Puru Saxena Profile picture
Feb 19 4 tweets 1 min read
Sentiment check -

Last year, when I repeatedly warned about a big pullback due to the end of QE, the mood was euphoric and most thought a big decline was impossible.

Now, after 50-80% declines, when I am suggesting scaling into quality growth stocks, the mood is super bearish!
Last year, most were focused on "digital transformation" and they were convinced the high flyers would never go down!

Today, most are convinced that these compounders are "done and dusted" and will never recover!

They are the same businesses, only the price tag has changed!
If you loved a business last year, you should love it even more now because its market cap is now 50-80% lower.

Those who invest at these levels are getting more bang for their buck today.

If the underlying business is sound, the current markdown (sale) is a gift. My 2 cents.
For the sake of accountability, I've been an advocate of *weekly* dollar cost averaging from late December until late March...

This strategy might not catch the absolute low (who can!?), but if my assessment is correct, this will work out well for long-term shareholders.

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More from @saxena_puru

Feb 20
FinTwit's fake gurus who were super bullish in Nov/Dec 2021 and mocking my warnings are now telling their followers to not dollar cost average in the smashed high quality growth stocks (after 50-80% declines) because many go to zero!

This type of 'advice' should be banned!!!
So many shameless charlatans on FinTwit...

All one needs to do is check their colourful history - yet they run paid services on here and con thousands of gullible retail investors.

Always check a person's background before parting with your hard earned money.
A lot of these services now urging their followers to go long energy stocks because they are in uptrends!

When the YoY rate of change of the CPI print peaks and economy decelerates, these energy stocks (along with the price of crude oil) will get crushed. Be careful.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 18
Lot of chatter that the bombed out leaders of this bull-market will "never come back", they will remain "dead money" for years!

It might take several years for some of them to get back to their ATHs *but* the great high growth businesses will be multi-baggers over time.
With so many high quality businesses down 70-80% from their ATHs, just getting back to their old ATHs will make them multi-baggers for those who scale in around these levels.

Over time, these businesses with strong growth will leave the "cheap/mature" companies in the dust.
Remember, the high quality companies which are mission critical are not broken businesses, they are simply temporarily broken stocks (due to tightening liquidity).

When the rate of inflation peaks and Fed backs off, these loathed stocks will recover.

Buy fear, sell euphoria.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 11
A number of anonymous haters have circulated my fake bio on Twitter, so I wish to set the record straight -

In 2001, I co-founded an SFC-regulated investment management firm in Hong Kong and was its Director + Responsible Officer.

In 2005, I resigned from that firm, sold my...
...shares and founded my boutique SFC-regulated investment management in Hong Kong, which I ran as Director/Responsible Officer for 11 years.

In 2016, I retired from the investment business and my company was acquired by a Hong Kong based listed asset management firm...
From 2001-2016, I was a regular guest on BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN and RTHK Radio and also wrote monthly investment columns for the South China Morning Post (Sunday Money), Hong Kong Business Magazine, Hong Kong Economic Times and Hong Kong Economic Journal....
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
Another day of relative strength in growth land - Image
Got trolled for being cautious in late 2021 and recently, got trolled for suggesting that growth stocks might show relative strength and bottom before the indices!

Not sure whether growth stocks have bottomed or not but they are showing relative strength.

Weekly DCA way to go!
As the economy slows down in H1 2022, the recurring revenue companies with durable growth are likely to shine again...

When the near-term prospects of most businesses become murky, investors should flock to the safety and predictability of the recurring revenue compounders.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 6
The bounce off the recent lows appears to be a relief rally within an ongoing bear-market.

Liquidity conditions, rising rates and valuations suggest ~15% decline in $SPX before hitting *the* low.

It'll be interesting to see if beaten down growth stocks show relative strength.
The reason I've scaled into growth stocks is because they've already declined 50-80% and their valuations have become either cheap or fair; thus conceivable they might bottom before the indices.

In any event, my exposure is hedged via $ARKK short + am also short index futures.
If the indices decline (likely) and growth stocks get caught in the selling, my $ARKK short/hedge will defend my capital and my index futures shorts will generate profits.

If the indices and $ARKK rally, my stops will get hit with small losses and my portfolio will be long.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 4
Portfolio snapshot -

Long - $ADYEY $AFRM $AMPL $CFLT $DDOG
$DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $MELI $MNDY $OKTA
$S $SE $SNOW $SOFI $TOST $TWLO $U $ZI

Short - $ARKK #RTY_F

After raising cash at start of Dec, am now done re-investing. Portfolio is hedged via $ARKK + net short via #RTY_F.
Secular growth stocks have already been murdered!

Most are down 50-75% from their ATHs and even $ARKK declined by 60% from its ATH and gave back all of its post-COVID gains (this, despite the fact that the underlying companies grew rapidly in 2020/2021).

Cont...
In January, $ARKK bottomed at $64 and then tested that low a few days later.

After the recent rally, current pullback has found support *above* last month's lows. Base formation seems to have begun and the crash is in the rear view mirror. This is time to scale in and buy fear.
Read 4 tweets

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