After raising cash at start of Dec, am now done re-investing. Portfolio is hedged via $ARKK + net short via #RTY_F.
Secular growth stocks have already been murdered!
Most are down 50-75% from their ATHs and even $ARKK declined by 60% from its ATH and gave back all of its post-COVID gains (this, despite the fact that the underlying companies grew rapidly in 2020/2021).
Cont...
In January, $ARKK bottomed at $64 and then tested that low a few days later.
After the recent rally, current pullback has found support *above* last month's lows. Base formation seems to have begun and the crash is in the rear view mirror. This is time to scale in and buy fear.
Very tough to know whether we've seen *the* low for the secular compounders/high growth stocks.
Should the indices decline over the next 4-6 weeks, high growth stocks may also come under pressure but I suspect they will show relative strength and should be bought on weakness.
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Secular growth stocks showing strength, most consolidating above last month's lows.
They peaked before the indices, probable they'll also bottom out before the broad market.
After 50-80% declines between Nov-Jan, the crash is behind us. DCA over next 5-6 weeks should work.
The indices are still vulnerable to a final leg down which will likely also affect the growth stocks.
This is why weekly buying over the next 5-6 weeks is probably the safer option. As soon as the Fed backs away or gives clarity, these secular growth stocks will take off.
To those who are chirping, my message has been clear for weeks -
Growth stocks peaked before the indices, likely they'll bottom before the indices or at least start showing relative strength.
Broad market (which is still ~10% below ATH) remains vulnerable to a final flush.
January was tough for stocks and it was especially brutal for growth stocks!
Before the month-end rally, $ARKK was down ~30% from the start of the year and both $ACWI and $SPX were down ~10%. The rally over the past couple of trading sessions eased some pain...
Monetary policy is the horse, economy is the cart.
Liquidity moves the economy + financial markets in both directions. Monetary policy works with a lag and its effects become obvious several months later.
GDP and CPI are lagging indicators, they always look hot near the top.
The recent boom was created by the easiest liquidity conditions....ever!
The abrupt ending of QE and tightening by other central banks will bring about big economic slowdown in H1 '22.
Lots of carnage under the hood, many stocks weak...the indices are skating on thin ice.
Based on liquidity conditions and several leading economic indicators, it appears both economic activity and inflation will peak soon...
Thereafter, we are likely to get a swift contraction in risk assets and flight to safety (US$ and USTs).
Fed announced QE "taper" in Nov and accelerated it in Dec....but data shows that over past 4 weeks, its balance-sheet still grew by ~$120b!
In anticipation of the end of QE, hedge funds dumped tech stocks in Nov/Dec. With Fed still pumping $120b/month, will HFs now ↗️ exposure?
After realising that despite QE "taper" announcements, the Federal Reserve's balance-sheet still grew by $120 billion over the past four weeks, I covered my #NQ_F short at a loss, also my long $ futures position and $TLT
I've also increased exposure to growth stocks.
In November, the Fed announced it would reduce QE by $15 billion per month and in December, it announced it would reduce it by $30 billion per month (with view to ending it in March).
Despite these 'hawkish' declarations, its balance-sheet still grew by ~$120b over past 4 weeks!