A lot of the time after such a severe dump a lot of bulls realize they were on the wrong side and wanna desperately get out on a retest
I've seen this countless times where price simply doesn't give this retest on the first try
2/ Instead, it creates false hope, front-running the area on the lower time frame resistances and creating another two or three legs/swings lower on the lower timeframes making all the bulls really anxious and selling their position as they psychologically can't take it anymore.
3/ At that point they are selling right into a higher TF support or close to it based on their emotions.
Price reacts to this heavy market selling and retraces above the next logical point of liquidity.
Right to a place they wanted to sell in the first place
4/ However at this time the mentality is different.
They are no longer looking to sell but rather are scared of price running without them. After all, it's been a rather bigger bounce.
You can see some jumping back in at that point. That's right, into a higher TF resistance.
5/ Right there that's exactly what the smart money needed to get their desired liquidity filled for their shorts.
Right at resistance. At that point, the market is truly ready to head another higher TF leg lower until a further level of liquidity is breached.
6/ Hope u did enjoy this mini thread of my take on what COULD happen.
By no means, this must happen but I have seen this pattern occur time & time again, and if it doesn't this time, it's still valuable to keep in mind for next time when it will.
β’ β’ β’
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
#Bitcoin to hit 689 000$ βΌοΈ
--
Lots of people ask me what my TP is for this cycle as it seems everyone is so obsessed with TPing as fast as possible because
"One more pump & then a bear market (Or one final sweep then a bull market π€£"
My stance is & always has been this:
ππ§΅
We remain bullish as long as the market is.
Obviously, this is not popular on social media because everyone wants to hear certain numbers whether that's 90K or 900K so they know what to expect & it also brings so much engagement
Saying we stay bullish as long as the market is pretty much a vague term but it is the one that produces the most money
Because we never know how long the bull market will last and even the best investors in history got burned hard trying to short the dot-com bubble too early
This is what I keep reading here but I have to strongly disagree
In this thread 𧡠I'll go over why any move for #Bitcoin from here will be detrimental & why it's either gonna become a HTF distribution or re-accumulation
1/15π
#BTC since 2022 has been mainly defined by these three major ranges with a mini one in between at 40K
The current one takes 192 days, compared to the 220 days between 25-31K & 276 days of the bottoming one
To contextualize things and put them into perspective
The topping range in Q1-Q2 2021 took about 97 days & the top range in 2019 took about 96 days
This makes the current being twice as long as those topping ones
It made sense to stay π on #Bitcoin as long as the trend & range were holding & equities were going up but now it has lost its MS after 130 days of π¦ PA & we need to adapt
I'll break down all the facts you need for all scenarios in understandable language below π
1/18 π§΅
When it comes to bullish/bearish posts it always comes down to TimeFrames. You can have a trader that is bullish on H1 screaming at a bearish trader on D1 while the Weekly trader is bullish again
It makes no sense & we need to analyze each one differently to understand the TF π
The macro view, which is like a Monthly to somewhat Weekly, remains bullish, while Weekly down to Daily is now bearish
The M1/W1 TF remains bullish as long as the 39K low is holding but locally we can be bear-bleeding for some time as the 130 days long #BTC range was lost
You don't wanna miss this #Bitcoin alpha thread π§΅π
#BTC around 50K is still within a strong value area
Lots of people sidelined, waiting for a bigger correction will miss out
Data from Financial Advisors across the US are suggesting big future upside
1/20
Read belowπ
First of all, I did expect we would get the upside we got from the 40-45K range, but after, I thought we would get a deeper pullback at some point to like 32K or so
I do not think that anymore
Below is the original thread worth your time to read through
No emotional bias, just truth bombs full of data & mainly my own context β
Both bullish & bearish arguments - HTF to LTF
Hit like & Bookmark to keep this plan in the back of your mind
Let's get to it π
1/25
We start HTF, scale in & create the valuable context π
So my thesis has been & is still the same throughout the whole of 2023, that we move above the so important psychological level of March 22 high, sitting at 48K, distribute above & pullback