Leaving Moscow after 5 d of intense conversations. Early in the week most people were hopeful about signs of deescalation. Moderates thought Kremlin was calming down. Hawks believed RU would get what it wants merely by mil posturing. This changed in past 2 days.
People who know about economy are extremely worried about consequences of sanctions. But they do not have the Kremlin‘s ear. Haven’t had it for a long time. Liberals fear war AND domestic consequences in Ru: more autocracy, more repression.
Since Friday night everybody should have unterstood the situation is dead serious. What is happening now clearly is a well-staged provocation from the Russian\DLNR side. 23 February is the „National Day of the Defender of the Fatherland“. We‘ll see where we are then.
At the end of my last meeting we shook hands an said: let’s hope he blinks (no explanation needed, I suppose, as to who we had in mind). I am absolutely not sure he will.
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