Thread. Ukraine war scenarios

Eastern Ukraine Scenario (Stratfor)
Coastal Scenario (Stratfor)
Land Bridge Scenario (Stratfor)
Possible Russian Invasion Routes (CSIS)

Russian seizure of Ukraine up to the Dnepr river
Linking Russia with Crimea and Transdniestria (CSIS)
Russian seizure of Ukraine past the Dnepr river (CSIS)
Russia's possible axis of invasion (British Ministry of Defence)
U.S. government assessment of possible Russian attack routes
Six routes to take over the eastern flank and 50 percent of Ukraine’s military (U.S. government)
Two routes to surround the capital Kyiv (U.S. government)
A route to create a land bridge to Moldova and control much of the Black Sea coast (U.S. government)

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More from @DrAlakbarov

Feb 20
Thread. More famous people in Russia spoke out against the war with Ukraine.

Boris Grebenshchikov, rock musician:

"It is known that any war is a crime against humanity. History clearly shows that those who start a war always end badly."
Sergei Guriev, economist:

"I was born in North Ossetia. In our family gorge there is a famous monument to those who did not return from the war...

If Russia attacks Ukraine, it will happen against my will. I'm sure that most of my fellow citizens agree with me."
Evgeny Kissin, pianist and composer:

"War is always grief, tears, blood and death. Aggressive war is a crime for which there is and cannot be any justification."
Read 16 tweets
Feb 20
Ethiopian government officials said a giant hydroelectric dam built on a Nile River tributary is set to begin generating power from today.

The move going to make Egypt and Sudan very angry.

With a population of 100 million, 97% of Egypt's water supply comes from the Nile.
Egypt has said the dam poses a grave threat to the nation's water supplies and Sudan has said the dam imperils millions of lives.

African Union-sponsored talks between all three nations have yielded no progress.
This brings to my comment from yesterday:

Read 11 tweets
Feb 20
Thread. The photography of Ximena Echague

Born in 1966 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Lives and works between New York and Brussels. She became a documentary and street photographer in Europe. Her travels and her life in big cities have influenced her way of looking at the world.
Adaptation. Thailand © Ximena Echague
© Ximena Echague
Read 6 tweets
Feb 20
Latest updates from Ukraine:

* Multiple explosions heard in centre of Donetsk (Reuters)
* Yesterday self-propelled artillery seen in Donetsk
* NATO chief: All signs suggest Russia plans 'full-fledged' attack on Ukraine

#UkraineConflict
* Shelling with 152mm artillery reported in Butivka-Opytne area near Donetsk
* France: Any miscalculation from any side will ignite the situation in Ukraine
* France: We have indications that Russia is preparing to deploy additional forces in the Donbass region
* The European council has called upon Russia to de-escalate and withdraw military forces, while commending Ukraine’s “posture of restraint in the face of continued provocations and efforts at destabilisation”.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 19
Thread. The photography of Melissa Breyer

With a childhood dream mapped out to be a painter, Breyer would toy with different mediums of artistic expression in a bid to quench the thirst for communicating the vision of the world around her before settling with a camera in hand.
While the desire to transmit her work through a lens has grown organically, Breyer has managed to carve out her own world within a vast field of stylistic approaches and, in doing so, has successfully conveyed an alternative take on street photography.
Melissa Breyer moved to New York to become a painter and ended up becoming a waitress, first at a pasta place in Greenwich Village, then at a bar and grill in Williamsburg, Brooklyn.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 19
Thread. Tibet means a lot for China and India.

This is one of the key reasons, why very little trade has moved between China and India over the centuries and I don't think we are going to see any major changes in upcoming future.
Tibet would give India the commanding heights of the Tibetan Plateau and a base from which to push into the Chinese heartland, as well as control of the Tibetan sources of three of China’s great rivers:

1. The Yellow river
2. Yangtze
3. Mekong
Tibet is known as ‘China’s Water Tower’.

China, with a huge population, will clearly not going to allow India to get Tibet.
Read 4 tweets

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