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Garry Kasparov Profile picture
@Kasparov63
Feb 20, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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After warning so many White House admins blundering with Putin, I don't care if they listen to me as long as they are listening to reason. If you make the same mistake twice you are either a fool or it's not a mistake at all, it's collusion & corruption.
I blasted W Bush for treating Putin like an ally after 9/11, but they were both new on the job in a crisis. By 2008, Putin wasn't a mystery, but Obama gifted him the Reset. Trump was Putin's fan and beneficiary. Biden talked tough, but is repeating the reactive pattern.
As I just said on CNN, I *hear* Scholz, Macron and Biden talking, but I don't see anything new. Putin was "a pariah" in 2008 when he invaded Georgia, invaded Ukraine & shot down MH-17 in 2014, etc. And? He hosted the World Cup in 2018 and Nord Stream 2 went ahead. Pariah? Image
I'm not in the mood to be charitable when thousands more innocent people may about to be murdered by a man I was told repeatedly I was overreacting to call a dictator and threat.
Once again, dictators don't ask why, they only ask why not. If you don't act to stop them, they assume you are fine with what they are doing, but must say that you aren't for show. It's up to the leaders of the free world to prove Putin wrong. I'm not sure he is.
Just one example of the thinking that got us here, the dismissive tone of a so-called Russia expert in a review of my 2015 book Winter Is Coming. He had already invaded Ukraine & annexed Crimea, but I was overreacting! washingtonpost.com/opinions/chess…
Many lives are at stake, but so is the global order based on the rule of law. Putin's invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea shook its foundation. Now he wants to shatter it. If the free world is worth defending, it must be defended now. video.snapstream.net/Play/79yBSXy8o… Image
Words matter. It's a Putin crisis, not a Ukraine crisis. There are no separatists; they are Russian occupation forces. There is no Russian president; there is a dictator with nukes who wants the world to dance to his tune. Words matter, but they have never stopped a dictator.
For predicting Putin's moves, just see what he sees. He looks around and doesn't see forces coming to defend Ukraine. He hears leaders of mighty nations only talking instead of acting to stop him. He sees promises, not action, and he knows promises are made to be broken.

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More from @Kasparov63

Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Mar 24
When mail-in voting is limited or eliminated, then selected polling stations are closed or surrounded with "security checks", when poll workers are replaced by ICE "for security", when ballots are confiscated for "fraud", maybe you’ll take it seriously. Too late.
Remember that they aren’t afraid of being caught, or how bad it looks; they’re only afraid of losing power. If you win, you have total impunity—they believe and they’ve been told. Pardons for everyone who is in on the scam, again. So no scheme is too brazen.
Riots at polling stations with emergency crackdowns, boxes of pre-filled ballots, buses with carousel voters, intimidation of poll workers, allies with access to the counting—all the Putin tricks. Why not? They don’t care if they get caught, and it only has to work a few times.
Read 4 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Mar 11
Putin is being helpful indeed. According to accumulating intelligence reports, he’s helping Iran kill US forces. But Trump and Witkoff say that Putin told them he’s not, and it would be too humiliating for them to admit the truth. Congress? Anybody?
Iran and Russia have both confirmed that Russia is continuing to support its longtime close ally in this war. The only people who don’t believe this are Trump and buffoons like Witkoff who depend on Trump and Putin for their livelihoods.
Btw, two days before this war started, I wrote in the Wall Street Journal that the number two most advanced nation in the world for drone tech and tactics was now Russia, and that NATO nations were not prepared because they weren’t learning and buying from number one, Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Mar 4
Adding to my thread on why authoritarians like chaos to include Iran itself. Firing on its neighbors is a way of raising the stakes, of trying to show the cautious Gulf states & Western democracies that it is willing to burn everything down. Part bluff, part desperation.
Putin has demonstrated the effectiveness of simply showing the will to use force, to kill and be killed, while the strongest military alliance in history has no such will. This is the legacy of 35 post-Cold War years and a generation of rich and complacent leaders & citizens.
If you aren't willing to fight for your values, even for your own security, you will be bullied by those who are, even if their values are abhorrent. *Especially* if they are, in fact. As true in domestic politics as in geopolitics and war.
Read 4 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Mar 3
I’ve written on this dynamic, and although Iran is Russia’s ally, this attack being "bad for Putin" is not clear unless there are real consequences—military or economic. Chaos usually favors dictators & strongmen who can exploit opportunities quickly and dominate the headlines.
It’s humiliating for another of Putin's thug allies to be taken out like this, and it reduces Russia’s malign influence network significantly for the moment. But dictators don’t care about intangibles, only about being in power tomorrow and the next day.
Without strategic follow-up, a new Iranian leadership equally aligned with Russia may arise. And the price of oil, which Putin actually cares about because it funds his wars and his corruption, almost always goes up during war and uncertainty. Iran attacking so widely does both.
Read 5 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Mar 3
Childish insults only reinforce the fact that Trump hates Zelenskyy on a petty, personal level because Zelenskyy is everything he is not—a man of courage who represents his nation not himself—and refuses to cave into Trump's demands to surrender to Russia.
Blasting aid to Ukraine as a waste also further exposes the lack of strategy in Trump’s chaotic foreign policy and military interventions. Standing with allies & defending the US-led global order by defeating Russian aggression in Europe is in clear US national security interest.
Also note that Zelenskyy immediately offered aid and anti-drone expertise in Trump's war with Iran, a shared enemy responsible for thousands of Ukrainian deaths. No doubt it would’ve saved American lives to consult with Ukrainians earlier. Instead, more insults.
Read 4 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Feb 19
This a fundamental misconception. The business plans between Putin and his oligarchs and Trump and his family and cronies aren't side deals, they are the entire point. Putin wants Ukraine to surrender and Trump does as he's told to help, but the negotiations are a coverup.
It's one of the failures of imagination that democratic leaders and citizens make when dealing with mafia states, terrorists, and autocrats of all stripes. They don't think incrementally. They aren't constrained by laws and norms. They are only afraid of punishment.
This same mistake is visible regarding WH election interference for midterms. Redistricting and laws to disenfranchise millions to prevent non-existent fraud threats are underway. But people who think they have more to lose by losing than by violence will choose violence.
Read 4 tweets

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