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Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
@SStapczynski
Feb 22, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Putin said he’s recognizing two self-proclaimed separatist republics in eastern Ukraine and plans to send “peacekeeping forces” 🇷🇺

📈 Brent oil hit $97/bbl (7-year high) #OOTT
📈 Conflict or retaliatory Western sanctions could upend flows of commodities

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
📈 WTI crude oil futures climbed more than 3% from Friday, after not closing Monday due to the US holiday, to $94 a barrel
📈 Gold touched an eight-month high
📈 Silver, platinum and palladium all gained

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Russia is a major supplier of raw materials, so a potential conflict/sanctions could impact everything from oil and gas to aluminum and nickel 🇷🇺👇

This “could spawn a butterfly effect, sending commodity prices spiraling higher as supply woes multiply”

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
📈 Brent oil soars to $97.66 a barrel in early Asian trading on Tuesday. That's the highest since September 2014

$100 oil is just a hair away at this point

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Metals prices also rising as a conflict in Ukraine or retaliatory sanctions would potentially upend flows from Russia

📈 Aluminum surges to highest level in about 13 years
📈 Nickel jumps to highest since 2011
European natural gas surged (about a third of Europe's gas comes from Russia)

📈 Dutch gas futures, a European benchmark, jumped as much as 13% to 82 euros a megawatt-hour

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
📈 Brent crude oil futures hit $99.3 a barrel, the highest level since 2014
📈 $100 oil is a smidge away
Meanwhile, surging commodity prices threaten to drive up inflation and upend the global economic recovery ⚠️

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More from @SStapczynski

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Jan 1
END OF AN ERA: Russia's oldest gas export route to Europe halted

For over five decades, Europe benefited from a steady flow of Russian gas via pipelines in Ukraine. That deal has now expired

While that won't trigger shortages in Europe, it does mark a historic shift

Thread🧵 Image
In the midst of the Cold War, the first large-scale pipeline to export Russian gas via Ukraine was completed in 1967

The USSR wanted to trade/profit with the capitalist West, while also exerting soft power. Meanwhile, the West needed fuel to feed their growing industries Image
The first deal between the USSR and a Western Europe nation was with Austria's OMV in June 1968

This makes sense, given Austria's ties with the USSR and its neutral position during the Cold War. But the 23-year deal to buy Russian gas was the first of several dominos to fall Image
Read 14 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Aug 30, 2024
How Japan ignored climate critics and built a global natural gas empire
🇯🇵❤️🚢

Every six hours, somewhere in the world, an LNG shipment controlled by a Japanese company leaves a port. However, these tankers are only the tip of the iceberg

A thread 🧵
bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-…
Image
Japan began importing LNG in 1969 (see attached thread about that)

Over the last 50+ years, the Japanese government and its companies have worked together to unlock new supplies from Brunei and Malaysia to Indonesia and Russia

How does Japan, a country with little resources of its own, spearhead a fossil fuel industry?

They agree to buy the gas. And a lot of it

Japan’s long-term purchase agreements underpinned many LNG export projects

The first LNG cargoes from Qatar to Australia went to Japan Image
Read 23 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Aug 17, 2024
Malaysia founded the oil & gas giant Petronas 50 years ago today, adding to a wave of countries nationalizing lucrative fuel supplies 🇲🇾 🛢️

Here is a short thread of about the creation of Petronas, one of the most important and influential Asian fossil fuel producers🧵
Shell discovered Malaysia’s first oil well in 1910

(Shell first commenced operations in Malaysia in 1891)

“The Grand Old Lady” produced for decades, and put Sarawak on the map Image
Over the next 50 years, Shell was busy

👉 They Built Malaysia’s first refinery in 1914

👉 Installed the first petrol pump in Kuala Lumpur in 1921

👉 And in the 1960s accelerated offshore exploration Image
Read 13 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Aug 5, 2024
An LNG tanker docked at a sanctioned Russian facility has no insurer, is managed by a little known Indian company and is pretending to be somewhere else
🇷🇺🚢

This is how Russia is trying to circumvent US measures against its new Arctic LNG project 🧵
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Russian gas/LNG had largely avoided sanctions since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine

That changed in Nov 2023, when the US imposed sanctions against the new Arctic LNG 2 project

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
While the facility began production in December, no LNG has been shipped as restrictions kept foreign companies away and stopped delivery of the specialized, ice-ready carriers

This was a key area where Western sanctions actually had a tangible impact on Russia Image
Read 13 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Jun 27, 2024
The dark horse of US LNG 🇺🇸🐴

A decade ago, an ex-banker & lawyer were driving across Texas in a rental car trying to raise money for an LNG export project

Today, they're the billionaire owners of Venture Global ensnared by politics and angry customers
bloomberg.com/news/features/…
For nearly half a century, the LNG industry was dominated by petrostates and Big Oil

The shale boom upended that, shifting the advantage to the US and opening the door to entrepreneurs, like Venture Global

These outsiders propelled the US to become the world's top LNG exporter Image
First on the scene was Charif Souki, a little-known name at the time who founded Cheniere, the top US LNG exporter. He was ousted in 2015

Souki then founded Tellurian but struggled to capture lightning in a bottle a 2nd time. Now he owes lenders millions
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 20 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
May 5, 2024
How US sanctions are strangling Putin’s ambitions to grow LNG exports
🇺🇸 🥊🇷🇺

Arctic LNG 2 has been ready to start exports for months

And yet it sits virtually idle, the first piece of Russia’s energy complex to be halted by US restrictions

A thread 🧵

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Some background:

🚢 Russia has long sought to increase its share of the global LNG market, but the war and the subsequent sharp drop in pipeline gas Europe have reinforced the importance of these ambitions

Moscow wants to expand LNG output three-fold by 2030 Image
Enter Arctic LNG 2, a massive complex which would boost Russia’s LNG exports by 60%

The primary mission was to develop new LNG customers in East Asia by sending fuel across the Northern Sea Route, using enormous icebreaker vessels to traverse the frozen waters Image
Read 20 tweets

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