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Garry Kasparov Profile picture
@Kasparov63
Feb 20, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
After warning so many White House admins blundering with Putin, I don't care if they listen to me as long as they are listening to reason. If you make the same mistake twice you are either a fool or it's not a mistake at all, it's collusion & corruption.
I blasted W Bush for treating Putin like an ally after 9/11, but they were both new on the job in a crisis. By 2008, Putin wasn't a mystery, but Obama gifted him the Reset. Trump was Putin's fan and beneficiary. Biden talked tough, but is repeating the reactive pattern.
As I just said on CNN, I *hear* Scholz, Macron and Biden talking, but I don't see anything new. Putin was "a pariah" in 2008 when he invaded Georgia, invaded Ukraine & shot down MH-17 in 2014, etc. And? He hosted the World Cup in 2018 and Nord Stream 2 went ahead. Pariah? Image
I'm not in the mood to be charitable when thousands more innocent people may about to be murdered by a man I was told repeatedly I was overreacting to call a dictator and threat.
Once again, dictators don't ask why, they only ask why not. If you don't act to stop them, they assume you are fine with what they are doing, but must say that you aren't for show. It's up to the leaders of the free world to prove Putin wrong. I'm not sure he is.
Just one example of the thinking that got us here, the dismissive tone of a so-called Russia expert in a review of my 2015 book Winter Is Coming. He had already invaded Ukraine & annexed Crimea, but I was overreacting! washingtonpost.com/opinions/chess…
Many lives are at stake, but so is the global order based on the rule of law. Putin's invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea shook its foundation. Now he wants to shatter it. If the free world is worth defending, it must be defended now. video.snapstream.net/Play/79yBSXy8o… Image
Words matter. It's a Putin crisis, not a Ukraine crisis. There are no separatists; they are Russian occupation forces. There is no Russian president; there is a dictator with nukes who wants the world to dance to his tune. Words matter, but they have never stopped a dictator.
For predicting Putin's moves, just see what he sees. He looks around and doesn't see forces coming to defend Ukraine. He hears leaders of mighty nations only talking instead of acting to stop him. He sees promises, not action, and he knows promises are made to be broken.

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More from @Kasparov63

Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Mar 7
Talk is cheap. And has there ever been a Trump statement that acknowledges Russia is the invader and could end the war by going home? Ukraine could "get to the table" & Russia would blow up the table. Limiting Ukraine's ability to defend only encourages Russia to keep attacking.
Russia’s latest massive attacks against Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure came right after Trump limited Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and threats to withdraw aid completely. Putin sees weakness to be exploited so why would he stop?
As for Trump’s sanctions threats, let’s see it. There are plenty of expert recommendations on how the US could lead a much tighter squeeze on the Russian economy and Putin‘s cronies. Biden didn’t and I don’t think Trump will. Some superficial Kremlin-approved PR, maybe.
Read 4 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Mar 6
America’s credibility as an ally has degraded to the level of Russia and China with every retreat over four administrations. As Truman warned, failure to deter is what leads to bigger wars. If your enemies don’t believe you will use force, you eventually have to.
The president sets foreign policy, but when it's so blatantly contrary to long-standing US policy, values, and interests in the short and long term, there must be more resistance than social media statements of concern. Image
The American people support Ukraine and condemn Russia's invasion broadly and across party lines. But that will change as Trump & Musk continue to ally MAGA with Russia. That's how cults of personality work. The justifications are just decoration.
Read 6 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Mar 5
It felt like a curiously Soviet entrance, as if every Republican there knew someone would be going over video to see who was clapping hardest and longest, but maybe my imagination...
Never mind, Trump is already into the "enemies of the people" material, so my original diagnosis was accurate. Will he be announcing record grain harvests next?
Trump won on inflation and culture wars. He's making inflation and the economy worse, so time to triple down on woke. This will be his theme forever, an immortal boogeyman to kill over and over.
Read 8 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Mar 4
Just remember that whenever Vance, Trump or Musk and the rest talk about Ukraine and Zelenskyy, ask why they aren’t talking about Russia and Putin, the cause of the war that could end it today.
Minerals, suits, thank-yous, it’s all chaff. Putin’s wishlist for the Trump admin, in no particular order: 1) Halting or delaying Ukraine aid 2) Lifting sanctions 3) Splitting US from EU allies & NATO 4) Stopping Ukraine's attacks on RU energy infrastructure …
5) Weakening Zelenskyy in Ukr to attempt pro-Kremlin replacement 6) Approval of taking territory by force 7) Rehabilitation of Russia & Putin on world stage 8) Sabotage of global economy to raise value of oil & gas 9) Elevation of pro-Kremlin politicians & policies in EU.
Read 6 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Mar 3
Btw, this echoes the pleas of the Russian opposition back in the Obama era when Putin might have been deterred. Obama wanted peace with everyone and we warned him Putin didn't care. But if he wasn’t going to stand up to him, at least stop legitimizing him and working against us.
Biden became more of the same, although his old Cold War instincts had initial promise in clearly seeing Russia and Putin as enemies of the USA who would do far greater damage if not stopped in Ukraine. But despite my many complaints, Trump was the greater danger and we see why.
Trump didn’t campaign on embracing Russia & saving Putin. He talked about ending the war—on day one—but since Jan 20 it’s clear that was a euphemism for giving Russia whatever it wants with no concessions. Russia started the war and could end it today. But he pressures Ukraine.
Read 6 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Mar 3
Russia is a threat to America's interests, not to Trump's or Musk's. This distinction must now be embedded in any conversation about national security, as happens in every autocracy. Kissing up to Putin, destroying the Atlantic alliance, tanking the economy with tariffs, etc.
Western media, leaders, and analysts still struggle to realize Russian policy has nothing to do with "good for Russia" or Russians. It’s Putin, personally, and his cronies. Dictatorships don’t exist as states for long; they become public fronts for private mafias. Putinization.
There’s no US foreign policy interest in teaming up with Russia's dictatorship. No mythical "split them from China" or economic benefits. Legitimizing Putin's use of force in Ukraine encourages more of it & promotes nuclear proliferation. But good for Trump & Musk, somehow yes.
Read 4 tweets

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