A few words on Russian disinformation, false flag ops, & general propaganda. I see smart people commenting on how transparently fake, false, & dumb the entire production seems. Timelines, actors, statements, signatures, nothing lines up. Thats true, but none of it matters. 1/6
The quality of disinformation is not what matters. It's the audience and the circumstances around it. If the audience is international, then the aim is to pollute the info environment b/c when people have access to too much information, its hard to decipher whats true. 2/6
If the audience is domestic, or anyone in the world with access to RT (or even Fox News now), then the task is even easier since people who have been fed a steady diet of half-truths and outright lies, don't care about timelines & OSINT investigations. 3/6
We also know that people who are told repeatedly that others who look and think just like them are being persecuted and murdered for WHO THEY ARE won't bother verifying timelines or logical consistency--they've been primed to be angry and afraid, and they are. 4/6
For any audience, we know that people tend to believe what aligns with their priors, even if it's been debunked or proven false. So whoever is bought in already is staying on board. 5/6
Yes, we should absolutely trace and publicize how false, fake, and dumb the Russian disinformation and broader propaganda campaign is. But we can't be surprised that it nonetheless resonates w/ intended audiences, in Russia and around the world. 6/6
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I work on military technology and I swear if I read another article counting the number of Javelins arriving in Ukraine my head is going to explode. Here is what I want to know:
- How many viable bomb shelters do they have in Kyiv, Kharkiv & Odessa? 1/4
-How many hospitals ready for a massive influx of trauma casualties? Are they calling for blood donation? What's the doctor/nurses to population ratio?
-Are the local authorities preparing for food, fuel, clean water & medicine shortages? 2/4
-What is the contingency for mass displacement? What are Ukraine's neighbors going to do if there is a refugee crisis? Is the US getting ready to issue emergency visas to Ukrainians in high-risk of Russian targeting and/or relatives of US citizens & nationals? 3/4
Here is something I keep thinking about. Russian military posture & troop movements increasingly point toward a major ground offensive into Ukraine. Geography, politics, operational reality all suggest that it will be hard to avoid urban warfare. This is a nightmare scenario.1/8
I want be clear here - if this happens, we are going to witness massive destruction, displacement and death. I say this for 3 reasons.
1. Urban warfare is devastatingly violent, resulting in very high numbers of casualties, especially among civilians. 2/8
2. Russia’s way of urban warfare—whether besieging Grozny or bombarding Aleppo—does not prioritize precision, differentiating between civilians & combatants, or protecting civilians & minimizing collateral damage. 3/8
Let's pump the breaks here for a minute. I've said this many times before, but as someone who focused on urban warfare before entering the tech/AI space, I have some reservations about what high tech can and cannot do in urban environments. Some thoughts:
1. Urban environments are both congested in communications signals and at times inaccessible/unreliable. So you have to think about how you're going to keep these systems communicating w/ operators AND each other WHILE accounting for enemy interference, electronic warfare, etc.
2. Before anything else, you gotta ask-what problem is the tech solving? So here its abt identifying & targeting enemy combatants under the assumption algorithms will improve to a point where they can do that reliably. That's a huge problem & a really hopeful assumption, imo.
Everyone is busy with budget stuff, but I have thoughts about the digital authoritarianism argument so you're gonna hear them:
1. The argument that technology is better for dictatorships than democracies is a hypothesis which remains empirically untested.
2. You can't claim that tech savvy dictatorships endure longer than their pre-tech predecessors and less tech savvy peers w/out showing me a regime survival analysis. Whats the cut-off point for pre and post tech? How do you define autocracy or dictatorship?
The longest ruling regimes are monarchies which obviously aren't democratic. Is their survival due to tech? Some of the other longest ruling dictators are in sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia, not areas know for their tech savvy.
This is a very interesting article and I'm excited to see more scholarly writing on urban warfare, especially work that challenges some conventional wisdom. I have some quick thoughts. 1/
The article argues that the urban environment, just like the jungle, is neutral - it's neither good nor bad, and it manifests differently, but with equal impact, upon all sides. I disagree. 2/
First of all, what is the urban environment? I didn't see a definition in the article, but by most accounts, we're talking people, structures, and infrastructure. 3/
I see a lot of smart people and esp my fellow political scientists are in search of strategy & reason behind this latest attack/detract Iran story. I feel your pain. But for the love of all that is holy, please stop trying to find sense where none exists. 1/
These are not strategically sophisticated people. They don’t understand or care about how signaling to foreign powers works, if they did, we’d see consistency, minimal uniformity of msg, resolve, and/or directionality of some kind. 2/
Instead, the only constant is the President’s fragile ego. This means decisions are made in line w/ who/what Trump likes/dislikes at any given moment, which shifts depending on who he last spoke with or watched on TV, and who was very nice or very unfair to him. 3/