Lucian Kim Profile picture
Feb 21 4 tweets 1 min read
Questions after Putin recognizes separatist statelets DNR and LNR:
-Where are their borders? Current front line? Or administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, most of which Kyiv still controls? One nightmare scenario is DNR/LNR seeking to expand with Russian help.
-How does Kyiv react to further encroachment on Ukrainian sovereignty? Putin is openly challenging Zelensky to give up more Ukrainian territory without a fight. Even if Kyiv refrains, Putin will find pretext if he wants to escalate.
-How does West react? If Russian military openly enters DNR/LNR "on invitation" of puppet leaders, does that constitute a "minor incursion" or an "invasion," and what sanctions will be activated?
-How does recognition of DNR/LNR help Putin's ultimate goal of controlling—not just hobbling—Ukraine? Appears to be part of a Kremlin plan that's only just unfolding.

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More from @Lucian_Kim

Feb 21
Putin begins his fireside chat on recognition of Ukrainian separatist statelets by calling into question the legitimacy of modern Ukraine's borders.
Putin attacks Lenin and Communist Party of Soviet Union for destroying "historical Russia," says that despite "injustice, deception and plundering of Russia," Russians recognized and even helped newly independent states, including Ukraine, after collapse of USSR.
Putin: Elections in Ukraine serve as cover for redistribution of wealth among oligarchic clans; corruption has eaten away at Ukrainian statehood. Radicals took advantage of people's discontent in 2014.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 18
I covered 2008 Russia-Georgia War. First potshots and shelling from separatist region whose residents Putin had given Russian passports, then baseless Kremlin claims of "genocide" and massive invasion by Russian troops who had just finished exercises. Not exactly a new playbook.
The difference will be in how Kyiv reacts. Georgia was led by impetuous leader who struck back believing the US had his back; Ukrainians have few illusions about what happens next if they take Putin's bait.
Even as Ukrainians sensibly show restraint, there's no defense against manufactured crisis. By accusing Kyiv of imminent assault and calling for evacuation of civilians to Russia, Kremlin-backed separatists lay groundwork for images of refugees, "genocide" and calls to action.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 18, 2021
Distressing news: Catherine Serou, an American studying in the Russian city of Nizhny Novgorod, has been missing since Tuesday. The last sign of life was a text message to her mother in the US: "In a car with a stranger. I hope I'm not being abducted."
After serving a tour in Afghanistan as a Marine and earning 2 degrees at UC Davis, US citizen Catherine Serou has gone missing near the Russian city of Nizhny Novgorod, where she came to study half a year before the pandemic. npr.org/2021/06/18/100…
Update: Russian federal investigators say Catherine Serou has been found dead; suspect arrested. My deepest condolences to her family, especially to her mother Beccy Serou, who hadn't given up hope when I spoke to her Friday. sledcom.ru/news/item/1584…
Read 5 tweets
Feb 29, 2020
Cops block off central Moscow boulevards in advance of memorial march for Boris Nemtsov, opposition leader gunned down outside Kremlin 5 years ago.
Muscovites line up at security checkpoint to take part in protest march.
As protesters stream past him, man holds sign saying, “thank you for coming.”
Read 11 tweets
Jan 16, 2020
24 hours ago, this man was unknown to 99% of Russians. Now the Duma is about to confirm Russia's chief tax inspector, Mikhail Mishustin, as PM.
"Russian cabinet resigns" is a misleading headline. The real news is that Putin
a) responded to popular discontent by sacking Medvedev,
b) laid the legal groundwork for ruling Russia indefinitely.
Unclear if Medvedev was really demoted by being assigned deputy head of Security Council, a post that doesn't exist yet. Possible that Putin will call on Medvedev to take over an emasculated presidency in 2024, while he presides over State Council as supreme leader.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 9, 2019
Breaking: Putin arrives in Paris for peace talks with Zelenskiy, Macron, Merkel; motorcade heads for Élysée Palace.
Putin-Zelenskiy meeting not just hugely significant for fate of Ukraine, but for Macron's initiative to normalize relations with Russia after 5 years of sanctions.
Zelenskiy had hoped to secure a White House visit so he could meet Putin with a strong show of US support. Instead, Washington is tearing itself apart over Ukraine; Macron reaching out to Putin; Merkel heading into retirement.
Read 14 tweets

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