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İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي Profile picture
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Feb 20 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
It's not just corruption. Wanna know how bad energy policy can become a strategic liability? Germany de-commissioned its nuclear plants and set a carbon neutral target of 2045, making itself desperately depending on gas, meanwhile it has no LNG facilities
Nuclear phase-out aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/3…
Why nuclear is essential if we want fast transition to carbon neutrality
Why natural gas is important as a transitional fuel (half carbon emissions of oil/coal) forbes.com/sites/arielcoh…
German LNG facilities not happening (which would allow it to import liquified gas from all over the world, reducing reliance on Russian gas) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
A third of Germany's natural gas comes from Russia. Biggest power consumer is industry. reuters.com/world/europe/h…
As a result Germany must face *either* an energy crisis, *or* a long-term strategic threat + a new refugee crisis + the collapse of the security order on its continent.

Caveat: I'm not an expert, I'm just really curious. So tell me what I'm not seeing here.

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More from @iyad_elbaghdadi

İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي Profile picture
Feb 18
One thing that I find deeply annoying about coverage of Russia-Ukraine is that nobody is speaking about the geopolitics. They're crucial if you want to understand Putin - who keeps talking about history and geography, not ideology
Russia's borders are flat terrain, it has no natural defensible borders, and its heartland is in the Western portion of the country. This is why it has historically expanded (and needed buffer states); this is why it needs a very large land army + 25K tanks. Geography matters
Tl;dr, Putin took a bad hand and played it badly, bringing Russia to this moment in history. He poses as the victim but he had 20 years to strengthen support for Russia among "buffer" nations. Instead he championed corruption and kleptocracy. Not a model masses love to embrace.
Read 4 tweets
İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي Profile picture
Feb 18
Thinking aloud. I don't think Putin's goal is to occupy Ukraine, I think his goal is to wreck it, turning it into a failed state. I think what we now call the "Ukraine crisis" will become a new normal, as he uses everything in his repertoire to make Ukraine unstable
With ~150,000 troops, he has enough for an invasion but not enough for an occupation, and definitely not enough to fight an insurgency. Think what a nightmare Iraq was for the US? Ukraine is much bigger than Iraq and its population is more than double Iraq's 2003 population.
In fact I can even venture to say that if there's a way to utterly destroy Putin's regime, it would be for him to try to occupy & hold Ukraine. It would wreck him politically, militarily, and economically. It would be his end. He's far too smart to do this, he knows better.
Read 6 tweets
İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي Profile picture
Feb 11
America wouldn't let 9/11 families sue Saudi Arabia but is happy to steal food from the mouths of Afghan children. What an awful, disgusting, immoral move.
You want to know why America is hemorrhaging soft power around the world? It's shit like this. A country this immoral and hypocritical has *no* place on the world stage as some sort of "universalist" organizing principle.
They steal your bread, take half of it, then give you the other half as "humanitarian aid" - as charity - and then expect you to thank them for their generosity and humanity. This is America.
Read 4 tweets
İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي Profile picture
Feb 8
Don't be mistaken - the Israeli assassination of 3 Palestinians in a Palestinian city in broad daylight is *designed* to bring about a wave of violence and bloodshed. This is what Israel always does when it's cornered: incite bloodshed.
It took only 7 days between @Amnesty releasing its report about Israeli apartheid and Israel committing a mafia-style assassination in broad daylight. I bet they're hoping to point to the Palestinian reaction and say "See, we told you, Israel is merely defending itself"
Reminder that Palestinians have lived and continue to live under constant, relentless systemic violence by Israel. To Palestinians, there is no "break" from violence; and to Israel, there is no act of Palestinian resistance that is not met with brute force.
Read 4 tweets
İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي Profile picture
Feb 2
Yesterday, Amnesty released a report identifying Israel as sustaining an apartheid regime under international law. Israel was pissed, but also, there were Palestinians who were unimpressed. A thread about the strategic significance of the report for the Palestinian cause:
In straightforward terms: Israel can do whatever the fuck it wants to us because it's more powerful than us. It's more powerful than us because it has the explicit or tacit support of a broad segment of the "international community", and benefits from the existing world order.
As someone recently said, "The reason we cannot defeat Israel is that we are not *only* fighting Israel". We are fighting an entire world order. Nearly every global system of oppression intersects upon us. I tweeted about this previously here:
Read 17 tweets
İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي Profile picture
Feb 1
It's because they're freaking the fuck out. When it's HRW *and* Amnesty agreeing that this is apartheid, it's a watershed moment for the normalization of the apartheid framing across the entire global human rights community. This *is* indeed big.
From here on, it's Israel vs the global human rights community. They can't even use their normal whataboutism to attack Amnesty - "hey why don't you call out human rights violations in Mozambique!" - because Amnesty is *global*.
And so they'll go to their usual offence/defence - accusing everyone and everything of antisemitism. That strategy may work against individuals or small teams. But not against *the global human rights community*.
Read 6 tweets

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