Here is the psychological truth about the #Bitcoin / #Crypto market 👇

The vast majority of market participants bought the top in 2021, whether the 1st or the 2nd. The exact price is unimportant for this post

🧵 Silent Read Time: 1 Min, 52 Sec 1) A decent portion of them sold the bottom, especially after the #FTX crash

Either from panic selling, multiplied by the fear spread on social media with posts such as:

EXIT ALL MARKETS or THE GREATEST RECESSION since THE GREAT DEPRESSION coming

The others from the greed of..

You don't wanna miss this #Bitcoin alpha thread 🧵👀

#BTC around 50K is still within a strong value area

Lots of people sidelined, waiting for a bigger correction will miss out

Data from Financial Advisors across the US are suggesting big future upside

1/20

Read below👇 First of all, I did expect we would get the upside we got from the 40-45K range, but after, I thought we would get a deeper pullback at some point to like 32K or so

I do not think that anymore

Below is the original thread worth your time to read through

https://twitter.com/i_am_jackis/status/1746179917060915667

BIG #BITCOIN ALPHA UPDATE 13/1/2024 🧵

No emotional bias, just truth bombs full of data & mainly my own context ✅

Both bullish & bearish arguments - HTF to LTF

Hit like & Bookmark to keep this plan in the back of your mind

Let's get to it 👇

1/25 We start HTF, scale in & create the valuable context 👇

So my thesis has been & is still the same throughout the whole of 2023, that we move above the so important psychological level of March 22 high, sitting at 48K, distribute above & pullback

https://twitter.com/i_am_jackis/status/1637381298510524416

🧵 Big thread on INTEREST RATES around the Western economies & their future projections & implications on the markets

Everyone's focus is on the FED funds rate but by understanding all of them we get a much clearer picture of where the FED is heading 💡

Let's dive in 👇

1/22 As you can see from the picture, central banks in Western economies tend to move the interest rates on average in a similar trend

We could even call it a consensus

However, some are frontrunners & some laggards and by comparing them all, we can get a general idea of the trend

What I often see people doing wrong is waiting for that "One last" - 🧵 THREAD - 1/9

- "One last" draw on liquidity
- "One last" equal lows sweep
- "One last" capitulation
- "One last" shakeout
- "One last" - you name it ✍️ For example, one (in)famous trader called ICT kept waiting for BTC to sweep the 2015 HTF equal lows

He has been waiting for the #Bitcoin crash and the sweep since then

It has never come to this day

RISK to REWARD / COST to BENEFIT 📚

🧵 In-depth thread about this phenomenon, that can be used in various aspects of our lives. Not just in trading

This will IMPROVE your life 👇

1/25 Risk to reward, in shortcut RRR or just RR, is an amazing concept that we use every day without even realizing it

But it is exactly that realization, which you will learn here, that will help you identify & use it effectively

2/

🧵 The biggest problem with #Crypto Twitter is that it has wrongly set out incentives

It rewards OGs for tweeting stuff people WANT to hear but not what they NEED to hear

That's the direct reason why some most hated accounts have the largest followings

Read below 👇

1/18 The reward system on Twitter is mainly through 4 things:

1) Likes
2) Retweets
3) Comments
---------------
4) Followers - A way we measure "success" / social-economical status

Where number 4 is growing based on the 3 above

2/

The Market Maker REKT Model 🧵

This entire run-up in January is very tricky to play

Most #ALTs, including #Bitcoin, look like this or very similar

After a year of down only, people have PTSD to just blindly buy here, reasonably so, so they wait for the "proper" pullback

1/5 The market however is not giving any clean retests and this creates frustration and "built-up energy" in the market

Until it finally does retest. Most are happy and finally get in. If lucky, the market creates another swing higher.

2/

#Bitcoin has reversed and confirmed its trend change as the majority of #crypto experts still fail to accept it and will be missing out.

The question is, will you ❓

Find out why in this thread below 🧵👇

1/ Nearly all major longer-term tools a lot of people use such as market structure, moving averages, supertrend, RSI, MACD, MVRV, Puell, % drop, and so on are pointing out to a trend reversal

That by itself wouldn't matter that much, it's the CONFLUENCE that matters here

2/

What most people dont realize is that what has happened to #FTX can happen to literally any bank in the world at any time

Banks run on a fractional reserve system & yes, they hold far less reserves than FTX had

FTX was then nothing more than a better TradFi-crypto bank 👀

1/4 If people for some reason do a bank run on any of your fiat banks, it will collapse

Had for some reason people start doing it in herds on multiple banks, the fear would spread & the system would collapse.

Then only hard assets such as #Bitcoin | #Silver | #Gold would be secure

I've been saying this before and I'll say it again, #Bitcoin is trading as a digital commodity 💯

The rules are simple...

If you are bearish on #BTC you are bearish on #Copper. If you see new ATHs for COPPER you are seeing new ATHs for BTC as well 🫡

1/4 #Bitcoin is here to stay, whether you like it or not.

The big difference between the two is the volatility of a new asset. Where one does 100% the other does 1000%. The same goes for HTF pullbacks.

How do you solve the unaffordability of houses for the young ones, when the older ones are using them as a Store of Value to defend themselves against an inflating currency?

You change the Store of Value for the older ones -> #Bitcoin In the end, you could see countries guiding people to rather store value in #BTC than real estate

It's a far better solution than putting a price cap on it

Then real estate will once again become way more affordable

🧵 I had to make this #Bitcoin schematic & small thread to explain why the 30K "floor" = 6K "floor" in terms of psychology

Why we already did undergo the Depressing Capitulation & are possibly Bottom Ranging

You may like it, you may dislike it but... it is what it is 👌💯

1/7 The major critical part is that after the bull run we experienced the first major drop, which was bigger than -50% to test the first demand zone (OB+), which was followed by a Complacency +100% rally

That 1st drop & OB+ created a floor that in both cases lasted +280 days

2/

1) House of the Dragon 🥇
2) Nothing
3) Rings of Power 😕
4) 💩
5) 💩
6) 💩
7) Witcher Season 2 😭😭 Let's be honest tho. House of the Dragon most likely surprised most of us.

After the failure of GoT ending, I thought, I'd never return to this world, especially from HBO but they have redeemed themselves and after a long time actually enjoying a TV show again

🧵Thread on the past bear markets and a few thoughts of mine

Each of the past three bear markets was similar yet different in nuances.

All of them took around 9-14 months to form in an apx 75-85% correction

1/8 1) We got a year of sell-off followed by an 8-month long range

2) We got a year of sell-off followed by a parabolic run within, followed by a second shorter bear market

3) We got a quick flash crash followed by a deviation above past wick ATH - followed by a -year of sell-off

📚 Weekly INSIDE BAR accumulation 🧵

Whenever you see price trading within the Weekly Capitulation candle & seeing another 5+ weekly candles inside of it, you need to think - ACCUMULATION

Very powerful hidden pattern, not many know about 💯

1/5 2/ Few things that raise the probabilities when trading with the INSIDE bar Weekly Candle.

1) Price not touching the upper boundary before 5 weekly candles appear inside of it

2) Small body candles are a sign of tight range and price accumulation

#Bitcoin 2019 bottom vs #Bitcoin 2022 bottom 👀✍️ People telling me I cannot use H8 vs D1 are trying to teach the eagle how to fly, when in reality, they are the mice about to get caught by the eagle 🦅

https://twitter.com/i_am_jackis/status/1425019659359866891

🤔 ✍️✅

Many times I see bears mention that the volume is low, hence this can't be THE bottom

This makes me think what chart are they looking at cause the Biggest SPOT exchange is seeing the largest volume area in its history, aligned with a previous ATH & DEMAND retest

1/3 The market is as oversold as it has not been since 2014/15

I think a lot of bears are over euphoric on a intraweek pullback ahead of FOMC which the market might've been pricing in before it the news just like we have seen with the CPI candle on July 13th

2/

People misunderstand the term "inflation" & say #Bitcoin has failed as an inflation hedge. WRONG!

They think it's some weirdo numbers & that's the inflation

Inflation is when monetary supply expands not when it's measured by gov as a YoY % difference. That's lagging info

1/6 So when we actually had monetary expansion IN 2020!! We saw #Bitcoin price & other assets appreciate the inflation.

At the moment we have a monetary deflation, hence why u see prices of assets going down. Yet you see gov measured inflation going up

2/

🧵 I found out a live conversation from back in March 2020

Since many people keep saying stuff like:

"Look at the world economy", "Recession", "Bitcoin will fall with the rest" & bla bla bla

Each cycle the same different song

1/4 And you keep seeing the same pattern repeat over & over again.

People look at the news, which are things of the past, and are predicting a future based on them but fail to understand that markets always price-in stuff before anything else in the world.

2/4