Thread by @DrScottBalsitis

New data updates today in the #UrgencyOfNormal toolkit! I'll go into detail here on the updates to (1) better quantify how vaccines address COVID risk for older adults, and (2) delve into what vaccination rates in children really mean (and don't mean). 🧵urgencyofnormal.com

The slide on vaccine protection for those >65 yrs now shows absolute risk levels, rather than just % vaccine efficacy, and compares COVID risk levels to the flu for this age group.

From CDC data, peak flu hospitalization rates in the >65 year old age group range from ~10-50 per 100k per week. The six most recent pre-pandemic years are shown here. gis.cdc.gov/GRASP/Fluview/…

If unvaccinated, Omicron hospitalization rate in >65s was far higher than flu (>400 per 100k). With 3x vaccination, though, it becomes flu-like (27.5) Vaccinating and boosting the elderly has high payoff for individual and public health.

Jan 8th was just shy of the Omicron hospitalization peak, as you can see here, so the final peak will be slightly higher but still clearly in the realm of flu for the 3x vaxxed. covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

Also, note the COVID data above are not corrected to remove hospitalizations in which COVID was not actually the cause of hospitalization, so is likely a substantial overestimate.

We added this new slide on pediatric vaccination rates because some places are citing low rates in this age group to justify keeping them under various restrictions. These arguments suffer from two major flaws.

First, vaccination rates alone do not account for immunity derived from prior COVID infection, which is at least as effective as vaccination in preventing severe COVID, as shown in the CDC graph on the slide.

The CDC estimates that as of Dec 2021, 45% of children had already recovered from COVID infection, and thus have immunity. So if local vaccination rates in the 5-11 year old age group are, for example, 30%, the total immunity rate is more like 70%. covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

Linking normalcy to kids' to vaccination rates, when we know they vastly underestimate the true immune protection those kids have, is nonsensical.

Second, Omicron transmits efficiently in both vaxxed and unvaxxed people. The vaccines are amazing for prevention of severe disease, but cannot stop transmission. We adults must take responsibility to protect ourselves, not place burdensome and ineffective measures on children.

The data continues to support the case for #UrgencyOfNormal. I hope these updates are helpful to you and to your communities in reclaiming the profound value of living normally.