “flattening” the curve. It used to be they started fast, slowed down, then sped up a bit (like the bronze medalist here). But optimal performances require flat lines. I’d say sliver is very close to this
But gold is an anomaly. This is a pattern that suggests a very comfortable effort, well managed and controlled, with significant capacity to go faster, realised in the final 50 yards only. If was a coach of that athlete, I’d be excited at the potential time if pacing was optimal.
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