Recently I returned from my second trip to Ukraine since May. I spoke to dozens of officials, soldiers, opposition figures, foreign diplomats, analysts, civil society activists—and ordinary Ukrainians who are bearing the brunt of Russia’s invasion. Here are some impressions. Russia has seized the initiative but is not strong enough to make a strategic breakthrough. Ukraine is faced with a conundrum: People want the fighting to end but refuse to surrender. They have no trust in Putin and want a security guarantee to deter Russia from attacking again.

A senior Ukrainian officer based in the Kharkiv region tells me the situation is “not critical but very tense everywhere.” The Russians have forced Ukraine to divert troops from Donetsk and are probing the Ukrainian lines. Russia is not in a position to make a major attack. 🧵 Ukraine has accepted it’s on the defensive and is stabilizing the line of contact, says the senior Ukrainian officer. The Russians are trying to establish a cordon sanitaire along the border. They launch assaults every day. There are many wounded on both sides.

.@oleksiireznikov, Ukraine’s defense minister at the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, was in Washington today. He had some interesting things to say. Reflecting on how far the West has come in supporting Ukraine, Reznikov recalled how he once was told that Stingers were impossible and now Ukraine is about to receive its first F-16s. “What is impossible today becomes possible tomorrow,” he said.

Having just returned from Kyiv, I’d like to share some main takeaways from my meetings with political and military actors, people both supportive and critical of the Zelensky administration, as well as ordinary Ukrainians I met along the way. Most remarkable is Ukrainians’ resilience and unity in the third year of a relentless, unprovoked attack by Russia. Although there is grumbling—Ukraine is a democracy—there is broad consensus for the need to keep fighting and awareness of the dire consequences of losing the war.

Just submitted my 375-page, peer-previewed book manuscript to @ColumbiaUP. It was a little harder to conceive than a real baby, but now it's just 9 months away from delivery. This book is based on my almost 20 years reporting from Ukraine and Russia. It is an accessible but detailed history of Putin's transformation into an embittered tyrant who saw it as his historical mission to reconquer Ukraine.

New: Dalai Lama's representative in Russia, Telo Tulku, resigns as leader of Buddhists in Russia's Kalmykia leader after Russian officials brand him a "foreign agent" for opposing Putin's war and openly supporting Ukraine. khurul.ru/2023/01/28/obr… Telo Tulku, also known as Erdne Ombadykow, was born to a Kalmyk immigrant family in US, told his parents at age 4 he wanted to become a monk and was educated in India. In 1991 he made his first trip to Kalmykia, a southern Russian region where Buddhism is the traditional faith.

My latest for @ForeignPolicy in 5 tweets:
On the surface, Ramzan Kadyrov sends the message that Chechnya, once Russia's most rebellious region, is now its most loyal. In fact, the outsize role Kadyrov has come to play only highlights Russia's fragility. foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/19/che… That's not to say Russia's regions are about to break with Moscow. Putin's vaunted "power vertical" holds regional leaders on a tight leash by keeping them dependent on financial and political support.

Putin's "elite" gathers in Kremlin to hear him declare 4 Ukrainian regions Russian territory. Hours earlier, Russian missiles struck the capital of Zaporizhzhia, one of those regions, reportedly killing at least 20 people. Putin starts his speech after making his "elite" squirm 18 minutes, justifies illegal annexation of territories with passing reference to UN Charter, then jumps to his most dangerous hobby: history.

In 2014, I spent several days in Izium, Ukraine, after Russian proxy forces withdrew from nearby Sloviansk, the first target of the Russian-backed insurgency. Izium was sleepy and peaceful. But there were reminders of past conflicts, like a Soviet monument to 94 Bolshevik fighters killed by White forces in 1919...

Not without reason is Putin often called a master tactician but poor strategist. From a strategic point of view, Putin's attack on Ukraine has thrown back Russia to its weakest position since World War II.
My latest piece for @kennaninstitute: wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/russ… Strategically, the status quo ante was favorable to Russia, since the simmering conflict was draining Ukraine's scarce resources and hobbling its aspirations to join the EU and NATO. The US, Germany and France were uninterested in inflaming tensions with Russia over Ukraine.

Putin has made a grave miscalculation, the magnitude of which we are just beginning to understand. The longer it goes on, the more Putin’s war will pose new dangers to Russia—and the survival of his own regime. wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/puti… The secrecy with which Putin made his fateful decision was embodied by the spectacle of his spluttering foreign intelligence chief, who in a televised meeting in February showed a complete lack of knowledge of Putin’s designs on Ukraine.

Questions after Putin recognizes separatist statelets DNR and LNR:
-Where are their borders? Current front line? Or administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, most of which Kyiv still controls? One nightmare scenario is DNR/LNR seeking to expand with Russian help. -How does Kyiv react to further encroachment on Ukrainian sovereignty? Putin is openly challenging Zelensky to give up more Ukrainian territory without a fight. Even if Kyiv refrains, Putin will find pretext if he wants to escalate.

Putin begins his fireside chat on recognition of Ukrainian separatist statelets by calling into question the legitimacy of modern Ukraine's borders. Putin attacks Lenin and Communist Party of Soviet Union for destroying "historical Russia," says that despite "injustice, deception and plundering of Russia," Russians recognized and even helped newly independent states, including Ukraine, after collapse of USSR.

I covered 2008 Russia-Georgia War. First potshots and shelling from separatist region whose residents Putin had given Russian passports, then baseless Kremlin claims of "genocide" and massive invasion by Russian troops who had just finished exercises. Not exactly a new playbook. The difference will be in how Kyiv reacts. Georgia was led by impetuous leader who struck back believing the US had his back; Ukrainians have few illusions about what happens next if they take Putin's bait.

Distressing news: Catherine Serou, an American studying in the Russian city of Nizhny Novgorod, has been missing since Tuesday. The last sign of life was a text message to her mother in the US: "In a car with a stranger. I hope I'm not being abducted." After serving a tour in Afghanistan as a Marine and earning 2 degrees at UC Davis, US citizen Catherine Serou has gone missing near the Russian city of Nizhny Novgorod, where she came to study half a year before the pandemic. npr.org/2021/06/18/100…

Cops block off central Moscow boulevards in advance of memorial march for Boris Nemtsov, opposition leader gunned down outside Kremlin 5 years ago. Muscovites line up at security checkpoint to take part in protest march.

24 hours ago, this man was unknown to 99% of Russians. Now the Duma is about to confirm Russia's chief tax inspector, Mikhail Mishustin, as PM. "Russian cabinet resigns" is a misleading headline. The real news is that Putin
a) responded to popular discontent by sacking Medvedev,
b) laid the legal groundwork for ruling Russia indefinitely.

Breaking: Putin arrives in Paris for peace talks with Zelenskiy, Macron, Merkel; motorcade heads for Élysée Palace. Putin-Zelenskiy meeting not just hugely significant for fate of Ukraine, but for Macron's initiative to normalize relations with Russia after 5 years of sanctions.

Your bus isn’t late, it’s just taking part in Moscow’s absurd Parade of City Services Vehicles. Moscow cops parade on Garden Ring without their iconic police buses used to haul away protesters.

Moscow’s street-cleaning fleet is out in force—to block the way of anti-government protesters. On route of planned protest march along Boulevard Ring, Muscovites enjoy a late summer day.

For third consecutive day, Muscovites protest for free and fair city council elections. “Every day!” they chant. “Russia without Putin!” Several hundred Muscovites, most of them young, gather on central square to shout “Putin is a thief!” and ”Lustration!”