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Sergei Perfiliev Profile picture
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Feb 20 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Ok, many have asked for examples of Russian propaganda.

Sure, let's take ZeroHedge and see what's in store, shall we?

Simple test - Navalny.

He's the most prominent member of the non-existent Russian opposition.

I google "Navalny site:zerohedge.com". 👇 Image
First link: zerohedge.com/geopolitical/a…

Let's have a read.
"Another Navalny Drama..."

Implying this is yet another silly "drama" instead of a serious matter.
"...Hungry Western Media"

Again, calling the media "hungry" downplays the problem.

This suggests the media is desperate for a story and will make one out of thin air, instead of there actually being a serious issue.
"The indulgence and fawning must have given Navalny a sense of impunity..."

Navalny faced severe consequences for his decisions, yet ZH writes about his sense of impunity...
"...reinforcing his megalomania and attention-seeking..."

Frames Navalny in a negative light.

Justifies his behaviour as attention-seeking, instead of him actually being in trouble and needing help.
"After three weeks allegedly on a hunger strike..."

Why use the word "allegedly"? Why instantly dismiss that he can be on a real hunger strike?
"...Western orchestrated drama."

The man was poisoned with military-level substance, and ZH calls it "Western orchestrated drama." Are these guys for real?

No proof of anything. Calling a serious, global issue - "drama".
"Another factor is that Navalny is a conman and stooge of Western intelligence services."

This is straight out of the Kremlin's playbook!

Any criticism of Russian government is the work of Western agents who simply want to undermine the great and glorious people of Russia!!!1!
This is an unsubstantiated claim. Outright bullsht.

Yet they're stating it like it's a fact.

Blame the fictitious, external enemy.

Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.
"To carry out a real hunger strike..."

Ok, now they're just blatantly stating that he's not on a real hunger strike.

And we're just FIVE sentences in!!!

They have no shame.

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More from @perfiliev

Sergei Perfiliev Profile picture
Feb 12
Do I think the war in Ukraine will happen?

Until yesterday, I was confident there won't be any military action from Russia.

(At least no more than the undercover warfare that's been going on since 2014).

There are many reasons for this 👇
Ever since Crimea, Russia became isolated and took the backstage on the global geopolitical arena.

Putin was feeling a little lonely since no one took him seriously.

This Ukraine situation was a great way to gain back the attention and respect that he was seeking.
He didn't even need to invade.

Just putting a few tanks here and there allowed him to book back-to-back meetings with world leaders, who were all desperate to negotiate with him.

Moreover, if Putin were serious about invading (like he was with Crimea), he would just go for it.
Read 10 tweets
Sergei Perfiliev Profile picture
Feb 7
Ok, I see people started running my code on all kinds of things now - single-stocks, Bitcoin, their neighbours' mortgage...

VERY IMPORTANT:

Remember, we're trying to predict option dealers' delta hedging actions based on dealers' positions!

"DEALERS' POSITIONS" is the key! 👇
We need to know how many options they hold and hedge.

Only then we can translate that into gamma.

If we don't know their positions, all of this is meaningless.

For US indices, we're making an assumption that investors sell calls and buy puts, with dealers taking the other side
This is based on index skew, strong call overwriting flow, put protection buying etc...

It's a crude approximation, but allows us to calculate 'naive gamma'.

For single stocks and Bitcoin this assumption does not hold.
Read 5 tweets
Sergei Perfiliev Profile picture
Feb 3
Are you tired from constantly living in the dark, fully unaware of the current Gamma Exposure?

Are you frustrated from having to guess the Zero Gamma level ALL THE TIME?

Are you annoyed from not knowing what the f*ck all of this even means!?!

I know, I was.

👇
Hello, my name is Sergei.

And today, I'll show you how YOU can change YOUR life, once and forever!

After this 10-minute tutorial, you'll be able to take full control of your gamma needs and live the life YOU want.

Impress your boss, colleagues, friends, spouse, children, dog!
By the end of this thread, you will be able to:

• Create a simple spot gamma chart for your favourite stock index.
• Compute its total gamma exposure.
• Construct a sleek-looking gamma profile chart 😎
• Calculate a Zero Gamma level (aka Flip Gamma).

🔥 !! AND !! 🔥

👇👇👇
Read 54 tweets
Sergei Perfiliev Profile picture
Jan 21
Yesterday, many noticed that @squeezemetrics's GEX index hit an all-time low.

Lowest reading ever.

Since GEX measures gamma exposure, a low value implies the dealer's delta is less sensitive to index moves.

However, why would this be a bullish signal?
This is something I tried to understand, so here are some thoughts behind this.

Historically, a very low GEX has indeed been a short-term bullish signal.

This can be seen even from visually observing the chart on dix.sqzme.co
The low points of the GEX coincide with SPX moving higher shortly after.

Important to note is that low values also coincide with a selloff in the index shortly before.

It makes sense as we move from the positive-gamma dealer-long-call region into the negative-gamma price range.
Read 11 tweets
Sergei Perfiliev Profile picture
Jan 13
TO ALL EQUITY PMs:

YOU MAY NOT BE INTERESTED IN OPTIONS, BUT OPTIONS ARE INTERESTED IN YOU!

$SPX options make up 16% of the $SPX market cap!

Options gamma is one of the most significant structural flows within the equity markets.

Let's explore how it impacts your business 👇 Image
Options are often linked to insurance.

And many times, rightfully so.

They can help protect your portfolio when the sky is grey, and the rain washes down your hard-earned gains.

However, there's a key and vital difference.
Traditional insurance business typically uses diversification as a risk-management tool.

The exposure to any single adverse event can be hedged by insuring other adverse events that fail to materialize.

With enough uncorrelated bets, it's possible to achieve a positive return.
Read 37 tweets
Sergei Perfiliev Profile picture
Jan 5
Wait, wait! Hold on!

Yes, #JHEQX. Again. I know.

But sorry, over the last few days I was very... busy... 🍷🎄

And looking into the #JHEQX roll, I can't say that I fully understand it.

(and based on the discussions, it looks like I'm not alone...)

Let's see what happened 👇
The trade sparked many heated conversations on Twitter, with everyone trying to understand what exactly will be its impact.

Some argued that there's a huge delta to buy, which might move the markets.

Others claimed that it's all been priced in already, and no money can be made.
What I want to understand is:

• Was there a huge delta to buy?
• If there was, why was the market down on 31 Dec?
• If there wasn't, why?
• If it's priced in, then how?
• What mechanics allowed #JHEQX to alleviate the market impact?

Read 30 tweets

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